Promissory notes

In my opinion anyone who believes that Ireland will get a deal on the promissory notes will be very disappointed. We’re talking the irish government here Enda Kenny and Michael Noonan after all! They are good little boys after all and will get a pat on the head from Europe and told get back into your box and do as your told. They have created hope in the irish people but that was in December and the budget now that’s over for another year they are fine. My blood boils and I’m embarrassed to be irish at the moment we are considered nothing bet fools in Europe.
Wake up the promisory notes will be paid in full and no deal will be achieved

Some sunday takes on that

In the Sindo Howlin starts to get worried
independent.ie/national-news … 75764.html

Stephen donnelly talks to the Troika businessetc.thejournal.ie/stephe … 4-Feb2013/

Brian Lucey was in holland
brianmlucey.wordpress.com/2013/0 … om-europe/

I wonder what will happen on March 31st to take the publics’ mind off this?

Who will get arrested, what will be leaked to the media etc?

Surely it would be worth increasing the corporate tax rate in return for a bank deal?

And then reducing it again straight after to 10%

Yes but this will happen in a round about way rather than straight increase in the rate. Compromise will be the order of the day. Sale of state assets to European companies will also be on the table.

I can’t see the ECB offering very much here. From their point of view, the Irish government offered a unilateral and unlimited guarantee to bondholders in 2008 which effectively forced them to come in and clean up the mess. The idea being peddled by sections of the media that there might be some sort of large writeoff seems to be based more on the desire to sell newspapers rather than on any factual reality. There may however be some rescheduling of the debt.

When is the expiration of that guarantee?

The best thing to do would be for the Irish government to pay lip-service to extending the guarantee, but once the expiration date comes then do nothing. Then watch as the European “partners” are forced to step in and guarantee the bonds - it’s either that or allow the whole system to temporarily come crashing down and all the politicians lose their jobs.

Kinda like Thelma and Louise turning their car around and playing chicken with the police.

Which bonds are you talking about? :confused:

I actually have no idea anymore. :blush:
All of them covered by the Irish government guarantee(s) I guess!

Mostly, I think, they are owed to the other vegetables. They are being used as liquidity arrangements. I think. As you say, it is no longer clear what is guaranteed, who owns whom.

You realise this would make the Irish banks insolvent and they would be shrugs closed down? Nationalised? :laughing: Zombier?

Very interesting case.

You’ve got to admire SOMEBODY taking the case, and all the way to the Supreme Court at that.

rte.ie/news/2016/0218/769072 … romissory/

Not really. She lost in the high court and bizarrely had most of her costs awarded against the State. How is that justifiable? Ross Maguire was her counsel so I’d say he was happy with that judgement.
She knows well that they won’t go after her for the costs and I doubt she has any means and even it they did the publicity & noise she’d generate would guarantee her re-election (bankruptcy no longer being an obstacle).
More importantly, her SC also knows that in light of the cost decision in the High Court he stands a good chance of having his costs, no matter the outcome, becoming an obligation of the state.
Gravy train lawyers and political attention is the name of this game.

The issue is being heard by a seven judge Supreme Court, due to the importance of the issues raised.

(Irish Times)

Any request by the president for the Supreme Court to review the constitutionality of a Bill is required to be decided by a panel of 7 judges.

While it’s not the president referring this, the suit is questioning the constitutionality of an Act or Bill. It’s reasonable to assume a similar panel would be required.

Two possible outcomes:

  • They’ll loose but the judgement will throw them a fob, saying they were great people and it was an important question …blah blah blah… costs against the state, everyone gets paid,
  • They win and the bill which allowed the issuance of the prom notes are deemed unconstitutional.

If they win, so what? The prom notes no longer exist, they were issued by Brian Lenihan who also no longer exists. Hey hoo, everyone gets paid though.

Are we going to somehow get back €25bn? No.

How much of the promissory notes have not been redeemed by the NTMA issuing bonds but are still held by the Central Bank? I think it’s somewhere in the teens. If they become invalidated that’s potentially a very big deal.

No chance of that I’d say.

As I said in my post above, the prom notes no longer exist.
All the existing promissory notes were exchanged for bog standard sovereign floating rate notes.
As such, the CBI no longer holds prom notes.
The FRN’s are fully fungible with all other sovereign Irish debt. There’s about €24bn of these FRNs held by the Central Bank which haven’t been sold but the ECB requires the CBI to sell them into the “market” over the next decade or so.
The NTMA doesn’t buy “prom notes” from the CBI with Bonds. They buy the FRNs (AKA bonds) with cash. The FRN’s are then cancelled.

According to twitter it’s up again this Tuesday in the supreme court.

So is the court case of any value
If Collins /Hall win does it mean anything to the ordinary man in the street?
If they lose I presume they will be awarded costs…issues raised in the national interest but Collins /Hall did their best for Ireland great PR
Lawyers get paid from the public purse.
So is this a vanity case or has it real merit

Judge Adrian Hardiman was one of the seven judges hearing this case.

rte.ie/news/2016/0405/779617 … sory-note/