Property Bubble - Global

A lot of posters on here who laughed at people who said “Ireland is different” now seem to be saying “Ireland is different”.

It is not. A quick google of property bubble shows up hits for India, China, Dubai, London, UK, Panama, USA, Florida, Australia. I accept that most of this was driven by Irish investors. :mrgreen:

In any event, Ireland is not different and just as many people went OTT in predicting that prices would never stop rising I think that the same is true on here in reverse, prices will stasbilise and start rising again. The time frame is the key and in same way people were predicting the inevitable bubble bursting as soon as it started inflating any of us who predict the next bubble will of course be correct.

Someone pondering whether to buy, doesn’t need to know when the next bubble may start. All they really need to know is whether prices are likely to rise or fall for the foreseeable future, 6 months down the road they can review the situation and again determine whether prices are likely to continue falling for the foreseeable future and so on. It doesn’t matter a great deal if you miss the bottom by a year or two, prices do not immediately rocket up again once you hit the bottom. The property market cycle is pretty slow (i.e. it tends to cycle over periods of a decade or more).

Well then we are really fucked.

In the long run house prices don’t rise much above the rate of inflation.

wv

Tyler - you seem to think that prices will start rising again in 5-10 years, at the rate experienced in the late 90’s early 00’s.

I personally think we’re looking at 20-25 years and at a much slower rate of increase.

I think that you are overstating our input here.

not as much as the people who loaned us the money!

tinfoil hat time, are there people praying that ireland will be left out of the EU in the future so they can escape their debts. mmmmm

I agree 100% with everything you have said above here,

The key thing is stabilise and then rise in that order.

before stabilisation we will need to see a reduction in inventory and a return to economic growth, so talking of a recovery at the moment is moot

when inventory starts falling and the economy starts growing again

come back to me.

Sure, at some point prices will start rising again, although most likely at the rate of inflation…but

The most important thing to get right is from what point they will start rising again…

Buying 35% too early, for example, means u would have to wait another 14 years to see the price u bought at materialise again (assuming 3% price inflation). Its quite conceivable that today is 35% above the low.

As an example…extreme but makes a good point…

The Dow hit 300 in 1928…

If one bought at 200 in 1929, on the way down, u needed to wait until 1945 to see that level again
If one bought at 40 in 1932 , u 5x your money by 1945