Prime Time looking for opinions on the property market

[KenOShea]

Hi.

You’ve got to love message boards for the wide variety of opinions…

There are some excellent suggestions on here, which I very much appreciate.

I probably should have made it clearer in my initial post - this will be a show about the economy as a whole. Clearly, the property situation will have a major role in this but we are also looking at other issues such as the decline of the manufacturing sector, international conditions etc.

So…still looking for volunteers to talk about their own personal situation and their view of the bigger picture - including all of the issues mentioned in this thread.

Thanks for your time and feel free to contact me at the numbers or email listed above.

Thanks.

Ken O’Shea
Producer
Prime Time
RTE
01-2083111

[daltonr]

Ken,

I don’t know if this has been suggested, but it might be worth hanging out on the platform of a train station in one of the commuter towns an hour or so from Dublin, and asking if anyone would like to go on camera and talk about their situation.

Better still, grab a camera and ride the trains, and talk to some of the people who can’t get a seat.

On the wider economy, employment etc, the biggest story there is the number of pepple who were working directly or indirectly in construction. Nearly one third of the people in the country who worked, worked in construction, and very few “leading” economists were
flagging this as the potential timebomb that it was.

-Rd

[flash]

How about heading out to Gdansk to ask why so many former Ireland residents have returned?

Then you can ask Tom Parlon how negative immigration will effect property market.

[xman]

@KenOShea

Hi.

You’ve got to love message boards for the wide variety of opinions…

cough, splutter MESSAGE BOARD!

It’s a* forum *don’t you know…

There are some excellent suggestions on here, which I very much appreciate.

Get Austin or Dan on to explain that minor 73% discrepancy between fundamental and actual values in the housing market please. How much did incomes increase by between 1996 and 2006? Was it 400%? Methinks not.

Or get them to explain why the IMF recently reported that we have the most overvalued residential property market in the world.

https://img101.imageshack.us/img101/5052/imfug8.png

Is this situation sustainable?
Is it desirable?

If the answer to those questions is no, then why does the whole country seem hell bent on prolonging it and perpetuating it a la Donie Cassidy.
If wages are not going to grow by 20-30% over the next 12-18 months → where exactly is all his recently predicted House Price Inflation coming from?
Even more growth in private sector credit?

Seriously, get him on and ask him. I really, really want to know how this whole thing works.

My explanation would be it’s all a gigantic almighty credit bubble of biblical proportions, but that’s just me…

[bugler]

Donie has painted a giant target on his arse.

[nonbeliever]

@daltonr

On the wider economy, employment etc, the biggest story there is the number of pepple who were working directly or indirectly in construction. Nearly one third of the people in the country who worked, worked in construction, and very few “leading” economists were flagging this as the potential timebomb that it was.
-Rd

RD where did you get this info? There are 2 million people employed in Ireland. Are you telling us that 670,000 of these work directly or indirectly in construction? I am not disputing your figure (although it does seem very high, especially when the CSO stats suggest that 280k were employed directly in construction), just curious to know where you got the info??

[daltonr]

I am not disputing your figure (although it does seem very high, especially when the CSO stats suggest that 280k were employed directly in construction), just curious to know where you got the info??

You might be right, I’m 99% sure I saw that figure quoted here on the Pin, so I’m searching now for where I saw it. If I turn out to be wrong, thanks for calling me on it.

-Rd

[daltonr]

Looks like it’s 19% of workers which is lower than I thought.
About 24% of GNP.
finfacts.ie/irelandbusinessn … 1255.shtml

The Irish construction labour force in Q2, 2007 is estimated at 415,900 persons, including an estimate for indirect employment and assuming an unemployment rate in line with the national average (4.6%). This estimate corresponds to almost 19% of the national labour force of 2.21 million (sa). There were 126,100 directly employed in construction in early 1998 compared with 282,000 in late 2006.

-Richard

[nonbeliever]

It is still a fifth of the workforce, a level not sustainable in the long run.

[lads_john]

@Inis Man

debates.oireachtas.ie/DDebate.as … All&Page=4

If you can get Senator Cassidy on, it would be very helpful if you could make sure the cameras go particularly close up while he’s being interviewed, just so viewers can see any blinking, gulping, coughing, wriggling or sweating that might be going on.

What was that get out clause that Bertie tried to use? - anything said
in the Dail cannot be cross examined in public because it could cause
a temporal rift. Or something like that…

[daltonr]

It is still a fifth of the workforce, a level not sustainable in the long run.

It’s also twice the international average, and twice what Ireland used to be. 10% if the workforce is sane.

forfas.ie/icsti/statements/t … r/over.htm

-Rd

[murior]

@bugler

Donie has painted a giant target on his arse.

And he talks through his arse when he said

“I will remind the House, perhaps in 12 or 18 months, when prices have again increased by 25% or 30%, that they were told this by the Leader of the House on this historic day, the tenth anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement.” - did you ever hear such fecken shite in all your life?

[The_Unwelcome_Guest]

@murior

@bugler

Donie has painted a giant target on his arse.

And he talks through his arse when he said

“I will remind the House, perhaps in 12 or 18 months, when prices have again increased by 25% or 30%, that they were told this by the Leader of the House on this historic day, the tenth anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement.” - did you ever hear such fecken shite in all your life?

