Property down 20% in 2008: Sunday Times

And between 30-50% from its peak depending on location. The valutions are based upon EA estimates at what price level property will sell for rather than asking prices or limited mortgage drawdown data. Prices fell 30-35% in Dublin in 2008 and Laois was the worst performing county outside the capital down 30%.
timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w … 581727.ece

No, thats not right at all. Sure anglo only had a 1.2% impairment charge. Thats the real fall…

This was mentioned in 2FM news broadcasts.

That must mark the end of the denial phase. It may even be the case that we skip fear and move directly to panic.

deleted - accidentally posted as ‘new topic’

Down 20%??

Down 20% from what? Asking prices? Selling prices?

I’ll tell ya for nothing, as an ex-pat paddy (UK) the whole market in Ireland is confusing.

At least over here they have the various lender indices (approved and applied for loans) and the land registry.
Granted all have their flaws but…
In Ireland… what?

None of this make any sense to me other than the realisation that a 3 bed semi in an ‘upper working class’ area of Dublin (read - Phibsboro, Rathmines, Marino, Clontarf, Blackrock) costs more than a 4 bed detatched house in a very good area of Manchester or an equivalent area in outer London.

You people are fucking mad if you think house prices are sustainable.
(hat tip to the 'glee policy here) I understand prices are ‘sticky downwards’ but when the latest un/underemployment figures hit the wires houses are gonna fall like shit from a diabetic cow. The stuff I’m hearing when I ring home is just tragic.
Very decent, hard working people who worked and studied for years are out on their ear. Kids, loans, the lot… from prosperous to unemployed in a little over a month!!!

Looking at this from abroad… well… youre fkd… That ‘80%’ bloke was about right.

Thats not going to happen here as we dont do evictions.

That only pertains to the ‘family home’.

Aside from that you *do *do repossessions.

Who fancies living in a house, paying a mortgage for 50 years and never having ownership even if you dont get ‘kicked out’?

aye…Mad is right.

This is the number one practical thing that needs to be addressed to learn from the horror of the bubble and prevent a repeat - a proper system, in the public domain, which records sale prices.

Otherwise - People will continue to be kept in the dark and fed horseshit.:

20% is chicken feed compared to what has gone on with the banks and the stock market in the last year.

House prices are wedded to this boom on the way up but immune to the bust on the way down? I don’t think so - it’s just hard to imagine prices falling hard and fast. But tell that to the banks shareholders 12 months on.

Interesting times. In all it’s glory:

ISEQ

AIB

BOI

ILP

Anglo

Tell it to Anglo’s revenge fund… :nin

Anyway… Shares, extremely liquid… Property not so much… Also property has other benefits other than purported investment therefore people will be less inclined to ditch on the basis of a whisper in the wind or a full blown roman gods portent of doom style vision…

Although, you could have said the same thing about the bank shares!!! :smiling_imp:

+1 on both posts

Yeah - I knew I was doing apples and oranges - but equally the amount of people I know who had large investments in bank shares and were planning to buy/build on the back of them is frightening. I have no figures on it but I can’t see how the annihilation in bank share value cannot but have an effect on big ticket items.

It’s a great unwind…

A salutary lesson which we’ll all pay for… Cheers guys! :nin

**Group loses €300 million on Anglo Irish investment **

Ouch XD

Oooh, Sunday Times is getting stuck right in:

property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/l … d_selling/ for a breakdown of the results per region. Dublin particularly badly hit.

This is a great comment. Rathmines, Clontarf and Blackrock would never be considered to be upper working class areas, and Phibsboro & Marino have become trendy areas to live. So to hear someone from outside Ireland telling it like it is is refreshing. I wonder what you would make of houses in East wall & the liberties, two traditionally disadvantaged areas. Some of these are very dilapidated former corporation houses selling for €200k+.

Don’t tar us all with the same brush, but I accept that as a country we are suffering from severe paranoid schizophrenic symptoms.

That’s not even all its glory, as it only starts early 2008. The ISEQ/bank shares peaks were around July 07 IIRC.

As regards people who bought shares with the ultimate intention of buying property it got me thinking - am I right in saying that endowment mortgages dissappeared in the early 1990s? If you had an endowment mortgage and a iseq backed share fund/assurance policy you would be in serious trouble.

I have gone through this report and it shouldn’t be taken seriously. It is merely a chance for Vested Interests in property to talk up (read recovery) the proerty market once again.
To start, it is written by the developers rent boy, Mark Keenan. This in itself, if you are seeking the truth, should encourage you to turn the page. This “journalist” has been one of the media’s property cheerleaders from as far back as I can remember. I wonder how many buy to lets has he got. I suppose we’ll find out at some stage from the Monday morning court logs. (Just to confirm. I know nothing about Keenan’s finances.)
The article’s data comes from Estate Agents. Upon reading this the alarm bells should start to ring. Estate Agents are the baser Vested Interests in Property. EAs earn from selling property. At the moment they cannot sell property so they are loosing jobs left, right and center. If you gave any EA in the country a single wish it would be for property prices to stabalise. Not surprisingly then the whole trust of the article is an admittance that property prices have fallen and fallen fast and they are stabilising and will go up in the future. i.e. Quick, buy now or yo’ll miss out on the bargains, they won’t last long.
This is where you let out a big sigh and shake your head asking yourself why the Times allows this disguised advertisment to be printed in their news paper. The answer is they want the advertising revenue that they got from property during the boom. So in effect the Sunday Times is in bed with the EA and the other property Vested Interests.

Accross the board in the article the have prices for 2008, 2009 and 2010. Obviously to have some credability the EAs need to embrase the truth. So, they admit prices are down 30%. They can’t deny that so they openly admit it to gain your trust. Now the trickery. They predict the future. They don’t say prices will start going up again by 15% because nobody would beleve that and the article would be laughed at. Instead they suggest that prices will stagnate and then start to go up slowly.

I dispute this. I’m not going to predict anything. I simply want to know why they think prices are going to stabilise and then rise. Take for example a two bed apartment in Dublin 2. Keenan has this as “2008=425,000 ,2009=360,000 ,2010=360,000”. Now lets consider who is likely to want a 2 bed apartment there. A late 20s professional perhaps. This person wold probably have a salary of around 40,000. So, lets work out the multiple. 360,000/40,000 = 9. WTF. Nine times this persons salary. Alsolutely completely unrealistic. The international norm is 2.5 to 3.5 times salary. This puts the price at around 120,000.
Based on what I’ve printed above I want to know on what sound economic basis these EAs think Ireland can sustain property at 9 times personal income when the world average is 300% less than this.
On the negative side. Unemployment is shooting up. People are in debt up to their ears. Immigrants are leaving. Irish people are starting to emigrate again. And on top of this we have a huge over supply of sub standard property that can’t get more than an F in our new energy efficiency measures.

Can anybody help me out and tell me what data these EAs used for their predictions? Or maybe they are hoping to talk us into a recovery.