PTSB/ERSI for August


#1
Ireland August House Prices: Summary (Table)                           Page

By Joel Rinneby
     Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Following is a summary of August Ireland
house prices from permanent tsb and ESRI in Dublin:
*T
============================================================================
                        Aug.    July    June     May   April   March    Feb.
                        2008    2008    2008    2008    2008    2008    2008
============================================================================
                    -------------------------- YoY -------------------------
National               -9.9%   -9.4%   -9.7%   -9.5%   -9.2%   -8.9%   -8.8%
Outside Dublin         -9.5%   -8.5%   -8.3%   -8.4%   -8.4%   -8.8%   -8.8%
Dublin                 -8.8%   -8.2%   -9.4%  -10.4%  -10.0%   -9.1%   -8.9%
New Houses             -8.7%   -8.7%   -8.8%   -8.3%   -7.6%   -5.8%   -6.0%
Existing Houses       -10.5%  -10.0%  -10.1%  -10.0%   -9.3%   -9.3%   -9.3%
First Time Buyers      -9.8%   -8.7%   -8.7%   -9.4%  -10.0%  -10.2%   -8.9%
Second Time Buyers    -10.1%   -9.5%   -9.9%   -9.9%   -8.9%   -8.8%   -8.8%
Commuter Counties      -9.0%   -9.4%   -8.5%   -7.9%   -6.8%   -7.1%   -7.4%
3 Bed Semi             -5.0%   -3.9%   -2.0%   -2.9%   -3.5%   -4.4%   -3.9%

============================================================================
============================================================================
                        Aug.    July    June     May   April   March    Feb.
                        2008    2008    2008    2008    2008    2008    2008
============================================================================
                    -------------------------- MoM -------------------------
National               -0.9%   -0.2%   -0.6%   -1.2%   -1.1%   -0.7%   -0.8%
Outside Dublin         -1.3%   -0.4%   -0.8%   -0.8%   -0.8%   -0.6%   -1.3%
Dublin                 -0.8%   -0.6%   -0.2%   -1.6%   -0.9%   -0.2%   -1.1%
New Houses             -0.4%   -0.2%   -1.3%   -1.7%   -2.0%   -0.5%   -0.4%
Existing Houses        -1.0%   -0.2%   -0.4%   -1.5%   -0.8%   -0.7%   -0.4%
First Time Buyers      -1.2%   -0.4%   -0.2%   -1.2%   -0.6%   -1.3%   -1.0%
Second Time Buyers     -0.8%   -0.2%   -0.6%   -1.5%   -1.1%   -0.5%   -0.4%
Commuter Counties      -0.8%   -1.2%   -1.4%   -0.9%   -1.5%   -0.5%   -1.0%
3 Bed Semi             -0.2%   -1.4%   -0.5%   -1.3%    0.1%    0.2%   -0.5%
                    --------------------- Price in EUR ---------------------
National             270,493 272,946 273,392 275,176 278,521 281,643 283,650
Outside Dublin       232,570 235,622 236,576 238,484 240,392 242,300 243,826
Dublin               374,302 377,316 379,727 380,329 386,658 390,274 390,877
New Houses           271,016 272,099 272,532 276,215 280,981 286,614 287,913
Existing Houses      270,445 273,142 273,592 274,716 278,987 281,236 283,259
First Time Buyers    242,568 245,539 246,529 246,925 249,895 251,281 254,647
============================================================================
                        Aug.    July    June     May   April   March    Feb.
                        2008    2008    2008    2008    2008    2008    2008
============================================================================
Second Time Buyers   303,105 305,625 306,380 308,144 312,931 316,459 317,970
Commuter Counties    296,416 298,866 302,541 306,705 309,400 314,054 315,524
3 Bed Semi           286,249 286,918 290,934 292,496 296,289 296,066 295,619
                    --------------------- Index Levels ---------------------
National               121.3   122.4   122.6   123.4   124.9   126.3   127.2
Outside Dublin         121.9   123.5   124.0   125.0   126.0   127.0   127.8
Dublin                 124.2   125.2   126.0   126.2   128.3   129.5   129.7
New Houses             125.1   125.6   125.8   127.5   129.7   132.3   132.9
Existing Houses        120.3   121.5   121.7   122.2   124.1   125.1   126.0
First Time Buyers      122.5   124.0   124.5   124.7   126.2   126.9   128.6
Second Time Buyers     120.3   121.3   121.6   122.3   124.2   125.6   126.2
Commuter Counties      121.0   122.0   123.5   125.2   126.3   128.2   128.8
3 Bed Semi             128.3   128.6   130.4   131.1   132.8   132.7   132.5
============================================================================
NOTE: For the index, base year = 2003.
The commuter counties are Louth, Meath, Kildare and Wicklow.
3 Bed Semi shows the prices for 3 bedroom, semi-detached houses.

