Predictions 2019


#1

Brexit will go ahead, but Ireland will lose a lot of the single market integration to avoid the hard border that would otherwise be imposed by a clean break Brexit.
The EU will continue for a few more years yet, maybe morphing back to the original EEC model or completely breaking up in the next ten years.
The Chinese empire building continues apace, with consolidation in the south China sea which is grudgingly accepted by neighbours to avoid unfavourable trade with China.

More African countries will find themselves on the hook for binding trade & debt deals that effectively give China a say in the internal politics of those countries (we’re already seeing that now).

Investment in future oil exploration is cutback as EV’s start to make a real dent in oil consumption, resulting in a period of glut followed by shortages three or four years down the line as new fields are not developed and expensive fields are shut in.

Car buyers will have a dilemma, either go EV ASAP or have a couple of years of cheaper motoring in an ICE vehicle, those who can’t affors new will almost certainly go the second option.


#2

Brexit is over. It’s not happening. There may be some theatre yes. Some drama for Sky to sell. But the leave voters know now, that at the end of the day, they are going nowhere.


#3

Fixed that for you! :angry: :nin


#4

Fixed that for you! :angry: :nin
Don’t put words in my mouth!


#5

In 2019? Not going to happen. There are over a billion vehicles on the roads worldwide, and nearly a hundred million new vehicles sold each year. In 2017 there were a million EVs sold, around 1% of total new sales. Personal vehicles account for less than half of all oil consumption. Oil demand increases relentlessly by about 1.5% per year. New EVs, even assuming that their electricity is not sourced from any oil products, therefore offset much less than the increase in oil demand. Even in Norway with its massive subsidies where half of new car sales are EVs, oil consumption has gone up, not down. 70% of Norwegian EV owners also have an ICE car. Undoubtedly, EVs will make up a larger share of the vehicle fleet in future, but it will be a long time before they offset oil demand increases.


#6

irishexaminer.com/breakingn … 90913.html
10 years from now is predicted in this article - but as someone on here has in their signature - ‘prediction is hard, especially about the future.’


#7

GFC 2.0


#8

The Great Global Debt Write-off

(I predict this every year)


#9

Doesn’t make any sense .


#10

Ireland is one of two islands off the northwest coast of Europe, it is easier to control goods to and from the islands than to control the movement of goods within the islands.

People are already controlled as we are not part of the Schengen agreement.


#11

Right now, it still remains the case that the majority of cars bought in Ireland are pure diesel, not hybrid, (54% for 2018 vs 65% for 2017). Let’s recall that the Gilet Jaune began as a protest against the establishment attempting to increase diesel costs. The same establishment that had incentivised diesel buying over the last 15 -20 years.

The number of electric vehicles is wait for it now…1% or 1,211 cars out of 120,379. People will take their fine time adjusting it seems.


#12

The supply of EV’s will be a big hurdle as well as their cost, but they are ramping up rapidly now, not as fast as advocates would like, but still the current models and those soon to come to market will saticfy about 90% of motoring needs. It will be the banning of diesels from cities that will be the real driver for many to switch.


#13

Oil demand in Norway is rising because the population is growing, we plan on growing our population by 1 million in the next 2 decades, god only knows what the Norwegians are planning, its pretty clear if they had zero population growth their oil comsuption would be falling by now, and I bet the people pushing for endless growth of the “Norwegian” population are also environmentalists


#14

It never ceases to amaze me just how many people refuse to see that connection.


#15

More damning evidence will be brought to light of how far down the road of irreversible climate change will emerge. People maybe will start to realise that some Tech bro huckster isnt going to bail them with aninvention that allow them to continue with their environmentally damaging lifestyles
More riots in developed countries due to polcy changes related to climate change
Donald Trump to end the year still a free man
Ireland to win six nations and then not make it past the Rugby world cup quarter finals
Financial crisis to kick back into gear


#16

So, the new car sales for the full year confirmed that electric had a 1% market share. Meantime, I see the Govt. have started the year with an advertising campaign on buses to get us into electric, and Varadkar made some tentative noises about increasing carbon taxes on diesel/petrol. Threading carefully mind, after seeing how Macron’s halo fell within 18 short months.

Analysis of the imports into Ireland which are circa 100,000 cars last year actually showed that 75% of these were diesel. Combine it with the brand new car sales figure of 54% diesel, and it turns out that circa 64% of ‘new to Ireland’ cars in 2018 were still diesel. So the govt campaigns and media PR is not really making a dent in the Irish (especially down the country) love affair with the diesel, or petrol engine. It would be fairly amazing if pure electric got itself up to even 5% market share for 2020 at this rate.


#17

The way to sell more EVs is to get rid of fixed costs of ICE ownership like road tax and insurance. Insure the drivers and charge on use through fuel taxes.

Then people with sufficient parking would hold on to old cars for journeys where they require range and buy EVs for every day use.

Modern cars last decades, they don’t need to be scrapped.


#18

That would probably encourage more public transport use too


#19

Adding an ICE tax to new vehicles bought after a certain date would speed up the adoption of EVs without unnecessarily punishing owners of existing vehicles.
Not everyone can afford to switch vehicles as well as the fact that the EVs are simply not that widely available on the secondhand market.


#20

My point is that you could get to maybe 25% EV usage (and more on a mileage basis) with second cars. There are lots of people who can afford to maintain a second old ICE car but are discouraged from doing so by fixed costs, so they instead buy a single ICE car. Get rid of the fixed costs and you encourage people to buy an EV and retain an ICE car as back up, which is actually better for emissions because the ICE car will get rarely used.