Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18


#121

I think the last few budgets have brought the issue to a head. There was absolute disgust on my office when everyone realised that following the last budget they’d get less than the €5 per week blanket increase to social welfare payments (and thats before even including the restoration of the Christmas “bonus”). A lot of the people most vocal about this ended up voting for Casey. A certain demographic have just had enough.


#122

I disagree.
Cost of living has risen, particularly housing, education places, healthcare lists, insurance.
Also immigration is something yet to be an election issue, but it will, like in the rest of Europe.
Recently, people can see how much non-workers are getting thanks to Margaret Cash et al - education, health, housing, €50k net income, etc etc - those on welfare benefited more than workers in Budget 2019.

And I’m unsure if we’re being trolled Indo -‘If I was successful I would invite all the Travelling community to move into Phoenix Park’ - Peter Casey


#123

Personally I have a much bigger issue subsidising the unpaid mortgages of the squeezed middle than I do about dole scroungers.

Of course there are those that game the welfare system, but a certain level of that is an unavoidable consequence in a society that provides such a system. And whilst I might think it is too generous, I am happy that we provide it.

I just can’t get my head around how we tolerate those who are gaming the system on their mortgage arrears, whilst the rest of us pay for it. This is not seen as an unavoidable consequence of a mortgage market in any other society, what makes us so different?


#124

Right, but those issues were much greater a few years ago. From what I recall there wasn’t much taken off the underclass when the employed were getting freshly hammered with USC. People moaned a great deal about USC, but that was directed at the government, not the unemployed.

Now the government are high in the polls. So why was anger then directed one way, and anger now directed another? Because people feel different about themselves, and therefore about other people.


#125

Well Casey stated in the Indo
He lashed the confidence-and-supply deal saying people wanted a strong government.
“They can’t see any creativity. Everyone is so politically correct and they’re afraid to say anything in case they say the wrong thing”
He called in the existing government to give “90 days notice” and to call an election so they can vote for “someone who can lead for a change.”
“The real reason I had a bump in the polls is because middle Ireland are hurting”. He claimed they had got “absolutely nothing” in the last budget. They’re not looking for handouts they need a help up he said, with help to buy housing and “pay school fees.”
“I think they voted for me because…the people who voted for me are the hard working people who are paying the bills”
"Those are the people who voted for me so I’m hoping the government will sit up and listen to them. It’s so simple."

Very hard to disagree with any of that, Casey is acting as a lightning rod for disaffected voters in a non-powerful position.
Irish politics is shifting, unsure which direction
But imagine a more charismatic Casey-type party in a future Dáil election, under our PRSTV, Casey’s ~20% would translate to 30 Dáil seats


#126

Is another weak coalition going to change anything?
Another Independent Alliance?

In theory a FG overall majority might but even then I have my doubts.

I just don’t see another coherent party emerging like the PDs did.


#127

Doubt it, maybe GFC 2.0 will spark major change whenever that happens


#128

Speaking of GFC 2.0, I wonder was the only question asked of a possible president that actually matters, in a ‘what’s your position on Roe v Wade’ sense

**If you were president at the time they arose would you have referred any of the following to the Supreme Court

  • the Offences Against The State Act
  • the Bank Guarantee
  • the NAMA legislation
    Or would such a president be a “thundering disgrace” ?**

#129

Those are real questions.
Not allowed on RTE or in the Irish MSM.
Keep things to a more trivial simple level.


#130

Getting nearly a quarter of 1st pref votes cast, Peter Casey would be Tainiste if that happened. In an age of supposed equality, when there was nothing for PAYE workers in the budget, that was it for me. The classification by collette fitzpatrick of virgin media , that it was old male rural voters , will never be lost on me. With Casey one can be radical simply by pointing out reality. The media did themselves some real harm , firstly by ganging up against Gemma O’Doherty, that shameful episode exposed the media to those who those who didn’t GAF about the hounding of Waters, Myers and Hook.

why oh why did Sean Gallagher give his best speeches after the election. FF should bring him in, perhaps run him as senator.

