'Peak Oil' far, far away


#2988

WTI down 4 bucks today alone -16% to $22.60. This is some unwind


#2989

Doesn’t suit the environmentalists, ROI on renewables v’s oil is looking bad


#2990

With prices this low, they’ll leave it in the ground!
There can’t be too many fields that can turn a profit at $25 a barrel.


#2991

I thought a shale well costs were sunk upfront, once they are pumping it’s cheap?


#2992

No, AFAIK. It’s horizontal pipes that do the fracturing. You’re not tapping into a big tank like structure, you’re essentially wringing out the oil and gas


#2993

The have to pay there loans which the ran up on the assumption of 70 dollar oil. Most will be bust in a short time


#2994

Recently breakevens were much less $40-45 .And hedged but only hedged somewhat because they never thought prices would go that low


#2995

Would they like 5 or 10 dollar oil?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-19/how-low-can-oil-go-traders-see-crude-prices-heading-below-20?sref=ve5evhCK


#2996

West Texas collapsed again, down to 18 bucks a barrel yesterday


#2997

Looks like we’re about to go on the supply price rollercoaster!
Collapse in demand - excessive supply - low prices - wells shutting in - eventual increase in demand - surplus supply consumed - lack of fresh supplied - oil producers refuse to reopen wells until prices rise to the “correct” range - huge leap in prices untill supply resumes.


#2998

Oil price collapse, going negative if you’re producing the wrong stuff!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-17/texas-oil-at-2-a-barrel-raises-specter-of-negative-prices

Blockquote
Crude prices in America’s oil capital are getting dangerously close to zero.
Buyers bidding for crude in Texas, the birthplace of the shale revolution, are offering as little as $2 a barrel for some oil streams, a precipitous markdown from a month ago. The slumping value of physical barrels is raising the possibility that Texas producers may soon have to pay customers to take crude off their hands.
.
Negative prices have already hit more obscure corners of the American oil market amid a bearish trifecta of collapsing demand, swelling supplies and limited storage capacity. The first U.S. grade to bid under zero was a small landlocked crude stream known as Wyoming Asphalt Sour, which went for negative 19 cents a barrel last month.


#2999

At last, the prospect of free energy and we get the Greens!

They will block the Shannon LNG terminal and we will need thousands more wind farms despoiling our hillsides instead.


#3000

WTI hit $13 this morning. In inflation adjusted terms I believe that might be the lowest price ever since records began in the 1860s, but certainly since the crash of '29. As in the GFC, they’ve started to requisition floating storage to hold the glut.


#3001

If their storage facilities start to overflow, they’ll have to start paying people to take it away!


#3002

It’s WTI, so floating storage isn’t much good unless you can teleport it to Cushing! The future expires tomorrow so unless you already have local storage you’re absolutely fucked. But yeah floating storage is proving very lucrative. Tanker rates hitting 80k a day IIRC

Retail investors dabbling in futures are about to get spit roasted. The main ETF is seeing huge retail inflows.

The spread in CL between May and June is almost the same as May flatprice! That’s truly historic


#3003


#3004

I really didn’t expect this to happen so quickly!
:astonished:


#3005

I thought prices would fall sub 20 but today is a historic day.


#3006

I just read that in polish newspaper, moreover according to few tracking sites diesel price in some places in my town are apparently below 4PLN, which currently means 88cents. E95 petrol goes as low as 3.39PLN in petrol stations which belongs to big grocery chain Auchan. Crazy prices, need to check out my local station tomorrow.


#3007

Important to remember that the negative prices are only for certain landlocked US oils, the real world price is still currently around $25 a barrel, I would be really amazed if that went to zero!

Could it??