Predictions 2019


#21

Well, that’s more to do with non-EU people (borderless within Europe).

My crystal balls…
Brexit in name only - effectively the largest self-inflicted wound possible. Leave with current deal (DUP will abstain, Tories will back). Then spend the next two years tightening back into the single market, but on worse terms than being a member (rule bound, no say in rules). Effectively Canada with more rules.
As immigration will be a control point, UK will tighten all borders and eligibility (including for historical Irish). Ireland will be pushed into Schengen and tighter EU.
The various movements (including Brexit) will result in larger EU reform and additional emphasis on workers rights, living conditions, external borders etc. The EU will be tighter integrated at the end of 2019 than the start and Ireland will be in it.

EU will maintain it’s shabby stalemate as China deals with its first recession and the US crashes into another (non-contagious this time) financial crash. Trump effectively ignored as a gagging act is passed with Republican support restricting his use of Twitter.


#22

My predictions: Brexit will be delayed and then overturned on second referendum, FF will call an election and win easily, Dublin housing will continue to be stupid, US Democrats will start to sort their shit out in preparation for losing the next election, Bitcoin will finally drop off the news agenda as the remaining cryptards go back to playing COD or whatever they were doing before.


#23

Brexit - delayed
Childrens hospital - delayed and additional costs
National maternity hospital to face more delays and price over-runs
Shane Ross to be the straw that knocks the government
Road schemes to be delivered and Galway ring road to be refused
House prices move <5%
Increasing scrutiny of Housing Agency and other housing bodies


#24

Predictions:

Brexit will go ahead, the transition period will soften any shocks. Anyone who finds that their new neighbours are brexit refugees, they wont be able to afford to live in those areas for long (or they wont be able to bag the bargain €750k gaff they’ve been dreaming of since 2014). I dont predict that ireland will do well out of it with other cities picing up the spoils (if any).
The border with northern ireland will be policed by EU troops, we will have EU federal gangs pushing their weight around in our hometowns.

Healthcare: past behavior predicts that anoher serios healcare scandal for irish women is going to happen.

Politics: cant see FF doing well , the era of the protest is over therefore alphabet soup and politicitians4change and SF will decline. FG + independents again unfortunately.

Apple to become Foxconn in Cork

Emergency hostels for asylum seekers in your village will become permanent accomodation for them.

The people who bought ireland from NAMA will begin to show their teeth, dont be surprised if your nice dwelling in Dublin is suddenly under a new flight path for Dublin airport.

Housing crisis solved because office cubicles will double up as bedsits.


#25

Political: After Brexit and May’s local elections in Northern Ireland it will become clear that support for a united Ireland is at or over 50%. This will be backed up by opinion polls.

There will be a growing realisation in political circles that a referendum as provided for in the Good Friday Agreement is inevitable. The shinners are marginalised as more moderate voices shape the debate.

House prices: go up

EU: To suit accepted narratives UK media and Irish over and misreport developments in Eastern European countries ignoring local context. Macedonia begins to integrate into the EU and NATO.


#26

Brexit to happen but to be a contrived mess initially, with the intent being to soften the cough of Italian, Poles and Gilet Janues who may be considering similar. Over the longer term however, Brexit to be a moderate success as the U.K. replaces Ireland as the offshore tax haven of choice.

Referendum on United ireland by late 2020/early 2021 as a hard border causes untold economic and political strife. Referendum to pass.

European elections in June to see rise of substantial anti EU anti neo liberal populist bloc within the EU parliament itself. Will also consist of a few Irish members and will precipitate the establishment of new Irish political movement that will be a mish mash of what McWilliams might label ‘outsiders’.

Access to a functioning housing market to remain beyond the reach of all but those already with skin in the game.

Serious economic impact from Brexit later in the year to feed into all of the above.

Offaly man to score last minute goal in all Ireland to deny Dublin 5 in a row.

Waterford and Limerick to contest hurling final.

Ireland to lose rugby World Cup final to New Zealand.

Liverpool to win premiership


#27

How will that work? Genuine question. Ireland’s tax advantage is predicated on being part of the EU so that sales of goods and services to all the other EU member states are not taxable in those member states. If the UK is outside the EU, unless it remains completely within the single market, it won’t have the same capacity to sell tax free into EU member states.


#28

Even if it does remain somewhat in the single market in some way, the best case excludes financial services. Labour have no interest in them and bizarrely the Tories have turned their backs on the city.


#29

Politics:

May’s deal to go through as Labour MP’s cross the aisle and she wins support from Sturgeon by agreeing to a second Scottish referendum.
Brexit happens on time and is an initial shit show but the then the British spirit takes over and it’s ok.
That British spirit turns into English Nationalism boyied on by a resurgent broadly supported Scottish nationalism. The English nationalist feel unrepresented by either Labour or the Conservatives. UKIP gap into this harder us alone English Nationlism.
Scotland votes to leave and rushes into the arms of the EU.
The DUP are caught with their pants down and are the only part of the former U.K. that identifies as British.
English nationalism is a bitter angry us alone we are superior to everyone else nationalism that rips Westminster apart for years while the centrist proud Scottish nation flourishes.
Scotland Joins the Euro.
It becomes obvious England doesn’t want Northern Ireland, the English resent sending money to NI and progesssivly progressively reduce what they send.
The prosperity enjoyed by Scotland is in stark contrast to the austerity and business directly wrecked by Brexit like the Ulster farmers.
A border poll is held and passes easily.
Ireland is a Nation once again.
The EU sends us €10 b per year to take on NI and make sure it prospers.
England takes a generation to recover from its fractious early 21C last gasps of the unwinding of the Empire.
A moderate broadly supported mature centrist English Nationalism emerges proud of its culture and respected by the world agin.
By 2050 Brexit is declared a success. The pain was worth it.
A proud head held high respected England votes to join the EU.