Source: permanent tsb, ESRI
*T
For Related News:
For economic statistic tables: TNI ECO TABLE BN<GO>
To see the Bloomberg News Table of the Day: TECO <GO>
--Editor: Mark Evans

#2

So after the last two we saw lots of reports about the rate of decline moderating, I wonder will we see lots of reports about the accelerating rate of decline now.


#3

The reduction in the reversal trend of house price inflation has abated…


#4

From the Irish Times Online

irishtimes.com/newspaper/bre … king58.htm


#5

fxcentre.com/news.asp?2287340


#6

None of this really make any sense without knowing how many sales there were.


#7

New Houses down 8.7%

Existing Houses down 10.5%

And the government want to subsidise these developers who still refuse to engage with market reality.


#8

Anyone want to drag up the most recent BOI report which gave predictions based on a slowing rate of decline?


#9

National Market has gone back to the past to about late September '05
Dublin Market is checking out early January '06


#10

is that asking sale prices or actual?


#11

Well now, there I was being all cynical about the media and they go and say the rate accelerated.


#12

Statistics is like women’s underware. They reveal a lot but but hide the most important things.


#13

I think the phrase is:

reveals the enticing, conceals the essentials.


#14

Or, enhances that which isn’t there, and hides that which is :wink:


#15

“The price barometer clearly indicates that the decline in the pace of the inflation of the deceleration of the inverse price anomaly has slightly intensified”

Thanks Marian, so prices are continuing to plummet?


#16

We are being asked to believe that Irish House prices have outperformed almost
every other asset class anywhere on the planet in the last year.

Stock markets fall 20% or more, financial system and banks in near collapse, commodities fall, emerging markets in turmoil.

But Irish Houses, greatest investment ever, down a modest 10%?

Q: Why publish manifestly ridiculous statistics?

A: To enable Irish Banks to mis-mark their mortgage loan books with connivance of the central bank.

Meanwhile, at government buildings, they hatch a scheme to support these phoney prices.

:question:


#17

The pyramid that is stacked on these figures is huge. How they manage to keep the falls so low must take alot of work.

The best model is the model that gives the answer you want …and need. Every single property market in Dublin that I know has dropped minimum 20% from apartments to high end.

Of course all foreign investors have decided that all Irish models are absolute rubbish.


#18

Here’s a stab at things that I would hope a reasonable journalist could easily write with just a bare minimum of reserach.

  1. Clearly indicate that property values as per the PTSB/ESRI report are based on a “valuation” rather than “sale price” methodology,
  2. Back this up by conducting interviews with the PTSB/ESRI and CSO and Department of Finance individuals as to how come real sale price data is not being used to produce a real index that has substantive, rather than creative, meaning.
  3. Ask the hard questions. Print the names of the individuals in those organizations above.
  4. Repeat the same questions to mininisters with responsibility, i.e. Minister of the Environment.
  5. Raise a freedom of information request if has to be to actually get real sale price information versus valuation information.
  6. Be topical, be newsworthy.

Surely this could be a wonderful front page article to be published in a week or two in the middle of the Autumn Selling season, when lots of houses are sitting on the market at 2006 prices that should be definitely marked down by at least 20% to 30%.

Journalists,
If there are any of you out there on the Pin, can you get a story like this highlighted clearly in the media?


#19

A story like that would require a Journo with two things; Balls, & Initiative. Good luck finding one in Ireland. We don’t have any Woodward & Bernsteins !

Oh, & don’t forget, assuming such a Journo exists on this island, they still have to have an editor that won’t immediately spike teh story.