There’s a stronger chance than “may” that the PRD will be reduced/removed. They’ve already moved the entry point to the PRD substantially over the last couple years. Clearly it is the mechanism of choice for pay “restoration”. Of course when we have another financial crisis the PRD will come back so perhaps it’s safer to pretend it’ll be around for 40 years.
Since there is tax relief for public pension deductions a comparison to tax approved revenue schemes would be more appropriate i.e one where you buy an annuity at retirement, that turns the 250k into an annual payment of around 10-12k - less depending on whether it continues to your spouse or if it’s index linked.
A 371k fund is useful but modest and would get you a 121k lump sum + 10 k annuity + whatever the PRSI pension would be. A fund to finance 120k plus 40k p.a plus index + plus spouse would be closer to 1m.
Ignoring wage inflation and pension fund growth is fine, but ignoring contrib pension “inflation” isn’t something private sector workers can do. Since it’s far more likely it will in real terms deflate or become partly means tested.
I assume the contrib pension will be 0 or negligible for my pension planning purposes. They’ve already made it zero for when I will be 65-68 - pretty hefty deflation already.
As some have pointed the introduction of career average pensions affecting private sector workers moving into the public sector will decrease the cost of pensions - but you’re looking at 2050+ before you’ll have most retirees on those pensions (you need to consider even in 30 to 40 years most of the then current retirees will still be on the final salary pension). I think it’s safe to predict we’ll have problems before 2050.