Q1 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions

Public Emotional response to house market

  • Optimism
  • Excitement
  • Thrill
  • Euphoria
  • Anxiety
  • Denial
  • Fear
  • Desperation
  • Panic
  • Capitulation
  • Despondency
  • Depression
  • Hope
  • Relief

0 voters

Previous polls: September 2007 | January 2008 | April 2008 | July 2008 | September 2008 | January 2009 | April 2009 | July 2009 | September 2009 | January 2010 | April 2010 | July 2010 | September 2010

Based on general conversations with your friends, colleagues, or intuition what do you reckon the public mood towards the house market is?

Denial.

I’m at Excitement…but then again, I’m a renter.

Updated original post with poll and links.

Thanks what goes up

I still think denial amonst many vendors. Or perhaps they are setting their asking prices deliberately high to compensate for low offers and allowing themselves wiggle room for negotiation…

I voted Fear. Price levels have not reached desperation yet.

Is it time to split this by region? Some places seem to be a lot further along the cycle than others

I too said fear, but could also have said desperation.
As far as I can tell, we are in a transitional period between the two.

Roadhouse, the way I see it, price levels will still be (relatively) high when we enter into the desperation phase.
To me, desperation occurs when people reduce their prices as low as* **they ***can afford to put them (i.e. before unsustainable negative equity is crystalised), but it still refuses to sell.
It’s at the capitulation phase that prices collapse.

Perhaps others view ‘desperation’ in a different light ?

I chose “fear” because even the dumbest shithead knows the IMF is in town and the banks are fucked.

The dumbest shitheads are running the country damn it.
They might know the IMF are in town since they invited them in.
They are in partnership with the banks and with the major vested interests in this mess of a nation.
To be clear the “they” that I am referring to are the permanent government, the politicians, the banks and major corporations (including in first place the banks etc.).

These are the guys that are generally presently unaffected by much at all of this.

Still denial out there. That’s why I voted for it.

I agree completely -but with only one option in the poll, I thought Fear was more representative.

By far the strongest sentiment indicator is price, -it’s there in black and white, general public sentiment, pub talk, news paper coverage is more subjective.
On that front I don’t think we have reached desperation yet. Surely a desperate seller would hugely undercut the market to generate a sale. -I just have not seen that yet.

There is certainly some desperation out there, but until it’s reflected in asking prices I don’t think desperation is the over riding emotion.

I sold my Castleknock house in 2009 (thanks so much Pinsters I owe you all a pint). But I still see identical houses looking for €50k more than what I sold my house for over a year ago = DENIAL.

I also think it’s freakin’ hilarious the posters here voting capitulation and despondancy when nobody has even voted panic. Laughable - you wish.

Personally this Christmas everywhere I went I saw packed pubs and restaurants. When the next credit card bill comes and their wages have been savaged by the IMF flavoured budgets, then we might start seeing fear.

But I think the reason we haven’t seen much fear and no panic yet is the mentality a lot of people have that no matter how bad their situation gets they’ll get a ‘bailout’. Once this rug is pulled out (and by God it better be, I’m not sticking around in this country if I’ve to pay anyone’s mortgage) we’ll start to see the slide.

To get an idea just how far we’ve to fall yet, read the current Politics.ie thread on house prices - plenty of FF fanboys still reckon NAMA will save the day!

From talking to people especially over the Christmas, we are definitely past denial. I think when people told me “sure it can’t get any worse” there was a quivering uncertainty/fear behind those words. Unlike previously where I’d been told point blank “the worst is behind us” and “houses are cheaper than ever” plus “it’s probably a good time to buy”. I think I’d only one person say something along those lines this Christmas.

You can’t look at this poll: irishtimes.com/polls/index.c … 2&answer=0 and think that the overriding emotion is still denial.

We’re approaching the halfway point for price falls, depending on your point of view, so I’d say we should be approaching halfway on the downward side on the cycle of emotions i.e. Fear

Definately exiting denial and entering fear. It might not appear as such as I believe a lot of people while acceptant of the crash still believe that they’re going to get some sort of bailout. As the election approaches they may finally realise that rearranging the deck chairs achieves nothing and then it’s everyone for themselves.

Still wobbling on the Denial/Fear boundary with the majority still in Denial. Sure it’s only been 4 years.

Nah - you could say the same about two houses on the same road with five-figure differences in asking prices. Ultimately, the cycle of emotions is only a barometer of the general mood of the country wrt property prices.

For me, I voted fear. Desperation will be a crystallisation of those fears - fear of reduced incomes (higher taxes) and increased mortgage repayments (rising interest rates).

I’m not convinced we’ll ever see capitulation in this property market. Just too much bloody government interference. We’ve had govt capitulation (IMF) before we’ve had market capitulation.

I think we might be going from fear to despondency and trying to skip all the bits in the middle. Also, where does “arrahfuckitwhatcanyoudo” fit in on that curve?

I voted for Fear but we seam to be a bit stuck on Fear / Denial

I went for anxiety. Wider public not as far along as the 'pin, by a country mile.

Anxiety? :open_mouth:

Ah come on, most people who hear I’m renting and sold in 2007 tell me how lucky I was. If they weren’t through denial, they’d be telling me I’m nuts!

With 40% drops, we’re well past denial in this model anyway. Remember it refers to denial about the market turning down, not denial about where it might end up.