Poll - Predicting a Bottom

Would you consider buying at this point in time?

  • Yes
  • No

0 voters

Would it be possible to set up a poll similar to Green Bears sticky poll - to be run on three month intervals that asked the question:

“would you consider buying at this point in time” - with a yes or no answer.

I think that over the running such a poll over the next few years could be a powerful tool to predict a bottom - something that many people would be interested in. When the number of yes answers reaches 50% that might be close to a bottom (I suspect it would be zero at the moment).

The contributors to the property pin probably fall into 2 categories - pessimists and rationalists. The rationalists will probably call a bottom too early (just as they would call a top too early) and the pessimists will call a bottom too late (as they have a pessimistic bias) - but between the 2 groups averaged out over a whole community the result could be quite good.

If we get it wrong that could also be very illuminating as it would be an education on how accurate the debate is on this site.

One other point - I think its important to ask the question “at this point in time” as that is the closest to certainty that you can get.

I made an offer on a house during the week. It was refused.

Thats interesting - we have already got one yes more than I expected!

I’m not calling a bottom till prices reach fair value - by traditional measures, not makey-uppy bubblehead “affordability” bolloxology.

If that means I’ll never buy, then so be it. I for one refuse to be ripped off.

To quote the self professed “miserable Scottish trouble-maker” Hugh Hendry, “Only monkeys go looking for and picking bottoms”.

That said, I suspect there is quite some way to go before prices in the Irish property market enter a prolonged and sustainable upward run. I don’t however expect that we will see a straight line decline over the coming months/years, but the trend will be decidedly downward in both relative and real terms.

As for buying today … if you’re selling I have the financing, can close the deal quickly and want 50% off the asking price.

Blue Horseshoe

People might consider buying. They might even want to buy now but get held back by the financial implications.
The poll question would be better phrased as: “I want to buy enough to get a mortgage right now”

I sold my house this week.Sign the papers last Monday moving out in 2 weeks ,going renting.House went on the market this time last year had 3 sale agreeds fall thru.House sold for 6% less then what it went on the market for this time last year.I feel I have been very lucky

The right gaff, at the right price, I certainly would. I think that’s true of most.

We still have the recession to play out yet. I am in fact getting more pessimistic by the month.

By the end of this year there will be panic I feel. People are simply not being prepared for the implications of the recession that Ireland is now in. It has increasing signs of being a biggie (I fear for my own -2% forecast for this year, let alone 2009).

The media should be massaging expectations now.

Absolutely - i’m positively shocked by the lack of warnings about what a construction slowdown on the scale proposed (and apparently happening) will do to the economy.

Exactly - I’ve my place up for sale - 8 days on the market, 9 viewers so far and 3 offers less than 4% off the ask, all rejected as I believe I’ll get the asking. If I found the right house at the right price I’d buy right now. But I suspect I’ll be renting for a year.

For 4%, you’re a gambling man, SOC! But credit to you, that you are true to your principles…

Given all our phantom bidder threads, would you mind giving us an insight into what you have advised your EA to instruct bidders with at this point? :wink:

Bearbait, We also offered on a house this week, have been interested in the house for some time and was watching it closely.
House kept falling through (3 times to be exact!) and each time came back on the market at a reduced price. We put in an offer on Wed just to see and got a call today to say its accepted. Now we still have to get it surveyed but I believe its a good deal.
Got it for 25% less than the original asking price (10% less than the current asking price) We can easily afford mortgage repayments and its a big house with a big garden and lots of potential to extend, and 3 miles from Dublin city centre.
Will probably have wobbles over the next couple of weeks but at the minute pretty happy with the situation.

crashandburn would probably keel over at this post in joy but then again, I think 25% off peak is a pretty good definition of a crash… Or at least a fairly ugly collision…

Good man slipperyslope, hope it works out for ya on all fronts…

I just believe that the house is very competatively priced for the market - deliberately so to get potential buyers in the door as it’s in such good condition it should sell itself.

Have more viewings over the coming days so with the house only on the market a very short time (as agreed with the EA) we’re not making any decisions until after the remaining viewings (unles someone offers the asking :unamused:)

Thanks for the info, soc!

Doesn’t it really depend on how the house was priced to begin with - if it was competatively priced I’d agree - crash. But lets say it wasn’t - as is evident with a lot of properties currently advertised well over their real market value - there are a lot of people out there who still won’t accept the drop in prices which may add to the illusion of a crash as opposed to a correction. That’s my opinion anyway.

Best of luck with the purchase SlipperysSlope


Well, I’d look at it this way, not that I entirely accept your thesis but see alot of merit in it. Do you remember these phrases…

“House prices never go down…”

“You can’t lose with bricks and mortar”

“Ireland is different!!!”


But I’m a fickle person so that could change depending on what side of the bed I get of tomorrow or what article I read in the paper 8)