Presidential Election Friday 26 Oct 18


#141

No, you’d expect 0.6% of the population to contain 0.6% of the incarcerated population. That the female half of that population contains 22% of the incarcerated female population means they are overrepresented by 22/0.6 = 37. It is reasonable to segregate by gender because the male prison population outnumbers women by between four and six to one, depending on which recent year you look at.


#142

The point I was making though is the same as saying: Bill Gates walks into a room with 9 other guys. The average wealth is now approx $10 billion, and Bill Gates has approx 10 times the average.
However, it might be more interesting to note that the average of the other 9 guys is $100k and Bill Gates has 1 million times that average.
The distortion caused by an extreme outlier renders a normal average less meaningful as a data point.


#143

So Peter Casey wants to stand for the Dail but no party will have him! What are the chances of him trying to set up a party?
As long as he doesn’t attract far right candidates, I think there’s a gap in the market for a centreish party. He may be a bit of a loose cannon but that’s probably what’s needed to get the ball rolling.


#144

The likes AAA and PBP were the angry entrants when there a major displacement to the status quo but it looks as if the appetite for new parties has waned.

If he doesn’t have anything new to offer other than using a one horse race as an anti-traveler rant then I can’t see him having much traction in Irish politics where TDs are pretty strongly tied to their constituencies. Is he really open to being that tied down?


#145

My gut is there was a lot more behind his vote that an anti-traveller sentiment. And I’d guess he’d have better access to funding etc than AAA/PBP.

I do agree that starting a party might well be a step too far for him, it is a pretty full on involvement. But if he raised the funds, he’d have an infrastructure to apply a little polish, some media training, someone to help him speech writing etc and I do think he’d get some traction.

I certainly don’t think he’s suddenly going to become Taoiseach, but I think a new party that went after his presidential vote would do a hell of a lot better than Renua/Social Dems/AAA/PBP.


#146

Bolsonaro in Brazil, Germany today, Italy, Hungary, Sweden…

People are fed up of the centre bullshit.


#147

Which is what?


#148

The middle ground is probably better. but not at the expense of the majority and too much pandering to minorities can lead to resentment.
Would it be time to start thinking that we are seeing a possible recreation of the political landscape of the late 1930s?
We all know how well that ended up!


#149

Being told how they should feel and what they should do.

The slope is pretty slippery. I don’t blame the strong man or populism (I don’t support it either). That’s a direct result of the input of governments for the last decade or so.


#150

Well if your government uses the EU to cover up for its own failings eventually the electorate will believe them and vote themselves out.

I don’t buy this anti-PC argument. It seems mostly western societal jitters about the rest catching up. Trump with his America First is causing more obstacles than opportunities.

I think people here are projecting way too much onto Casey when traveler related flare ups are a regular staple of Irish public discourse. Bread and circuses.


#151

Agreed in the sense I believe this country would veer extreme left before right if it ever came to it.


#152

It can’t be denied however that Ireland’s increasing (at least outwardly) liberalization appears to be at odds with current developments everywhere else across the globe. From the US to the Philippines to India to now Brazil, and increasingly across Europe the trend is in the opposition direction.

There’s nothing new in it of course. Ireland has always tended to be somewhat idiosyncratic in societal terms and has generally done its own thing without necessarily overly concerning itself with what was occurring elsewhere. I remember my grandparents speaking about an old priest in their village whose catchphrase used to be “it might be the style in London or Paris but it’s not the style in Ireland”. Apparently it would be received very enthusiastically by his congregation as, presumably, it fed into their sense of themselves as a people apart.

It’s possible that Fintan O’Toole et al will play a similar pontificating role for a liberal Ireland cast increasingly adrift in a sea of right leaning European populism over the next couple of decades…until such time as phrases like ‘liberal infested backwater’ or ‘Ballygoforwards’ are adopted by the younger generation seeking to rid themselves such outdated modes of thought.


#153

“Ballygoforwards” I may steal that and claim I invented it :stuck_out_tongue:
It gives just the right impression of halfwit millenial sheep acting like yokels and boiling things down to #Savita #Love

Words like “progressive” “liberal” even “post-modernist” are all laden down with undertones of improvement. There needs to be another label for this ideology which is actually illiberal in its intolerance. At the moment I favour “destructionist” - they want to destroy the current paradigm and replace it.

Imagine you’re able to lead a hedonistic, debauched, pampered, lavish lifestyle for only €13.69 a day ! You need to turn that into a business. Sandy Lane will go bankrupt. I remember Michael Winner saying years ago he needed £800,000 net to lead a wealthy persons lifestyle.

All I the sybaritic lifestyle I could get for €13.69 would be one drink after work, a Tesco finest ready meal, a giant toblerone, and free internet dirty movies.

Whatever the Casey vote means, Leo would want to be careful. Theresa May didn’t understand the rage or seething anger underlying the Brexit vote and got punished despite UKIP’s collapse.


#154

I can’t read the full piece but it seems Kitty Holland knows why people voted for Casey and it’s not because travellers aren’t model citizens, no siree!!

irishtimes.com/opinion/supp … 3?mode=amp


#155

The bit I saw of Casey, he seemed to want to throw plenty of money at ‘fixing’ things. This seemed to be funded by raiding the pension reserve fund or more borrowing.

That’s not a radical alternative. Next.


#156

It’s very easy, when your default mode is ascetic contentment. :smiley:

Actually, I don’t, since I don’t really need the money, but these guys will tell you gratis. :smiley:

earlyretirementextreme.com

mrmoneymustache.com

There’s an expression to describe people like that, “more money than sense”.

Why are you pissing away your money on ready meals when you could make much nicer ones yourself? That’s why you’re poor. :wink:


#157

That’s what I’ve often thought.


#158

Ah ok, having a dim moment. You’re right of course. Male and female Travellers are 18 and 47 times as likely to be incarcerated as the general population, respectively.


#159

Peter Casey was just on Radio1.
Was asked if FF continue to reject his application, he said he’ll set up a new political party! :slight_smile:


#160

Now he says he’ll top the poll in donegal and start his own party.

It’s like we’ve had our Trump moment, just for the hell of it and it’s already being given the kiss of death by shuffling off to Tom Gildea territory.

Casey doesn’t give a hoot, he’ll have Presidential runner up on his business CV which abroad will make him seem intergel to Irish politics when the truth is far more mundane.

I’m reminded of the teacher who use to go up to the halting site and drag in their kids for the inspectors visit and then boot them out afterwards.