Predictions for budget 2009

Nice list there, SouthKerry I agree with it generally.
EU would not accept any abuse of prisoners, we would have to outsource it then claim we knew nothing of the abuses taking place, it will be given to another cheap company etc.

If you want to hit the criminals just make them pay for the cost of their own trials (about 95% receive free legal aid). One look at a barrister’s feenote and they would never break the law again.

(I jest, of course ; everyone should have access to justice, basic human right etc. etc.)

  1. People who start up businesses to get extra tax credits (not less, as is now the case) - incentivise indigenous industry.
  2. Decrease public sector tax credits (to pay for above)
  3. Drastic cutting of the quangos. Reduce the 800 quangos to 100 of the most necessary.
  4. Axe Enterprise Ireland and replace it with a system of easily accessible grants for companies that export, and even more money for knowledge based exporters.
  5. Fat tax - tax on sugar and unhealthy food. Way overdue.
  6. Retraining. Scrap Irish language lessons in school and replace it with business and entrepreneurial studies.
  7. More emphasis on teaching technology to unemployed.

Heard a rumour that they’re looking at:

1% Levy on everyones income

CGT to be increased for short period profit taking eg 12/24 months

Pension relief to be at marginal rate for all !

It’s already there - do you mean at standard rate? Or tax credits for low-paid earners?

For AVCs if one is enjoying relief currently at 41% ,
they will only enjoy the relief at the marginal rate ie 20%

That’ll be a biggie if true.

Wont that collapse the markets even further as people stop paying into pensions?

Blimey. Is that just AVCs or PRSA (i.e. your only pension) aswell?

I’ll stick my neck out here and say that I don’t think they will touch the traditional children’s allowance (although they may argue that the early childhood supplement is not working as they planned and abolish that). I don’t think they will make children’s allowance means tested, nor will they tax it, because it is intimately associated with mná na hEireann. It is traditionally seen as a basic protection for women and children - even women with wealthy husbands can be vulnerable. It has been around a heck of a long time and it would take serious courage to change it. Having said all that, anything is possible now that the panic stage seems to have finally arrived.

Increase CGT by say 5% and then place a property tax on third and subsequent properties?

So it´s still not being considered to bring in a third tax branket for those taking in €150K a year? Even after we racked up our borrowing costs like that? And it was shown the the majority of people who were on that income are spivs in the property and finance scamfests? We deserve them.

to much of a backward move to the 60’s/70’s…and increased administrative costs. easier means such as abolishing the PRSI threshold

We´re about to radically increase our day-to-day expenses, simply because the cost of borrowing will skyrocket because of the 400bn bailout. It has to be paid for somehow, and overall economic growth won´t happen until 2010. So it´s not about red-flag fist-waving of the 1970s mode, it´s simple prudence.

The minor tinkering you suggest is just too little to even begin to plug the massive gap between our newly raised borrowing costs and our recently lowered income. The least moral decision is to leave it to future taxpayers to sort out the mess made by 2008´s foolishness.

Any chance they will wind up/wind down the Tribunals? I feel the ground has been laid for this in the past number of months.

For example, by the time the Morris Tribunal concludes, it will have produced 8 reports on Garda corruption in Donegal, will end up having cost close to 500 million in legal fees/compensation, and will not result in a single person paying for their crimes in any way, shape, or form.

What it will do is put a floor of 21% on Income Tax on income over the standard rate band which is a lot more equitable than what you have a present where with reliefs people can write down their tax bills to 0 or 5% of income. They could combine it with raising the standard rate band to circa €40k.

They won’t do half of what is needed, you have to remember how far off these guys forecasts for tax take etc were in 08, no reason they won’t be a million miles off again this time. Never underestimate the level of incompetence out there.

For person who advocated taxing person on more than 150k at a higher rate, I assume you would equally advocate taxing a married couple who earn 75k each at same higher rate

I can’t see pension relief only being alloed at the standard rate, I really can’t.

What about a wealth tax? They have it in some countries in the EU.