While most pinsters will know and understand this post I feel that it needs to be stated clearly for Joe Public:
The CIF (et al) have started their campaign to get the market back on track, as we all know and as they have stated that they would do. A number of VI’s have said that the last year prices have fallen up to 20% and many bears have been quite surprised by their honesty. Some realise what the game here is, but I think that it needs to be made very clear to Joe Public: PRICES HAVE NOT FALLEN BY 20%, BUT THE MARKET HAS. For property obsessives, like myself, this might be an obvious fact. What we need to make clear is that sellers who have dropped by 20% are selling while those who have not are not - again quite obvious, but from chats some people think that most prices have fallen 20% and now is the time to get back in.
We are at a very delicate stage of the downturn and do not have a proper land registry to inform people - we do not need a bull-trap (dead cat bounce) to postpone this and to hurt more people.
So the point I’m making and the one that I want all bears to tell their mates is ‘The market and not prices are down 20%’
PS. This site is damn good and I cannot say how happy I am with both the calibre of posters and the new apps\sites to monitor prices. Keep up the good work.
Well hang on. Mr Anderson has told us in the clearest possible terms that South Dublin has levelled in the past 6 months …eg the effective falls were in the summer 2006-summer 2007 timeframe. Mr Anderson is a very accurate source on the ground.
There could therefore be a South Dublin led bull trap for a few months this summer with Brendan writing articles about testicles on the front of the indo …as he does.
So lets not rule out an uptick but I just feel that the credit cruchies appear to be too tasty and will act as a brake on it. Hence my feeling that a flatline is the ‘best’ bull trap achievable by County Tom.
Totally agree there 2Pack !! and have been preaching this graph to mates. And, yep, I reckon too that it might now be flatlining too, hard to say…but we are at a delicate stage now and the point I want to make is not to the choir but to Joe Public. As the lunatic in charge of the States would say: “We gotta stay the course”
As far as I’m concerned, I’ve been telling people since last summer that this March\April will see Panic Season take hold.
Anyways the point is the roller coaster was a tense slow build up from teh que to the slow crawl up. THe whole thing itself lasted about 30 seconds or so, it was enthralling and lots of fun but the scariest bit was when we came to a sudden (break assisted) halt and where all thrown forward, that lasted about 3/4 seconds, that was the scariest bit you where so excited and high on adrenaline that the sudden shock of the STOP was a real jolt to the sense