PTSB/ESRI for Sept


#1

Not sure what’s happened to the breakdown.


#2

They probably realised all the N/As were starting to look a bit embarassing :angry:


#3

-1.5% in August, -1.1 in Sept.

Prepare to be told that we are bottoming out again!


#4

A nice orderly slow steady decline. How absolutely lovely.

minus one point something per cent AGAIN

No sense in panicing the horses :roll


#5

Do you have a link? Can’t fing it on their site or indeed Bloomberg.


#6

Surely they will be trying to keep up the pretence till they are out of gubberment and when whoever gets in floodgates open?


#7

the ESRI have it on their website:
esri.ie/irish_economy/perman … i_house_p/

the pdf linked on the site says AUGUST in its filename though


#8

I don’t have a link. On Bloomberg type NSE ESRI

Here’s the breakdown. You can see from the numbers there’s been a real easing in the pace of increase in N/As

[code]

                   Sept.    Aug.    July    June     May   April   March
                    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009

============================================================================
-------------------------- YoY -------------------------
National -13.1% -13.0% -12.5% -11.7% -10.9% -10.7% -10.0%
Dublin -19.1% -18.0% -17.1% -15.8% -14.8% -14.3% -14.2%
Outside Dublin -11.8% -12.1% -11.1% -10.4% -10.5% -10.8% -9.9%
New Houses n/a n/a -10.4% -10.5% -11.5% -11.1% -10.5%
Existing Houses n/a n/a -12.9% -11.8% -10.4% -11.7% -11.0%
First Time Buyers n/a n/a -19.2% -18.8% -17.6% -17.4% -14.3%
Second Time Buyers n/a n/a -9.7% -9.0% -8.6% -9.5% -9.8%
Commuter Counties n/a n/a n/a -18.8% -17.6% -17.8% -17.9%
3 Bed Semi n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

============================================================================

                   Sept.    Aug.    July    June     May   April   March
                    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009

============================================================================
-------------------------- MoM -------------------------
National -1.1% -1.5% -1.1% -1.5% -1.3% -1.9% -1.0%
Dublin -2.1% -1.9% -2.2% -1.3% -2.2% -1.1% -1.2%
Outside Dublin -1.3% -2.4% -1.2% -0.7% -0.4% -1.7% -1.1%
New Houses n/a n/a -0.1% -0.3% -2.1% -2.6% -1.9%
Existing Houses n/a n/a -1.5% -1.9% -0.1% -1.5% -0.4%
First Time Buyers n/a n/a -0.9% -1.7% -1.4% -4.1% -0.3%
Second Time Buyers n/a n/a -1.1% -1.0% -0.5% -0.8% -1.1%
Commuter Counties n/a n/a n/a -2.8% -0.6% -1.4% -0.6%
3 Bed Semi n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
--------------------- Price in EUR ---------------------
National 232,584 235,260 238,828 241,504 245,295 248,640 253,546
Dublin 300,466 306,795 312,822 319,754 323,973 331,206 334,822
Outside Dublin 201,853 204,524 209,485 211,965 213,491 214,445 218,261
New Houses n/a n/a 243,719 243,936 244,586 249,785 256,501
Existing Houses n/a n/a 237,847 241,444 246,165 246,390 250,212
First Time Buyers n/a n/a 198,411 200,193 203,560 206,530 215,440

                   Sept.    Aug.    July    June     May   April   March
                    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009

============================================================================
Second Time Buyers n/a n/a 275,894 278,917 281,689 283,200 285,468
Commuter Counties n/a n/a n/a 245,707 252,811 254,281 257,956
3 Bed Semi n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
--------------------- Index Levels ---------------------
National 104.3 105.5 107.1 108.3 110.0 111.5 113.7
Dublin 99.7 101.8 103.8 106.1 107.5 109.9 111.1
Outside Dublin 105.8 107.2 109.8 111.1 111.9 112.4 114.4
New Houses n/a n/a 112.5 112.6 112.9 115.3 118.4
Existing Houses n/a n/a 105.8 107.4 109.5 109.6 111.3
First Time Buyers n/a n/a 100.2 101.1 102.8 104.3 108.8
Second Time Buyers n/a n/a 109.5 110.7 111.8 112.4 113.3
Commuter Counties n/a n/a n/a 100.3 103.2 103.8 105.3
3 Bed Semi n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

NOTE: For the index, base year = 2003.
The commuter counties are Louth, Meath, Kildare and Wicklow.
3 Bed Semi shows the prices for 3 bedroom, semi-detached houses.

Source: permanent tsb, ESRI[/code]


#9

PTSB / ESRI = Not Applicable.

But then we knew that already, still the journos will print this trash. :unamused:


#10

Have we reached peak ‘n/a’?


#11

Nah, one more to go. The “Outside Dublin” category will be next… Jan 10…


#12

Dublin prices have slipped beneath the 2003 index.


#13

Oh sweet Jesus.

Whatever diploma mill these ERSI guys got there qualifications from, they really should look for a refund.

So they don’t have enough data to calculate the stats for the individual categories of housing. But, they think its just fine to shmush all the data they have together to calculate the overall stats.

Brilliant !

So I no longer have enough bananas to calculate a statistically valid mean length; so instead I’ll add in these cucumbers as well to the sample & sure the mean of all those will probably be about right anyway. XX


#14

news.eircom.net/breakingnews/167 … w=Standard

To paraphrase Fianna Fail:

A lot of house prices wiped out, a lot more to wipe out.

It’ll all be over when they are at Christmas 2000 prices,


#15

The spin will go as follows…

The figures are showing a significant slowdown in the rate of price falls.
We reckon the figures lag the actual morket by 3 or 4 months anyway.

Which means we are already close to the bottom, only it won’t show up in the figures for a another couple of months.

Yes good folks of Amity Island, its safe to go back in the water now.
There is no shark out there!
Nothing to see here, get back in the water now.
Back in, back in…


#16

What sample size (in absolute terms) does an n/a imply?

And like a poster above, I cannot understand how they have so many sub-categories as n/a but can some how produce an overall figure. Makes no sense, except to suggest the survey is so crude as to be meaningless.


#17

For some reason, I have a figure of sub 200 in my mind… It may have been addressed in a previous ESRI thread or I might simply have dreamt it…

Who needs volume data anyway… :imp:


#18

I await next month’s minus one point something % adjustment.

And the one after that.

ESRI PTSB, the -1.x% index.