Planning Permissions for dwellings since Peak


#1

The latest Planning Permission stats are out. Thought I’d compare them to peak.

I’ve looked at the CSO stats from Q1 1993 to Q3 2012
1993 to 1999 see page 6
2000 to 2004 see page 6
2005 to 2007 see page 6
2008 to 2012 see page 6

Number of Dwelling Units Approved

**Houses **
Quarter 3 2011; 1,887
Quarter 3 2012: 1,540
Annual % change: -18.4%

Quarter 3 2012: 1,638
Peak Q2 2005: 21,938
Peak % change: -92.5%

Apartments
Quarter 3 2011: 625
Quarter 3 2012: 98
Annual % change: -84.3%

Quarter 3 2012: 98
Peak Q3 2003: 10,065
Peak % change: -99.0%

Total
Quarter 3 2011: 2,512
Quarter 3 2012: 1,638
Annual % change: -34.8%


#2

No surprise there. Oversupply of houses in some areas, many builders broke, credit hard to get. Will stay low for a few more years at least I think.


#3

I would expect to see an increase in greater Dublin area within 24 months.


#4

Personally I am surprised there were applications for 98.


#5

Why will it take that long?


#6

I know of some people who’ve done applications in order to be seen to be doing something, having been pressurised by the bank.


#7

Indo reporting drop in Apts today

independent.ie/national-news … 32372.html


#8

cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releas … q42012.pdf

Q4 2012 figures out today

Houses down 7.6% annually
Apts down 30.4%
Total down 14.1%


#9

Planning Permissions
Quarter 1 2013

Number of Dwelling Units Approved
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … rter12013/

Houses
Quarter 1 2012: 1,263
Quarter 1 2013: 1,860
Annual % change: +47.3%

Quarter 1 2013: 1,860
Peak Q2 2005: 21,938
Peak % change: -91.5%

Apartments
Quarter 1 2012: 92
Quarter 1 2013: 448
Annual % change: +387%

Quarter 1 2013: 448
Peak Q3 2003: 10,065
Peak % change: -95.5%

Total
Quarter 1 2012: 1,355
Quarter 1 2013: 2,308
Annual % change: +70.3%


#10

I think in part most of this new building is being brought about by the lack of properties on the market and not by a physical shortage of properties.
I know of a few houses that are under construction near houses that have been partially constructed upto first and second fixing and have then been left to rot.
My only hope for the people constructing new properties is that the market distortion that has been introduced is not causing a new round of malinvestment.
I must admit, I have thought of building myself, which is crazy looking around this area at the empties. The problem is that the empties are empty and not part of the market.


#11

Building a one off can be crazy expensive. We have been looking at it recently. ESB, water, waste, telephone, access road, planning, architects fees, local authority fees. I’d say there is the guts of 50k before you even pour the foundations.


#12

Planning Permissions
Quarter 2 2013

Number of Dwelling Units Approved
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … arter22013

Houses
Quarter 2 2012: 1,166
Quarter 2 2013: 1,496
Annual % change: +28.3%

Quarter 2 2013: 1,496
Peak Q2 2005: 21,938
Peak % change: -93.2%

Apartments
Quarter 2 2012: 240
Quarter 2 2013: 430
Annual % change: +79.2%

Quarter 2 2013: 430
Peak Q3 2003: 10,065
Peak % change: -95.7%

Total
Quarter 2 2012: 1,406
Quarter 2 2013: 1,926
Annual % change: +37.0%


#13

Planning Permissions
Quarter 3 2013

Number of Dwelling Units Approved
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … rter32013/

Houses
Quarter 3 2012: 1,540
Quarter 3 2013: 1,252
Annual % change: -18.7%

Quarter 3 2013: 1,540
Peak Q2 2005: 21,938
Peak % change: -92.98%

Apartments
Quarter 3 2012: 98
Quarter 3 2013: 157
Annual % change: +60.2%

Quarter 3 2013: 98
Peak Q3 2003: 10,065
Peak % change: -99.03%

Total
Quarter 3 2012: 1,638
Quarter 3 2013: 1,409
Annual % change: -14.0%

Edit: To Clarify, these permissions are for both New Construction and Extension/Alternation and Conversion. The breakdown is not provided by CSO.

By way of anecdote, there were 10,518 permissions granted Q1 to Q3 2013, of which 2,565 were for New Construction of Dwellings (24.4%)


#14

I see all these big minus figures but I can imagine the screaming headlines:

“Planning Permission for Apartments up More Than 60% This Year!”


#15

I hear you.

Doesn’t bode well for stock levels either way for the coming future. Shortage of supply to continue for the foreseeable future


#16

Planning Permissions
Quarter 4 2013
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … rter42013/

Number of Dwelling Units Approved

Houses
Quarter 4 2012: 1,420
Quarter 4 2013: 1,394
Annual % change: -1.8%

Quarter 4 2013: 1,394
Peak Q2 2005: 21,938
Peak % change: -93.6%

Apartments
Quarter 4 2012: 431
Quarter 4 2013: 162
Annual % change: -62.4%

Quarter 4 2013: 1,556
Peak Q4 2003: 10,065
Peak % change: -84.5%

Total
Quarter 4 2012: 1,851
Quarter 4 2013: 1,556
Annual % change: -15.9%

These permissions are for both New Construction and Extension/Alternation and Conversion. The breakdown is not provided by CSO.
By way of anecdote, there were xxxx permissions granted in 2014 13,901 (Q1 3,275 Q2 3,368, Q3 3,875 Q4 3,383), of which 3,316 (Q1 862 Q2 772, Q3 931 Q4 751) were for New Construction of Dwellings (23.9%)


#17

Planning Permissions
Quarter 1 2014

cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … rter12014/

Number of Dwelling Units Approved

Houses
Quarter 1 2013: 1,860
Quarter 1 2014: 1,446
Annual % change: -22.3%

Quarter 1 2014: 1,446
Peak Q2 2005: 21,938
Peak % change: -93.4%

Apartments
Quarter 1 2013: 448
Quarter 1 2014: 158
Annual % change: -64.7%

Quarter 1 2014: 158
Peak Q4 2003: 10,065
Peak % change: -98.4%

Total
Quarter 1 2013: 2,308
Quarter 1 2014: 1,604
Annual % change: -30.5%

There were 13,901 permissions granted in 2013 (Q1 3,275 Q2 3,368, Q3 3,875 Q4 3,383), of which 3,316 (Q1 862 Q2 772, Q3 931 Q4 751) were for New Construction of Dwellings (23.9%)


#18

I blame not only the economic downturn and tight credit but also the additonal regulation on building with houses now needing to be heavily insulated, incorporating a renewable component and direct labour building being outlawed.


#19

Death to Cowboys & Indians.


#20

Because of the date of this law, it would have pulled forward projects from Q2 to Q1 - increasing the Q1 numbers.