Prices have not fallen 20% (The Market has fallen 20%)

Hi. Long time no post…

While most pinsters will know and understand this post I feel that it needs to be stated clearly for Joe Public:

The CIF (et al) have started their campaign to get the market back on track, as we all know and as they have stated that they would do. A number of VI’s have said that the last year prices have fallen up to 20% and many bears have been quite surprised by their honesty. Some realise what the game here is, but I think that it needs to be made very clear to Joe Public: PRICES HAVE NOT FALLEN BY 20%, BUT THE MARKET HAS. For property obsessives, like myself, this might be an obvious fact. What we need to make clear is that sellers who have dropped by 20% are selling while those who have not are not - again quite obvious, but from chats some people think that most prices have fallen 20% and now is the time to get back in.
We are at a very delicate stage of the downturn and do not have a proper land registry to inform people - we do not need a bull-trap (dead cat bounce) to postpone this and to hurt more people.

So the point I’m making and the one that I want all bears to tell their mates is ‘The market and not prices are down 20%’

PS. This site is damn good and I cannot say how happy I am with both the calibre of posters and the new apps\sites to monitor prices. Keep up the good work.

Welcome to the dark side 2nz! :smiley:

OW EDIT: I tweaked that title to make it more obvious in case we got a few bear blood rush to the head replies :wink:

Good point. We don’t want any bears choking on their wine :wink:

Cheers. I’ve been on the dark side a while now…check out my old site

Don’t you know were all Cider drinkers around here, is that not right muffins 8)

I just cracked open a nice Chianti

We are talking about a Bull Trap not a Bear Trap ( if indeed anything) next 2nz , ie latent visceral bulls lep in at a short loved false recovery then followed by a violent downward movement .

Bear traps involve selling at a peak shortly before the real peak…say Autumn 2005 in this case.

Have you ever tried it with fava beans and liver?

No because liver ruins a chianti , I thought everyone knew that 8)

Right you are 2Pack, that’s what I meant to type (bears on the mind me…I’ll try re-edit). Having a Cab-Sav me. While I’m talking to you…muchos kudos on your articles!!

Lets just stay on the subject of Bull Traps shall we

I’ll post that graphic again. You say that we are progressing from denial into Bull Trap I believe .

Lets call this “Country Toms Bull Trap” as the CIF is responsible for co-ordinating the guff . The phrase has a certain ring to it if you will pardon the agricultural pun 8)

This graph is a universal depiction of a bubble, any bubble in fact not just in housing .

Personally I believe a bull trap …if there is one…will be less pronounced than that …more a flatline break in the downward momentum . We may even be past it and have not noticed.

2Pack you absolute legend! You’ve put my exact thoughts of late into a succinct paragraph that’s so true, it’s hilarious!

Im leaning that direction now, we may see it only in retrospect.
These people buying at the approx 20% cuts may be it

Well hang on. Mr Anderson has told us in the clearest possible terms that South Dublin has levelled in the past 6 months …eg the effective falls were in the summer 2006-summer 2007 timeframe. Mr Anderson is a very accurate source on the ground.

There could therefore be a South Dublin led bull trap for a few months this summer with Brendan writing articles about testicles on the front of the indo …as he does.

So lets not rule out an uptick but I just feel that the credit cruchies appear to be too tasty and will act as a brake on it. Hence my feeling that a flatline is the ‘best’ bull trap achievable by County Tom.

Going nowhere is the new up and all that .

Totally agree there 2Pack !! and have been preaching this graph to mates. And, yep, I reckon too that it might now be flatlining too, hard to say…but we are at a delicate stage now and the point I want to make is not to the choir but to Joe Public. As the lunatic in charge of the States would say: “We gotta stay the course” :wink:

As far as I’m concerned, I’ve been telling people since last summer that this March\April will see Panic Season take hold.

That graphs reminds me of the roller coaster in the Hotel I was staying at in Tokyo, here have a look (this is not OW or me other half in case you are wondering. jsut somehappy youtube people…)

Anyways the point is the roller coaster was a tense slow build up from teh que to the slow crawl up. THe whole thing itself lasted about 30 seconds or so, it was enthralling and lots of fun but the scariest bit was when we came to a sudden (break assisted) halt and where all thrown forward, that lasted about 3/4 seconds, that was the scariest bit :open_mouth: you where so excited and high on adrenaline that the sudden shock of the STOP was a real jolt to the sense :smiling_imp:

I find the whole thing more than slightly discomforting. They marched them up to the top of the hill and they can may their own arrangements regarding the return trip.

Lads, it’s Friday night/ Saturday morning, I have have alcohol on me, what’s your excuse for being on here?

Blatant plagiarism :laughing:

I have no excuse.

I’m drunk