Poll: How would you vote in UK election?

Poll: How would you vote in UK election?

  • Labour
  • Conservative
  • Liberal Democrat
  • UKIP

0 voters

Assuming you were living in England which way would you vote among the four choices I’ve allowed?

What a depressing choice.

Recent poll suggests both Clegg and Farage’s seats are too close to call, would be interesting if both lose out.

Tory stunt of ‘promising’ to change the law so they can’t raise taxes shows the level of BS involved.

What is happening in scotland is the most significant thing in this election. Labour had scotland as a heartland. A poll today shows the snp winning every seat in scotland. That probably won’t happen but labour are out of scotland and the snp will hold the balance of power.

After the referendum last september I thought it would be a generation before scotland gets independance. Now I can see it within 10 years. And that quickly opens up northern ireland to be landed on to the ROI taxpayer.

Panorama during the week had US tipster Nate Silver (known for his accurate predictions in the last US presidential election) looking at the UK elections. His predicted outcome:

  • Tory 283
  • Labour 270
  • SNP 48
  • Lib Dem 24
  • DUP 8
  • UKIP 1
  • Others 16

This would be an incredibly messy outcome by UK norms – neither Labour + SNP, nor even Tory + Lib Dem + DUP + UKIP could put together a majority.

UK mainland outcome can surprise, remember John Major in 1992

I live here, work in the City so will be voting Conservative. Have no interest in voting for Labour given they vilify people like me on a daily basis and would like to increase my taxes significantly. I think the Conservatives play to the older voter far too much (pensioner bonds, not building on the green belt, immigration targets) but on the whole I’ll do much better under another Tory government than Labour. That being said I fully expect Miliband to be PM in two weeks time.

Why no Green option?

I saw that programme. When he gave those Seat predictions at the end I quickly jotted them down and immediately went to check how a leading bookmaker was predicting the outcome. It was almost exactly the same as Silver’s predictions.

A segment of the programme was filmed with Silver viewing the odds in a UK betting shop and he pointed out the accuracy of bookmaker’s odds in relation to General Election outcomes and other events. They have to get it right because they are risking their money on the outcome. Economists, Journalists, Stockbrokers even, don’t have to do that.

Without PR they aren’t going to get more than 1-2 seats. And that on a good day. Plaid Cwyru will do better.

To be honest, electoral chaos in the UK has been coming for some time. The same thing is happening in the UK as here - the older generation with fixed voting patterns is giving way to a younger generation that is less fixed and less enamoured of the traditional parties.

The Tories will have some difficulty in years to come as their traditional vote dies off (see FF and to a lesser extent FG…). Labour have ceded the left (see, er, Labour). UKIP are comically misnamed. Little England party would be more appropriate, but they and the SNP have taken the nationalist (with a small n) colours from the Tories in a similar way to SF here. To be fair to SF, they are more similar to the SNP than UKIP - there’s no overt racism or even particular sectarianism about SF in the south. Economic policy remains a weak point of most of the smaller parties and economic policy is what exercises the mind of the undecided in the last days before the election.

Picked one of 4 above in poll but would vote SNP

There’s so little to distinguish the two main parties that it’s hard to expect any allegiance from the younger generation. Cameron is a bit of a wet, and the boy leading Labour comes across as entitled but nevertheless whiny. Why didn’t they choose his brother?
However, I couldn’t vote for the Tories this time: it’s too depressing, almost 90 years after universal suffrage, to see a bunch of not-particularly-talented toffs running Britain.

UKIP will tear themselves apart in the not too distant future, particularly if they do ever get more than half a dozen MPs, when their internal inconsitencies can play out in public.

People outside the UK see UKIP as a simple right wing isolationist more or less racist conservative party, like the French FN, but in reality they’re much more complex than that (even disregarding the fact that the FN’s economics are pretty leftish dirigiste).

There are basically three main sub-UKIPs:

The Little England Party (Nigel Farage, et al): Economically rightish within the UK, but very uneasy with globalisation. They want “free” trade internationally, but only on their own terms and that certainly doesn’t mean the free movement of labour or foreign ownership of bits of Britain’s economy. They’re culturally conservative and socially moderately authoritarian and want a reasonably intrusive state, except in matters of domestic business and economics. Mainly ex-Tories and some ex-Labour.

The Libertarians (the Douglas Carswell faction): Agree with the LEP about withdrawing from the EU, but in their case it’s as much about growing EU legal, social, economic and cultural interference as about being swamped by Polish plumbers. Within the UK, they’ve no time for Merrie Olde Englande and want to roll back the state and get government out of people’s lives as far as possible. Economically the most right wing and socially much more liberal than the other two factions, they’re also less hung up about foreign ownership of UK assets than the LEP or the SELs (below). Mostly ex-Tories.

The Swivel Eyed Loons and closet racists: These are the ones who really do resemble the FN. They’re isolationist, xenophobic, sometimes racist and economically significantly to the left of both the LEP and the Libertarians. The want tight borders, a big state that helps people like them, but nobody else and certainly not Johnny Foreigner and they want traditional culture and morality with a nationalistic emphasis. They are generally poor, badly educated and scared stiff by the modern world that has left them behind. SELs are a mixture of ex-BNP or EDL, ex-Labour and ex working class Tories.

At present Nigel Farage is keeping the lid on the SELs and the Libertarians are satisfied with simply getting out of the EU as a first aim, after which, with Scotland in the EU and out of the UK, they could probably work with the libertarian tendency in the Tories’ new inbuilt majority, but they’d start to lose patience with the authoritarian instincts of the other two factions and especially with the SEL’s left wing economics.
If you think the Tories’ feuds in the 90s were venomous, you ain’t seen nothing yet. Get out the popcorn and watch while UKIP get out the daggers.

Do you vote green in Ireland ?

Interesting, Labour, SNP SDLP is a possible government but there are a lot of marginal seats

telegraph.co.uk/news/general … ilver.html

Poll of polls from the New Statesman, includes some scenario-based what-ifs and data tuning:
may2015.com/category/poll-of-polls/

Labour in Scotland has long banged the “those dastardly English Tories don’t care about you” drum. Now that message has come back to bite them.

You have to laugh.

The polls up to now are one thing but in the last few days and on the day of the vote I’d expect a tory/lib dem bounce as the safe option. Interesting that the american pollster put tory/lib dem on 307 which is not too far off the required figure for a thin majority. 24 lib dems is a kicking for the smaller party but it’s not the wipeout some were suggesting.

The papers are not as influential as they were in 92 but they are giving opinion pieces now backing the tories.

If the Tories get in, they will continue to kill everything good about Britain. Just a terrifying prospect for anyone who actually LIVES in the UK who has given this any thought at all. This whole EU referendum business will destroy business confidence and don’t get me started on the NHS. There’s no great alternative but the Tories do have to be stopped.

Whatever about killing Britain surely Labour/SNP would hasten the killing of the UK.

There is no one with a monopoly on “terrifying prospects” btw.
I personally dislike the corporatisation of life that we all should be alert to “business confidence” when voting . Even then Labour would scare a lot of the British wealthy business types.

I live in the UK I feel no great terror. Despite Labour scaremongering the Conservatives aren’t going to gut the NHS, in fact they’ll do pretty much what they did in the last five years and what Labour did in the previous five years and yes that involves some private sector involvement but it’s not going to look radically different.

The EU referendum likely will be cast to the wayside in any coalition which will allow them into government, failing that they’ll try and get some pitiful concession from Europe to avoid having one and failing that the stay in side would win a referendum anyway. Business is just as scared of Miliband given he makes off the cuff populist promises on energy prices for example which create uncertainty too.