Q3 2010 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions

Public Emotional response to house market

  • Optimism
  • Excitement
  • Thrill
  • Euphoria
  • Anxiety
  • Denial
  • Fear
  • Desperation
  • Panic
  • Capitulation
  • Despondency
  • Depression
  • Hope
  • Relief

0 voters

Previous polls: September 2007 | January 2008 | April 2008 | July 2008 | September 2008 | January 2009 | April 2009 | July 2009 | September 2009 | January 2010 | April 2010

Based on general conversations with your friends, colleagues, or intuition what do you reckon the public mood towards the house market is?

With price falls of 50% we are past fear and denial at this stage.

Might be better to do this by region at this stage as some parts of the country are further along than others

I’ve voted fear but there are plenty of people in denial out there. Including people who have lost their jobs, lost income, can’t pay their bills. I genuinely believe that they think that this is OK. They have an acceptability of their situation, akin to a sort of capitulation. They believe that they cannot do anything about it. Although there is a recognition of the issues, they have failed to move on from their current mind state. They are entered into a period of super stasis and will remain thus embalmed until the relic hunters come to dig them out (either when this is over or other drastic changes occur). My two cents, all personal opinion.

Fear, absolutely. How can anyone think the cycle has moved beyond that to desperation? There isn’t any sign of desperation reflected in current asking prices. The most voiced emotion we hear reflected in the media is fear -

What if I lose my job? What will I do if there isn’t a NAMA for the people? When, oh when will prices return to normal?

Deperation will have to accompany a significant drop in house prices from where we’re at. A few lemmings have dropped over the cliff but that’s it. It’s a slow process.

I agree with you in respect of “stasis” some people out there are walking around in a dream and clinging on to the FF denial rhetoric of “it was beyond our control” and “nobody saw it coming” as a way to avoid any personal responsibility hoping that some politician will come along to bail them out.
If it were up to me I’d end that wish in a flash because this type of shit is one of the things thats wrong in this country (from the top down). So what do I think well based on what Ive seen in peoples faces and based on asking prices for property Denial it is as I dont think the shit has hit the fan hard enough yet to really frighten people but I do believe its coming.

I used to be in the fear/denial camp but I’ve realized from speaking to a lot of people that there is an underlying hope out there. Founded by nothing but irrationality but never the less thats what I’ve seen. I think in the past I have confused the Irish market with a properly functioning market. The rules get changed and the goal posts will be moved constantly because the folk who need to supply this hope know it is directly proportional to saving their own arses. It comes back to a gombeen version of the solvency/irrational quote. I wouldn’t use the cycle as choosing a time to buy. I’d rely on GNP and employment growth. For those out there bedecked in short sleeve checkered shirts, its as if the cycle sin wave has a dc offset that applies only when the slope is negative.

My two cent.

I could be wrong but you may be confusing hope with denial (or in the case of some people out there stupidity). :wink:

For the most part, I reckon people are still in denial. I’m constantly amazed at the blasé attitude of some folk with regards to the market, the economy and the Govt. Its only now are there slight whispers of the govt. acknowledging some small part in the whole crash - that’s denial. God forbid anybody mention a dead cat bounce or a double dip… they’ll deny that’ll probably happen. Sure aren’t we out of recession already?! Or could that be denial?!

The most common statement I’m hearing is in and around…

“Surely, they won’t fall much further…”

So disbelief is that denial or despondency?

There you have it, folks. Six more weeks of winter.

You could just cut and past previous surveys on here as, despite asking prices falling 30% or more over the past 30 months, comments and survey results are almost identical.

The % going for Denial, Fear and Desperation in previous surveys were:
Q1 '08 = 78%
Q4 '08 = 86%
Q1 '09 = 83%
Q2 '09 = 86%
Q3 '09 = 86%
Q4 '09 = 85%
Q1 '10 = 77%
Q2 '10 = 80%
Q3 '10 = 79% (so far)

I voted fear, but I think it’s a mix of fear and denial, depending on the individual. Asking prices definitely still indicate denial. There is a certain amount of fear behind closed doors though.


‘‘Yeah, I guess they won’t fall any further…’’

I think when we see alot of fire sales from repossessions/liquidation, desperation & panic will kick in alot more than what we see now. Plenty of fear out there at the min.

Where’s the “String quartet playing as the Titanic goes down” option because that’s the only one that comes close to describing the Irish market. Ireland is different.

Not exactly my Roman friend, my point is that, there isn’t as much denial any more, that’s been done, now there is hope that some how we are at the bottom and to quote “things, can only get better”, without going through capitulation etc.

The way I see it we are at a point similar to the collapse of the AIB share price. It went from 23 to 13 then back to 16. So we had our dead cat bounce, the greedy (or those institutionalised in the system of Banks/Church/FF) ploughed in and lost even more. We followed the cycle and are only awaiting more nationalisation. This is because it was an open market, thanks to shares being subject to certain rules.
These rules don’t apply here, everything from nama to re-election to consumer confidence depends on Joe Soaps house not falling further. There was a bit of glee here 12 months ago when we had the link to the landlords site, there was much gnashing of teeth there when the government started reducing the tax exemption on their interest. We should not be surprised if the housing market gets a similar goal post moving treatment for the benefit of the government. I’m not saying we are anywhere near the bottom, I am saying that one shouldn’t expect the cycle to be followed. Call it the banana republic factor. A government which is willing to sell our kids futures so save their tent dwelling friends would not blink an eye at load the future with more of todays problems, excusing it by calling it “the national interest”. Just because we are right, on the pin, doesn’t mean we win the contest.

I get exactly the same thing, when I ask why they can’t fall any further I get “Becuase they just can’t!!”

I think people that have lost their jobs and are really struggling have already hit desparation and maybe panic.
Any that bought during the bubble and is in massive negative equity is just coming out of denial and into fear as they try to be as optimistic about their siuation as possible.
Anyone that was a property millionaire by buying in the 80’s 90’s and will not enter negative equity are firmly stuck in denial as it doesn’t have any immediate effect on them unless they need to sell, when they then need to sell they seem to skip the whole cycle and are now verging on optmism.

So if I was to average all of these out I would have to say fear, even though I think denial is rampant.


That was 5 months ago.

I voted **fear **but when I think about it hearsay comes from alot of people that aren’t actually in the market from a buyers or a sellers perspective. They’ve bought and are living in a house and so their opinion shouldn’t matter as much. Unless they’re struggling with bills and repayments.

If we were going by prices we probably are at the **desperation **stage though. Looking back at the previous polls it’s been fear for the last 2 years. I think the market has moved on somewhat and would like to vote again. Is that possible?

I still can’t vote for desperation, despite thinking for the last 3 or 4 of these surveys that I would surely be voting for it next time. But nope…the good ship Irish Sentiment is no further than the mouth of the Harbour of Denial on it’s choppy journey to the Port of Desperation - so still closer to the former than the latter for me.