Erm, that’s what Bugler was referring to…

Donie is a sound man, one of the backers of Celtic Note and of course, Foster & Allen, so you know he’s been trading in the shite for years…

[murior]

I am just concurring with what he said - pure bolix from Donie - couldn’t believe he said that - a touch of Verbal Diarrhoea from his throne in the senate

[The_Unwelcome_Guest]

@murior

I am just concurring with what he said - pure bolix from Donie - couldn’t believe he said that - a touch of Verbal Diarrhoea from his throne in the senate

He has specialised in pure bollox for a long time, not purely when he’s horsetrading poor Irish tourist trad…

[murior]

@The Unwelcome Guest

@murior

I am just concurring with what he said - pure bolix from Donie - couldn’t believe he said that - a touch of Verbal Diarrhoea from his throne in the senate

He has specialised in pure bollox for a long time, not purely when he’s horsetrading poor Irish tourist trad…

Brilliant - I love it

[CaveCanem]

@flash

Monty Python’s Always Look on the Bright Side of Life?

I was thinking The Dead Parrot sketch should be used.

[daltonr]

A customer enters a Bank.

Customer: 'Ello, I wish to register a complaint.

(The owner does not respond.)

C: 'Ello, Miss?

Owner: What do you mean “miss”?

C: I’m sorry, I have a cold. I wish to make a complaint!

O: We’re closin’ for lunch.

C: Never mind that, my lad. I wish to complain about this property market what I bought into not half an hour ago in this very bank.

O: Oh yes, the, uh, the Celtic Tiger…What’s,uh…What’s wrong with it?

C: I’ll tell you what’s wrong with it, my lad. 'E’s dead, that’s what’s wrong with it!

O: No, no, 'e’s uh,…he’s resting.

C: Look, matey, I know a dead housing market when I see one, and I’m looking at one right now.

O: No no it’s not dead, it’s, it’s restin’! Remarkable creature, the Celtic Tiger, idn’it, ay? Beautiful plumage!

C: The plumage don’t enter into it. It’s stone dead.

O: Nononono, no, no! resting!

C: Um…now look…now look, mate, I’ve definitely 'ad enough of this. That housing market is definitely deceased, and when I bought into it not ‘alf an hour ago, you assured me that its total lack of movement was due to it bein’ tired and shagged out following a prolonged boom.

O: Well, he’s…he’s, ah…probably pining for the fjords.

C: PININ’ for the FJORDS?!?!?!? What kind of talk is that?, look, why did the housing market fall flat on it’s back the moment I got a home?

O: The Celtic Tiger prefers kippin’ on it’s back! Remarkable beast, id’nit, squire? Lovely plumage!

C: 'E’s passed on! This Tiger is no more! He has ceased to be! 'E’s expired and gone to meet 'is maker!

'E’s a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! If you hadn’t propped him up with cheap credit for so long 'e’d be pushing up the daisies!
'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E’s off the twig!
'E’s kicked the bucket, 'e’s shuffled off ‘is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin’ choir invisibile!!

THIS IS AN EX-TIGER!!

(pause)

O: Well, I’d better replace it, then.

(he takes a quick peek behind the counter)

O: Sorry squire, I’ve had a look 'round the back of the shop, and uh, we’re right out of housing booms.

C: I see. I see, I get the picture.

O: I got a Deposit Account.

(pause)

C: (sweet as sugar) Pray, does grow at 16% per annum?

O: Nnnnot really.

C: WELL IT’S HARDLY A BLOODY REPLACEMENT, IS IT?!!???!!?

[CaveCanem]

Brilliant Daltonr. Got a good laugh from that. Wish rte could get Palin & Cleese to act it out.

[Green_Bear]

ADDRESSING THE IAVI AGM on Monday, its new president, Edward Carey - a mere whippersnapper at only 39 - told members he felt a bit like Brian Cowen. “I get into the top job just when it looks like the party is over.”

And it looks like it might be a baptism of fire for Carey with estate agents likely to be the target of criticism on a Prime Time programme due to be aired on May 1st which, among other things, is going to look at the subject of negative equity.

In his speech, Carey refuted charges that agents were guilty of hyping the market in the boom years and understating the extent of the current price fall, and said he hasn’t enjoyed taking the flak for poor practices “from people who decided to set up shop in auctioneering without familiarising themselves with even the basics of ethical practice”.

Carey - who lists hockey among his hobbies - was born in Enfield, Co Meath in 1968, and joined the IAVI in 1991. He spent a number of years working in the industry in Dublin before returning to work in the family practice in Enfield in 1993.

Not one to let the grass grow under his feet, in 2006 he was elected junior vice-president of the institute and his appointment as president makes him one of the youngest ever presidents of the institute.

Carey insisted that the market is “healthy” and that the fall in house prices since March 2007 is merely “a correction” and a “temporary blip” and said “allegations of a property crash” should be taken in context against huge cumulative increases since the early 1970s up to the market slowdown in March last year. He quoted increases of 3,175 per cent for second-hand homes since 1974 and 4,800 per cent for new homes since 1970.

Could he be protesting too much?

Ordinary Joe is now the king of Irish property
ireland.com/newspaper/proper … 00724.html