Q3 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions

Public Emotional response to house market

  • Optimism
  • Excitement
  • Thrill
  • Euphoria
  • Anxiety
  • Denial
  • Fear
  • Desperation
  • Panic
  • Capitulation
  • Despondency
  • Depression
  • Hope
  • Relief

0 voters

Previous polls: September 2007 | January 2008 | April 2008 | July 2008 | September 2008 | January 2009 | April 2009

Based on general conversations with your friends, colleagues, or intuition what do you reckon the public mood towards the house market is?

Previously I thought we were at Fear, but now I think people are in Denial.(from reading AAM)

I know a couple of BTL’er who are selling now in the hope of breaking even (purchase 2005+), can’t see it happeneing though.

Inbetween Denial and Fear…Green Shoots…

It is often said a drowning man will grasp at straws, are “green shoots” simply an expression of desperation as the vested interests grasp at any economic data to further prop up their agenda?

I crunched the respondent numbers from the previous polls. What happened in Jul-08 - holidays :question:
Other than that blip, the trend mirrors the national debt.

Sep-07 29
Jan-08 37
Apr-08 83
Jul-08 63
Sep-08 101
Jan-09 140

I vote denial - both general populace and government.

We are darn slow learners. Still in denial.

I think this is just a large-ish minority of individuals - the vast majority are in fear.

According to the model, denial is expecting things to not get worse. Fear is expecting things to get worse but you still hope you get away with it before it does. I think this is where we are.

Lots of people don’t realise they are on a cycle, they still think “the ship is listing but it can’t sink, it shan’t sink, they said it was unsinkable”. It may be denial but there’s fear in their hearts. I think fear may be the shortest of all the emotions on this ride.

Depends on how long before BOC takes to realize Jim Power now has some credibility after terminating his trip to Damascus, a painful process involving ridicule but something that has to be dealt with. He’s already taken the first step by admitting it was all a scam. Once people like BOC and Izzy tell the masses that the Cannys and Savvys now trying to lock in any gains at all and off loading the nine BTLs before the repo men come for the Z4, then we’ll see some serious movement but it will take 12 months of continued job losses I fear. I often fear we could have another bubble a lot sooner than would be normal, ie in 8 or 10 years time as most of the population think that the business model of buying as many properties in itself is a sound proposition if it wasn’t for Lehmans, Scooby Doo and those pesky kids.

I would have thought denial heading towards fear but I have seen a definite bounce back to denial recently - I’ve been told “great time to buy” by several otherwise intelligent individuals. No amount of facts or rational argument can change their minds as they stare at me like I’ve two heads for dampening their optimism. I suppose most home owners or prospective owners just want to believe we are at the bottom.

Still a level of denial that would put an ostrich to shame

+1 to that.

And another amen. Quote of the weekend - “You don’t want to miss the boat, now do you?!” Gah.

I agree Denial and the reason being I just dont think people realise just how bad it is out there and how much shite the country is in. It will take cutting the dole and health services etc to drive this home bacause people suffer from lethargy to a great degree in this country in that i.e. “if it doesnt affect me then Im not interested” and that plays into the governments hands.

There’s fear because people have realised things are bad
and Denial because people don’t realisehow bad.

where does the dead cat bounce figure on this cycle…because I firmly believe thats what we are now entering.

I haven’t voted, as I can’t choose just one option to encapsulate the mood. I think we are in a large spread from denial through to capitulation.

I think that there are a lot of house-sellers out there who have realised which way the wind is blowing, and are capitulating. These are the ones whose properties are selling.

There are also the sellers who have their fingers stuffed in their ears and are singing ‘la la la la’.

I think the point made by Ozzy about people knowing things are bad, but not quite HOW bad is very valid.

I also agree with Django in that there is a dead cat bounce going on. I think that this is due to a variety of factors - (i) a decrease in prices is making houses, relatively, seem ‘cheap’/‘good value’; (ii) it’s sunny; (iii) boredom - people are bored of the recession - ‘enough already’, and are resuming their normal behaviour.

ETA: I just voted ‘fear’, which I suppose captures where I am. I am interested in buying, but the prospect of further wage cuts and increased taxes means that I am loath to commit myself to a scheme of repayments based on my current situation. I would also hate to buy now and see prices end up 100K down in a year. So, again, fear-based logic.

Think that’s probably ewd3 you’re referring to:

but thanks for the plug anyway 8DD

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As I have said before, whilst some folk appreciate the situation, others are still in denial and will remain in denial all the way to the bottom.

I am definitely seeing evidence of denial, fear and desperation, but not panic just yet.

Which boat would that be…Titanic or Lusitania…?