Property Price Register tomorrow - What will be the surprise

A challenge to all you property pundits on propertypin.ie. The sales price register is finally going live tomorrow. What will we learn from it that will be a surprise to us less prescient pinsters? A virtual-reality bottle of champagne to the most accurate now-cast. (It is not a forecast since it will reveal actual sales prices over the most recent two years past).

The biggest surprise will be if they don’t fuck it up.

The biggest surprise would be just how few sales have actually gone through since 2010.

+1

I reckon we’ll see cash sales at less than the 25-35% of the market that has been touted…

edit: not sure we’ll be able to tell that from the register though :blush:

@evilal - a witty answer (maybe a bit smutty) but not within the guidelines. Your now-cast is supposed to be a surprise to the common view but THAT YOU ARE PREDICTING and that others will find surprising. It sounds like you basically expect them to mess it up and will not be surprised when they do. Or something like that. No virtual champagne for you yet.

The biggest surprise for many members of the public, and something to stike fear through anyone who bought in the last 12 years with the intention of trading up:

Irish House clearing prices are now at 1996 levels adjusted for inflation.

Everyone in the country will be on this website once it fires up.
Its got great nosiness appeal, a bit like spying on distant friends facebook pictures but now you are checking out their biggest financial transaction.
Will blow away some of the EAs mirrors and smoke.
I don’t think they’ll be any great surprises, we’re well past that stage.

+1
ertainky don’t see any major shocks for any regulars on here.

I suspect the biggest surprise will be how well briefed certain elements of the print media will be so as to enable them to present an image of stable or increasing property prices. There won’t be any discussion about how far prices have fallen, but rather the media will be dominated by stories of houses achieving higher prices than previously (regardless of whether the stories are true or if the properties are in any way comparable). ‘Confidence in the Media’ has got a job to do.

If they don’t differentiate, one could work back from the mortgage draw down figures that the CBI release.

In a general sense yes, but what interests me is specific properties that I’ve followed. I expect lots of surprises and not just on the downside. I wonder what the actual price was for some apartments I viewed in Monkstown, for example.

If John Flemings house is listed :nin

We will see a drop in the number of house of daft and myhome for two reasons, it will create the impression property is shifting and EA’s won’t want adds + details hanging around for two long so make direct comparisons harder, nothing a little google caching can’t fix

Certainly merits special attention.

Oh and of course a certain Mr Farrells (Ex Nama) house in Lucan, and of course in the weeks and months to come Brendan And Asta Kelly home in Killiney, (the house not the tent) . And did I not read that the fragrant Gail Killeleas lovely home in Dublin had two bids on it. Jeez I am going to buy shares in a popcorn franchise cos half the country is going to be glued to this puppy

The surprise might be that it doesn’t get overloaded during the first few days of operation!

I’m always mindful of what happened in the UK in the early 1990s when a government new service was started to allow citizens to discover what information government databases had stored on them.

A call centre was setup and a number of staff were drafted in from other government departments to provide sufficient support in anticipation of the initial surge in demand for requests for information. In the end, what actually happened is that most of the staff had absolutely no work at all, despite full page adverts, TV campaign and the like.
After a few weeks the site was closed and the number diverted to another department to support as part of their usual work.

EDIT: excluding pinsters & EA’s of course :wink:

Hard to think that anything will be a surprise to folks in this parish.

The one that I think the general public will be surprised by is the really small number of properties that have sold for more than 500k.

I thank this has been constrained by the approach taken to mortgages by the banks - it looks better for them to do more small loans, and that not many people can come up with the 50k+ cash that they need to make an offer like that .

Looking at the Ranelagh market over the last year or so it seems to me that only those asking 600k or less have sold - I’ll be interested in seeing what the actual prices were.

Currently 6% of properties countrywide on MyHome are asking over 500k. I’ve done this analysis a few times - the nearest one I’ve found to the start of 2010 was just over 10%. (at that time 2.07% of houses were asking over 1m, now only 1.03% are).

I want to see how true this claim is

I’m shocked that Limerick has not fallen to to the same level (or below) Waterford (for example). Of all the cities, Limerick has been worst affected by unemployment.

What would be wonderful would be someone keeping the advert and linking copy to price database, so we could see exactly what it was that achieved that price.

Or does the wayback machine already do that.

archive.org/web/web.php

My transaction volumes proved right for July and August :slight_smile: (50-60 per day or 1000-1200 per month)