Q4 2008 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions

Public Emotional response to house market

  • Optimism
  • Excitement
  • Thrill
  • Euphoria
  • Anxiety
  • Denial
  • Fear
  • Desperation
  • Panic
  • Capitulation
  • Despondency
  • Depression
  • Hope
  • Relief

0 voters

Previous polls: September 2007 | January 2008 | April 2008 | July 2008

Based on general conversations with your friends, colleagues, or intuition what do you reckon the public mood towards the house market is?

It has to be fear

With a side order of desperation…

Fear though heading towards desperation.

Dunno still a lot of denial out there

Denial/fear.

I honestly believe there is a little bit of panic

fear on the way to desperation. people realize whats happening but it will take another few weeks months before desperation sets in

Looking at the previous polls, it looks like it’ll take another 4 quarters to get to the bottom. October 2009 may be a great shopping season. Till then I’ll sit on my deposit and savour my ‘no chain buyer’ status. I am getting overwhelmed by optimism already.

A friend works for a smallish developer. Judging from what I heard in the pub last weekend its definitely into desperation. Tears, pressure, helicopter gone, offices gone, backs to the wall time.

I think for different segments of the market, the worm is turning at different points:

  • existing home sellers - still in denial
  • BTL owners - fear (I had two people in the last two weeks ask me how I saw the market going - I didn’t even know they had BTLs)
  • residential developers - some are in desperation, others are still in fear.
  • larger developers - denial while it looks like there will be jobs from the NDP - fear thereafter
  • building trades - fear
  • EAs and any others connected with buying and selling - desperation

Also, I think the Irish market should properly be split into many markets as the rate of change varies across the country. In places where there have been large-scale job losses, I think we will see desperation quite quickly across all categories.

I think buyers everywhere are still just in hope, as the bubble has gone on so long they can’t quite believe that it will end/is actually ending.

From my discussions with friends, aquaintances etc we are past denial now and into the fear phase. I think we may move into panic quite quickly judging by what I have heard from some quarters :open_mouth:

We’re in the fear stage IMHO. But only just I think. I still think that there is substantially more fear and loathing to develop.
I think that this winter ahead will help a lot of that to grow.

Significantly with announcements from Mary Harney about taking away the promised flu vaccine, mentioned redundancies within the HSE, Brian announcing a pulled in budget but without telling anyone about it, I believe that all of this will be like the pouring of salt on the wounds of those hurting the most. It’s a desperate but not unexpected outcome that these crowd of useless people are going to make a mess of things.

I see winter of discontent.

I see no hope of them doing anything of the thousands of good things that they could do to get this country back on its feet.

I see them borrowing to fund their developer friends. Just more salt for more wounds. It will just drag out the pain and misery.

Owner Occupiers with little to lose - fear
“Investors” out on a limb - desperation bordering on panic.

As eddie hobbs put it,the market has yet to capitulate.

As an aside, new 1 bed apartments for sale in bettytown for €125,000 ,i hear 20 or so were snapped up in the first weekend,some developers are starting to get it.

Fear for me. Denial has been eaten away by mainstream media attention to the fact that prices are falling and maybe this isn’t a bad thing. Joe Public is as likely to talk about how the slump “was always going to happen” as how property is a good bet. Sure, some people are still in Denial, but then they always will be. The main opposition party is calling for no intervention and expecting the falls to continue. The soft landing myth is dead.

We’ve all discussed how there’s no point trying to call a bottom, but I’m settled in for the long haul.

I’d say there’s 24-36 months to go before we hit bottom. Fear at present.

Which stage was revulsion of anything property related a symptom of, as listening to the radio shows yesterday it seems to be beginning.

I’ve reluctantly voted fear for the first time. Although I have spent some time engaged in rather frank discussions with people in pubs recently who are still firmly rooted in denial.

There is just no talking to them. The property bubble ‘true believers’ are the biggest cult the country has ever spawned imho.

Fuck politics and religion, property and the economy are the real ‘no go’ areas in Irish conversation at the moment if you want to avoid a scene.

Im of the same opinion as others in that different people are at different stages in the cycle. We had friends in over the weekend who sold their house over a year ago bought one immediately that suited their needs and they are still in denial, as one said “I dont see any signs of recession”.

On the other hand I know people who bought in the last year now looking for Payment protection policies and that denotes fear and Im sure there are people who are struggling to pay mortgages where interest rates are killing them who have had enough which denotes moving to panic.

So I think the vast majority have not yet reached Fear but there are some further advanced and some following It all depends on how they are financially, if they can make mortgage payments and maintain their standard of living then they are ok even if they are not able to save much money. On the other hand if they are borrowing to pay the mortgage or using the credit card for same then they are in serious trouble.

So I’ll pick a mid-point, Fear.

Just to make a distinction here, but the property market is different to the economy in the context of this question.

Denial isn’t denying a recession in the economy, denial is expecting a soft landing in the property market. I think we’re well and truly past that point now.

Definitely fear for me, with fear wrt the general economy rapidly catching up.