The pin called the retail banks in Irl. Remember the ‘BoI is the one to watch’ thread? You calling the central banks?
I think this is to the death.
The Fed balance sheet used to be split between gold and t bonds (which were as good as gold). Now it’s half Mortgage backed securities that it bought off the banks in 2008 aka Junk.
As for the t bonds…I’d be dubious about them with the US government as profligate as they currently are.
Gold is the only financial asset that is truly uncorrelated…which is one reason why it’s been money for five thousand years. The Fed has 8000 tonnes of Gods currency and in a crisis of confidence this will be the only asset backing the federal reserve note.
Where is all that Gold, do you think it might actually be much higher?
I think it might be way way higher than people believe.
Some pundits claim the US has less than some of the other top countries while others believe it to be totally gone. No audit. Fort Knox, empty!
Others believe Trump has managed to lay his hands on more, legally repatriated, and possibly also stores not known, held in other places (national parks?) fully secured - 'course there is the entire underground complex of tunnels and supposed city like facilities underground across the US, so it could be anywhere or many places at once.
The interior of Trump’s Trump tower apartment is lined with GOLD, Trump is all about the GOLD. It is an interesting theme. I wonder does that also help to keep an enclosed environment incredibly sanitary, as studies (the Romans knew, pity about slip up on the lead pipes) have shown silver and copper have virus and bacteria destroying properties (sucking a silver spoon to ward of deadly vectors is the origin of the saying “born with a silver spoon”) - might it be the same for GOLD?
Will GOLD kill the invisible enemy?
Gold could easily go higher than 12,000. The more the Fed grows the balance sheet, the higher gold could go. Likewise the higher the USD money supply (m0 and m1) goes the more the target is raised. The fact is that the reserve currency has had its time in the sun and now all that’s left is the confidence of the baby boomer generation in the system. By any other reasonable metric the USA and the EU and by extension the petrodollar system is broke. The only way to stop golds inexorable rise is for the Fed to raise interest rates and they are unlikely to take such action knowing that this will unleash the greatest depression on the western world.
I do think there is gold in Fort Knox and that the elite in Washington are stupid but not that stupid! Nixon broke the gold standard precisely because the US treasury has declined from 12 thousand to eight thousand tonnes…and they couldn’t allow it to decline any further without undermining confidence in Breton woods.
Regarding Trump, I reckon he knows the score and he is probably the most qualified candidate to lead the western world into chapter 11. However if he is not re-elected in November you can pretty much put the price of gold as infinity. Eventually socialism simply runs out of other people’s money.
The US Treasurie bonds are assets which the fed bought that earn a coupon not liabilities which is true since separate institutions but both part of same fed gov.
Hence confused as to whats really on Fed’s balance sheet and which assets are really impaired!!
Looking over at the https://usdebtclock.org, it’s currently displaying the following in the main dashboard:
Dollar to Silver ratio $4030
Dollar to GOLD ratio $32,118
On the subject of Chapter 11, surely Chapter 11 for the USA, would be losing.
Are you sure it’s not Chapter 11 for the Federal Reserve and not the USA, that would be WINNING Big-League No?
GOLD hit $2005 not so long ago today.
So gold hits ATH while US markets rose to near ATH and bond yields fell to 0.5%.
Which means money is going into all 3 markets simultaneously.
Sounds kind of inflationary.
Silver only recently started to track GOLD in upward movement afaics, while gold was ramping up for a much longer time, meaning silver remained cheap to access for a good period up until recently - I wonder what people think regards silver, might it continue to move in tandem with gold until a plateaux is reached that is sustained, and the revert ot more trading flux, or something else.
From comments here, might it be correct to say as a broad characterisation, that silver is traded by the people, and Gold big players & Central Banks (countries) .
The problem with silver is that its taxed differently than gold.
You have to pay vat on silver. (I think that’s by design…to hobble it as a currency to compete with fiat.)
The silver coin sellers you see online (and advertising on youtube etc…with usual conspiracy/fear spiel) make money by selling with a margin attached. If the price spot price drops too quickly they withdrawn their sale stock. In that way the price that they sell for is not really connected to the spot price.
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Maybe these metal will be used as currency again…but who can say when?
You can get silver VAT free. I don’t think it will come back as a currency short of a mad max scenario. But as a speculative investment or instrument of savings, it is second only to gold.
Do you have to pay CTG on gold and silver ?
Not on coins. Not CG on currency. Hence britannias CG free etc.
In terms of relative price movements in gold vs silver the gold/silver ratio has been historically very high recently and is starting to come down now.
Was up at >110/1 during the last year but has typically been a lot lower in the past.
How much the nominal price of each will be in dollars or euros when and if the ratio adjusts is just dependent on how much money supply has been brought into existence by then.
Money Supply Charts
Ratio is at 71. Silver a buy?
Relative to gold? The disruption to the economy is going to affected supply and demand for both these differently.
I don’t know enough about the mining or industrial uses to know how much further the ratio has to go but if I was putting money into precious metals I would probably still choose silver at 71/1 even with the recent large increase in spot, depending on the premium, storage considerations etc.
The SG ratio is about 70 now. It went to 30 lowest during the eurozone crisis in 2011. Its at 2015/2016 levels now. I think it has more to go. Dont forget physical silver is cheaper for the ordinary punter to buy and own - a factor if this goes mainstream and shoe-shine. Its institutional / hedge fund money now.
Yesterday was a chasmtastic affair spectacular by far no holds barred… ending in a dip buying opportunity some hours ago.
Good enough for you @EconomicCrashDummy?
I think there’s more to go .