I find this interesting because I think the real outcome may be counter-intuitive to many people.
The argument one hears most often is that the more attractive areas (Dublin, city-centres, south-side, etc.) will weather a crash best, by virtue that people will always want to live in those locations. And there are many reasons why those regions would attract people in a downturn; Falling employment opportunities drives people to cities, etc. Thus, they claim: these regions will survive during a crash, and emerge at a higher price than other regions.
But what people tend to forget is that those locations were already higher-priced relative to other locations before the bubble. And during the bubble, better locations tend to rise faster than others, because of their perceived desirability.
If you look at how prices have grown during our bubble, you see that it is those desirable areas (Dublin, and 2nd hand houses nationwide, in the chart below) that have most deviated from their norms, and thus have the furthest to fall back to their norms.
Obviously, deserted places like Leitrim which overbuilt massively will be decimated. But I reckon it will be those who think they’re sitting on millions in their D4 terraces who will be in for the biggest shock.
I think you are right to suggest that people in D4 will be hit pretty hard by property price fall. Property on Ailesbury rd is taking a while to shift at the moment. Also anecdotal evidence suggests that good location south side property is 20% or more off peak values (see propertypin and daft).
However as a general rule I think that if the whole bust and recovery cycle is looked at the “better” areas may indeed fare better.
The reason for this suggestion is that in the London crash of the early 90’s better areas regained their pre-crash values within 7 years whereas worse areas took 10 years or more (sorry don’t have the reference for this). And I don’t see any reason why this pattern shouldn’t also apply to Dublin
Tullamore, Co. Offaly.
Exists on retail and wealth transfers from Central Government through decentalisation, health board, over staffed local government and agricultural subsidies. Very little real industry operating in a global market.
A fair bit of exposure to building industry but not to the same extent as elsewhere.
It will suffer in a down turn but not to the same extent as other areas.
Also VIs control local government so supply of additional housing stock can be switched off at the turn of a button.