Property trends may lead to ‘unsustainable’ commutes - ESRI

irishtimes.com/business/econ … -1.2566874

In no specific order …

  1. Don’t build any social housing within the M50.

  2. Allow 25-story complexes in the city centre.

  3. Allow offices or industrial units (in designated areas) to convert to residential.

  4. Remove VAT on all aspects of a new build/conversion.

  5. Simplify the planning process.

namawinelake from 2011 :

namawinelake.wordpress.com/2011/03/21/house-building-costs-in-ireland-update/

If you don’t have social housing within the M50 then you’re actively discouraging those people from working.

Broadly agree on point 2-4 (although you can often already convert to residential in much of the city centre, I believe?)

The planning process I’m not sure about - simplify the red tape, perhaps, but you certainly don’t want to reduce oversight from the apparent near zero we had through the celtic tiger.

The key (as must surely be obvious?) is quality density in the city centre. We need to get to the point where a successful professional with a family can at least have options for apartment living (1500+ sq ft, ample parking (accessible with buggies etc), quality schools, ample recreational amenities, etc etc). Similarly young workers who want to live centrally shouldn’t be pushed out to the suburbs by prices either - it’s in everyone’s interests to increase the density of the central city, so we should be ensuring that those who want to live there can (in so far as is practical anyway).

I disagree.
Anyone on SW who wants to work will commute into town.
Also you are pushing those who *do *work further from town in favour of those who *may *work.

At least by eliminating SW housing from withiin the M50 area, you are giving priority to those who are working.
No hypothetical is necessary.
Those who do work in town, will benefit from a much shorter, easier commute.

There is no lack of housing in the rest of the country, the government, EI and IDA should be using carrots and sticks to get companies to open up anywhere but Dublin.

I’ve worked with some serious idiots in my time in Software Engineering. Most of these idiots are currently coasting from new development center to new development center as web 2.0 / cloud / whatever companies come to Dublin.

I can only begin to imagine the prize idiots you’re forced to hire when you open development centers outside of Dublin. Probably you get a mixed bag of the sublime and the ridiculous, but weighted towards the ridiculous.

Realistically you can’t create 100 dev & QA positions in a year outside of Dublin, you have to grow it over 4-5 years. Companies want to hire 50-100 in 12 months and will go 20% above market for rockstars in the first 3-6 months before filling their teams with nomadic incompetents thereafter.

Outside of the pale the candidate base will only support small startups and slower growth plans, companies with less aggressive VC backing who are trying to do it cheaper.

Why would you exclude social housing applicants? They are a tiny proportion of the population and are hardly going to make us run out of space. More than half of social housing applications are for one-bedroom dwellings. Most of the rest are single parents, for whom a lengthy commute into town would probably rule out the possibility of work permanently, not to mention the social disadvantage to their children. Sounds like a disaster.

No, but there is a lack of density. It’s hard enough replacing skilled staff in Dublin - doing so in most of the rest of the country is going to be even harder.

I would completely agree, except that I think there’s plenty of room inside the M50 for both groups. I calculated it (very roughly) as 200km2, which at Barcelona densities (as a decent mid-size, not particularly high rise city) is 1,000,000 people. I can’t find an actual figure for population currently inside the M50, but all of Dublin is only ~1.3 million, and Tallaght, Lucan, Blanchardstown, etc are all outside the M50, as well as a large area in the north of the county. We can comfortable accommodate at least a few hundred thousand more inside the M50 without breaking a sweat.

(For comparison only - at Manhattan densities you’d more or less fit everyone on the island inside the M50).

There’s also nothing magic about the M50 as a boundary. Meath and Kildare are close, flat and largely empty.

If the outer orbital were to get sorted it would increase road capacity substantially. The main rail bottleneck is (AFAIK) Connolly Station.

Yup, just picked it as a reasonable and convenient approximation of “pretty close to the city centre”. If traffic can be kept reasonably moving then that should be all within 45ish minutes commute of the centre (I’m sure it’s not at the moment, mind, but it probably could be).