Gavin Duffy, mentioning that young adults today will be less well off than their parents and the nature of their work is changing rapidly. These issues havn’t been raised so far in the political mainstream. The young are being cloaked by rainbow flags etc… to even notice.

I’m also unsure which direction politics is going, but the great “independents” experiment since 2011 is rapidly coming to an end if the opinion polls are to be believed. Once people rallied together around vinb’s show, now everyone all fractured into many different splinters. I can see current Dail staying for 4 years, perhaps an election in May 2020, then if not March 2021. More of the same with perhaps Leo propping up Micheal. Opposition is going to be hard to find especially when anyone in Dail can move nasty legislation on whatever crackpot issue they like.


#131

Unsurprisingly the lowest turnout in a Presidential election. Previous low was 1997. Just under 46% turnout. Usually it would be high 50s or low 60s


#132

Absolutely. There is a single specific and increasingly serious problem with housing costs, mainly restricted to Dublin, Cork and Galway, but apart from that the “squeezed middle” are very comfortable indeed. I ought to know, I’m one of them.


#133

You do realise that well over half our population live in these three urban areas? No one caught in the housing crisis is comfortable, even if they are in well-paid employment.

And even if you are fortunate in that respect, are you happy with the amount of tax you’re paying? Somehow, the tax system and living costs hoovers up any income uplift in recent years. Have you noticed any improvement in government services?

It goes a long way to explaining this:

irishexaminer.com/ireland/i … 63183.html


#134

Peter Casey:
‘I am joining Fianna Fail with a view to becoming Taoiseach’
What a disappointment that he’s "to revitalise Fianna Fail into a party that listens to the ordinary people of Ireland”…
He’s ambitious


#135

Sounds more like you’re one of the “unsqueezed middle”, someone who probably bought a home before prices went too high and have a mortgage that costs less that 20% or so of your income to service. If you’re “very comfortable” then you’re also at the upper end of middle, those of us at the other end are nowhere near as comfortable and really have to watch the pennies.


#136

No I’m renting, albeit in a rent pressure zone, so I’m shielded from recent rises there. I’m on about 130% of the average industrial wage, less than I was on ten years ago and the only difference in my finances is that I’m not saving a lot beyond my 20% pension contributions, whereas back then, I was sticking nearly a quarter of my gross salary into a deposit account after tax and living costs.

The cost of housing is a big problem for a significant minority of people, but it’s the only problem. Taxes are not particularly high. My total direct tax (IT + USC + PRSI) went from a low of about 18% in 2008 to about 25% now. It’s a rise, but hardly crippling.

I’ve said it before, the difference between subsistence and sybaritic luxury for a single person is only about €5K a year.


#137

If you were on 18% total tax today, I reckon you would be saving at least 2,500 Euro p.a. , more than halfway to sybaritic luxury! 8DD


#138

That article isn’t about this, but the stats on Traveller incarceration in it are extraordinary:

They may be the most vulnerable but they are definitely the most criminal. In the US there is an outcry about the black population being incarcerated at three times their proportion of the population (12% of the overall population vs. 33% of the prison population) and five times the incarceration rate of whites. However, it is heading in the right direction as the black incarceration rate was down 25% between 2009 and 2016.

From the numbers in the Indo article, Traveller men are nearly 17 times more likely to be incarcerated than the general population, and Traveller women 37 times more so than women in general. That is simply mind-boggling. In the US the debate rages about whether the criminal justice system is less fair to black people. The analysis of crime stats is fairly unambiguous – black people commit gun homicides at four times the rate of the general population and violent crime in general at three times the rate. There is little evidence of systemic racial discrimination in the justice system. More ambiguous is the role that poverty plays in these stats – some studies conclude it is the major factor, some do not.

The same debates are likely to beset the issue of Traveller crime and incarceration, but there’s no denying the disproportionality is way worse for the Irish situation compared to the American one.


#139

Isn’t that 47 times for women?
22% of the incarceration for 0.6% of the population allows only 78% for the other 99.4%.

Edit: I see you refer to all women ( including travelers as the comparitor) i think that “population excluding sub-group” is better due to the level of distortion.


#140

Maybe O Cuív will sign him up?