Thank you 2Pack for your incisive dissection of my submission. You are right in what you say, that their rate did not go under the Total Replacement Rate (TFR) of 2.1 until around 1990. However it fell drastically from a rate of 3.2 in 1956, which has resulted in a big and growing bulge in the over 65 Age group. The over 50s would be again much greater and will act as a restraint on any economic expansion.
Your following comment is classic, and you certainly would be accepted with open arms in Leinster House and any other Establishment place in modern Ireland
This thinking has resulted in the current Housing Flux that the PropertyPin is so concerned about. Germany and old aged EU whose TFR is below 1.5 has invested close to €100Bn in Irish Property, increased house prices by up to three and four times, in a period when the CPI only increased by 35%. Why? We have the youngest population of working age in the Western World (this is a fertility thing!).
Our Business Schools or government etc has made no plans on how to handle this money. We are spending it on overpriced houses, gambling, holidays, cars, politicians pay the highest in the EU etc. The small percentage that has made money will have blowing the majority of it away in a couple of years. We are then left with the repayment of the whole lot in the form of up to forty year mortgages. What will happen? Wages will have to increase and it will be Goodbye to our USA companies (came here because our fertility rate was once high), whose stay on this Isle, we have surely shortened!
Yes, our Government has landed us in a right mess, because they too have a log jam in their brains when it comes to protecting us from the eddy, created from a title wave of panic from a rapidly aging EU. The only solution they have for the future is to put more money into Pensions! It just is not the fashion to mention falling birth rates! At the moment, it is not a massive theoretical problem of a chicken and egg situation. Yet we are building up a huge future disaster by constantly taking the wrong option, because the F word is not mentionable!
Our young people have to pay the pensions of: our pay-as-you-go retired Civil Servants; into a fund for future retired Civil servants; the** pensions of Germans **etc which equates roughly to half of their mortgage repayment; and after that they have to take out **their own pensions **under possible future penalty from our enlightened government.
Don’t worry 2Pack, 95% of our population will side with your statement! Saving face is what it is all about for the future.
But no! 2Pack, I shall continue to mention the Fertility Rate when I think it is appropriate, otherwise any economic discussion is useless and leads to utter confusion e.g. the Irish Economy.