Realistically, it would probably be better to encourage them to set up in just a few locations, rather than literally anywhere. People are more likely to apply for jobs if they know there are others nearby as insurance. Ireland’s problem isn’t so much that the countryside is unpopulated and has few jobs, which is true of practically all developed countries, but that Cork, Galway and Limerick are so small and underdeveloped compared to Dublin.

Incidentally, is this rush for Dublin by MNCs largely an IT and business services thing? When I’ve looked for jobs, the difficulty has been more in finding them near Dublin. I’d find a similar, but more extreme bias in the UK, where London and particularly inner London is a complete private sector employment wasteland. If you’re job hunting in manufacturing or industrial R&D, the employment landscape looks rather different.

Many if not most of the celtic tiger era commuter towns are completely impractical for anyone using public transport to use, and are really only feasible with a car. Their development should never have been permitted without better transport planning in the first place, but we are where we are… However, people on social welfare are substantially less likely to have a car or the means to operate one, so if you banish them to the middle of nowhere they’re likely to stay on social welfare for a very long time…

It’s worth remembering that unemployment was under 4% at times during the boom; it is currently nearly 9%, and that is after a lot of emigration. Most people now on social welfare were working and some point, and presumably will work again; it’d be foolish to make this more difficult.

I used to live in Stoneybatter. I sold last year and moved to a village outside Portarlington. I commute to a city centre job in software development. Door to door it’s 1h15m. The train from Portarlington takes only 45-55 minutes depending on the number of stops.

Commuting seems to be thought of some sort of universally bad thing. But there can be benefits in terms of quality of life and affordability that more than compensate for any lost time (if indeed there is any).

You don’t have to live in Dublin to work in Dublin. There are plenty of affordable houses available in the commuter towns along the train line - Portlaoise, Portarlington, Monasterevin, Kildare, Newbridge, Sallins, Naas, etc.

Strong coping here. :laughing: That’s 12 hours 30 minutes unto your 40 hour work week. I have done similar commutes before, albeit in properly planned cities, and do not plan to do them ever again.

You will always be amazed by paddies ability to explain away unnecessary hardship with the ‘ah shur’.

Coping isn’t a specifically Irish trait.

If 30 mins is a “normal” inside-the-M50 commute, then that Portarlington commute is an extra 90 mins a day, and that might just be a reallocation of reading time (or working time, whatever) so the actual loss can be quite tolerable.

It really depends on your mindset. There’s no point trying to persuade a Dub of the merits of leaving the Pale, I’ve overheard people in a city centre cafe moaning about moving “all the way out” to Terenure. :smiley:

It’s all down to personal preference, I suppose; being able to walk to work, and not having to bother with a car or much public transport, is quite important to me, but I’m sure many people would prefer the bigger house and not mind the commute it entails. At least where that commute’s somewhat reasonable; I refuse to believe that anyone driving two hours either way a day is particularly happy about it, say.

Another IT article in the same vein:

‘Dublin’s homebuyers again look to commuter belt’

It can’t help another dig at the CB lending rules:

Did he take a poll to determine that people are so falling over themselves in the rush to buy property that they can’t wait a year? There’s no chance it’s because Dublin property is TOO FUCKING EXPENSIVE?!

The Line from Heuston passes via several virtual ghost stations before it reaches Celbridge, huge potential for commuter accommodation along there.

Some of my colleagues in Bangalore have a regular each way commute of two hours and it can be five in the rains… :neutral_face:
Luckily it doesn’t rain all that much…

I’m not sure that’s what I’m doing.

It certainly doesn’t feel like hardship. Sitting on a train for 45 minutes comes under the category of first world problems for me. And as yoganmahew wrote, I use the time to work, if busy, and to read or watch TV if I’m not busy.

The pros outweigh the cons for me - I moved from a small terraced house with a tiny garden to a large detached house with a big garden, and sold the former for more than I bought the latter.

The kids have plenty of room to play both inside and outside, and and there’s less of a need to be “streetwise”. Their schools have lower teacher-to-pupil ratios than the schools in Dublin so they get more attention.

The pace of life is much slower for me and my wife, too.

You could argue the decision to move to the country was forced on us - we wanted more space both inside and out, and the type of house available to us in Dublin would have cost three or four times as much as we could afford, and maybe that’s a housing policy consequence - but it feels very much like a choice that we made, and are happy with.