I’ve been talking (and listening) to a few folk about SCD property prices in the last few days. Three of them are/were involved in selling property to some degree or another. A few interesting things came out of it -
The sweet spot for getting a quick sale is between 5 and 700k. Anything above that is attracting few buyers and spending a lot of time Sale agreed with a fair chance of falling through. This is borne out by bubblecovery’s analysis (viewtopic.php?f=4&t=66052&p=877815) which shows the average price in the 500k to 1m bracket at 674k (I’d like to know the median as well on this)
There are definitely fewer sales in SCD than last year but there are about the same number of properties for sale - apparently the slow uptake is ’ the late start to the selling season’ and things are ‘improving rapidly’.
There’s about the same number of people interested in buying 2m+ houses as there has ever been - but there are a lot more properties on the market in that price range than there have ever been. Buyers in this range generally have the funds and with plenty of choice are buying fairly quickly (they are all, as they keep telling us, ‘international people’).
Doer-uppers in SCD just aren’t selling - builders quote 100k just to start (apparently they have a full book of work and really don’t have to try that hard to get more) and buyers can’t get the finance for this kind of work. A lot of these are going SA and eventually falling through when the finance doesn’t materialise.
There appear to be a number of buyers who bought in the commuter belt who are coming back into SCD as their kids reach Secondary school age. They have paid (and sometimes overpaid) cheaper mortgages and are coming with equity - I guess some of these were people who bought about 10 years ago so would probably have paid down about 1/4 of their loan plus their initial deposit and in many cases that may beat the loss in value - they may also have been able to save in this period
Sellers who bought at higher prices are looking for higher prices than those who bought at lower prices (these would be typically downsizers and empty nesters) or who have inherited. This just seems like common sense but people in the property business seem to think this is some kind of hefty insight into the market
There is quite a lot of new and refurbished property coming on the market at the moment - apparently new builds were heavily delayed by the bad weather at the tail end of last year. There seems to be much stronger interest in new builds than in second-hand (perhaps the issue about renovation costs/finance is coming into play here again).
I also got a bit of gossip on the commercial front that there is already a ‘significant tenant’ for Vertium (the new block being built behind the Burlington). After the Amazon announcement I wonder if it’s them? Although Vertiums Q2 2017 date seems a bit too far ahead for the kind of speed that Amazon expands at.
Yes, I’ve heard that it’s quite difficult to get builders at the moment. Makes you wonder who’s going to build all those thousands of “social” houses that are planned? Lads home from Australia and Canada, I suppose. Or yet another wave of Eastern Europeans - who’ll all have to live somewhere, putting even more pressure on rents!
There are a lot of large core Dublin office developments that are being built at breakneck speed to get out before the competition (almost 8m sq ft of new grade A office coming on line in core Dublin from now to end 2018).
With the risk of a dot.com slow-down, every developer is killing themselves to get a locked-in lease (and ideally, a sale to a REIT, calling 1-800-HIBERNIAN) as soon as is possible. Hence they are paying up for crews to get things done even faster.
I think there’s two factors contributing to the popularity of new builds at the moment.
First off, build standards have improved. The energy efficiency of new dwellings is streets ahead of old dwellings and the minimum sizes have gone up, so new build 3 builds are usually 120sqm or more with things like a utility room which is unheard of in older 3 beds.
Secondly the market situation is crazy at the moment with back and forth bidding that rapidly increases prices, banks refusing to let properties go sale agreed and gazumping. Buying a new build means there’s a price listed, you agree to pay it and you’re done.
I’d love to count up the number of new builds around Dublin at the moment. I think there’s a lot more under active construction then people believe there is.
I’m finding this to be true. We have about 3 weeks work for a builder in SCD and nobody is interested. I’ve had more than 20 builders out at this point. Apparently the job isn’t big enough…
the 1,150 sq ft of existing house will cost c. 80-100k to re-fit (fully gutting out and re-wiring / re-plumbing / re-windows etc.)
if this was a +1m high-end house, the existing re-fit would cost closer to 150k all-in (125 per sq ft all-in for existing structure re-fit only - i.e. no knocking of walls or re-building of roof or other structural).
the separate 430 sq ft extension will - AT MINIMUM - cost +55k (very very cheap job), and more likely come out at 70k
(170 per sq ft all-in, and still not to the quality of a +1m higher-end, which would cost +90k, or +200 per sq ft all-in).
ignoring the garage, the work should therefore cost 135k (AT MINIMUM) and more likely 170k (all-in).
there are people who get workmen (usually from North Ire. or Polish) to do jobs closer to the 135k end, however you have to be very (very) careful here as you are sub 100 per sq ft all-in for the entire finished house (very difficult to achieve in Dublin), and ultimately it is not going to be a cheap finish. for c. 260k (175 per sq ft all-in), you could probably re-build from scratch (again, not to +1m house type standard, but comfortable and modern).
Popped into an estate house in Bray near one I was looking at. About 1350 sq ft.
The builder was near the end of a refurb: wiring / new heating system (burner, rads, piping, controls, etc) / warmboard / install (but not supply) flooring, kitchen, bathroom suites / new pvc windows / internal (cheap) doors, bit of landscaping, etc…
€53K ex VAT. He was also doing work on a long side garage: install pitched lean to roof, veluxs, change garage door etc for another €10K on top of that.
Shop around. And maybe look for builders outside Dublin who’ll travel in.
Much of your information is good but every now and then a little bit of challenge is good for the soul.
According to the lads in Green there is a potential 8.9m sq ft of new grade office coming on steam between now and 2020:
4.2m sq ft is under construction and will be available by end 2018. However 1.6m sq ft is pre-let leaving a net total of 2.6m sq ft to meet demand; and
a further 4.7m sq ft with planning but the majority of this not coming on line until 2018-2020. Again the lads in Green believe at least 1m sq of this will not proceed.
Putting these numbers in perspective 16.3m sq ft was delivered in the period 2004-2008 with only an additional 2.9m sq ft built in the intervening period to 2015. For information the 20 year average take up of office space in Dublin is 1.8m sq ft and the take-up rate in 2014 & 2015 was 2.4m and 2.7m sq. ft respectively (source: CBRE)
Perhaps the “paying up for crews to get thing done even faster” is a result of shifting from virtually no activity to delivering an expected 1.8m sq ft in 2016 and a wopping 2.3m sq ft in 2017.
