'Peak Oil' far, far away


#2868

#2869

I was referring to Tesla’s grid back up solution. [If this doesn’t entice Tesla Fan Boy #1 back to the Pin nothing will!]

Anyway, I think anyone living in an apartment would question that.

It’s become accepted wisdom that powerwall are the solution (Because transmission loss!) Bit it amounts to duplication of effort if everyone has them. Efficient generation (large scale wind) and shared storage make more sense for the masses who haven’t the space, capital or interest in localised storage. Particularly in windy, cloudy Northern latitudes where PV performance is particularly poor


#2870

I think you’re right. Li-ion is clunky for grid-level storage. Requires silly number of individual cells. The management and cooling becomes a big issue, not to mention fire safety. A flow battery stores the energy external to the cell. Power output is determined by the area of the membrane, but capacity is determined independently by the volume of the electrolyte tanks.


#2871

Fresh from the court case over his last scam, Andrea Rossi is busy setting up the next one. Big announcement here about his next LENR demonstration. (When I say “big announcement”, I mean paid advertisement with the Accesswire outfit, posing as news). This stuff reads marginally better than a Nigerian scam letter. I simply can’t believe that people continually fall for it, to the tune of tens of millions of dollars. After each failure he sticks two new letters on the end of the device name (now “eCat QX”) and claims a different – though still unexplained – mode of operation. Meanwhile, he still runs the bogus Journal of Nuclear Physics, wherein the bogus articles are followed by Rossi chatting to his own sockpuppets in the comments.


#2872

Things looking decidedly ropy for PDVSA, the Venezuelan state oil company. They’ve been teetering on the brink of default for some time and this month actually missed some bond payments, although they were eventually paid late. So far they (and the country itself) have been declared to be in partial default. For another interesting twist, see the video in this piece from last month when PDVSA escaped by the skin of its teeth. As well as the bondholders, PDVSA has huge debts to Russia’s Rosneft. A default could mean PDVSA losing its crown jewels, the American oil refining and gasoline retailer CITGO. Something tells me the Yanks would not stand for Rosneft taking control of oil refineries in Texas, Louisiana and Illinois (though it could make for some great leftist conspiracy theories about Trump :smiley: ). See also the Venezuela thread.


#2873

#2874

Is that guy still at that nonsense?

[Editted 22/11/2017 based on Dolanbakers wise suggestion to not give this Shyster more google oxygen by including links to his articles]


#2875

We really should not be wasting bandwidth repeating that crap over the internet, each and every post with his name or his “products” mentioned puts up the google score.
Edited to make no gain for the scammer in google.


#2876

eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/exec_summ.php


#2877

I’ll be watching. Best source for info on this is (he is organising the demo):
animpossibleinvention.com/blog/

Who knows? He apparently disavows that press release:
e-catworld.com/2017/11/18/rossi- … s-release/


#2878

Good news – Maduro has brought in an army general with no experience in the energy sector to fix PDVSA’s problems. XX


#2879

OPEC and friends agreed to extend cuts through the end of next year at today’s Vienna meeting.


#2880

Sounds like Baghdad and Ankara are colluding to cut the Kurds out of oil money.


#2881

Brent crude started the year at $55, hit a mid-year low of $45, and looks set to close the year at $65. WTI could see $60 at year end. Brent is up temporarily due to a crack discovered in the North Sea Forties pipeline, but there is also a general tightening of supply and the continuation of the OPEC cuts.


#2882

Hah. WTI hit $60 already in intraday trading today, on news of an explosion at a Libyan pipeline curtailing 90k bbl/d. Brent hit $67. That puts the two benchmarks at their highest since June and May 2015 respectively.


#2883

€1.40 a litre for petrol at the pumps can’t be too far away now. It will be interesting to see if US producers are able to ramp up production again to force the price down, or will they wait until the price rises enough to make it “worth it!”


#2884

Already 139.9 most places around.certainly on the motorways. No doubt the cso inflation stats will have some other wheeze to bury this price rise.


#2885

That’s the $64k question. It’s why medium term estimates of WTI prices vary anywhere from $55 to $75. It could also have a knock-on effect: OPEC might be happy to keep supply off the table to trade price for market share as long as the strategy is working, but if the Yanks undercut them again you could see the taps opened once more. Then the question is do we head back to the $30 region, or will the last couple of years of under-investment limit that effect. I suspect the latter, but wouldn’t be surprised either way. There are some analysts who say the limit of how much more US shale can expand is not far away. On the other hand, the “peakers” have never yet been correct.


#2886

As oil is a finite source of energy that has hard physical limits, the “peakers” will be right one day, it’s just that fracking delayed that by about a decade. After that, price rationing will prevent any shortages for those who can afford it.


#2887

I think you mean fracking delayed the most recently predicted onset of doom. Other factors staved off the doom that’s been predicted for the last 150 years. And even the decade delay predicted for fracking is already too pessimistic as shale shows no sign of peaking after more than a decade.*

  • (Yeah, I know, the price collapse reduced the extraction rate. When they’re still wrong in a few years time, the peakers will have another excuse. I’ve learned that peakers use only one excuse at a time. When they are eventually proved wrong beyond all doubt there is already another excuse lined up in which the peakers invest their unassailable belief. Which is why I just repeat the truism: the peakers will be wrong until they’re right, and they’ve never been right yet).