Q4 2009 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions

Public Emotional response to house market

  • Optimism
  • Excitement
  • Thrill
  • Euphoria
  • Anxiety
  • Denial
  • Fear
  • Desperation
  • Panic
  • Capitulation
  • Despondency
  • Depression
  • Hope
  • Relief

0 voters

Previous polls: September 2007 | January 2008 | April 2008 | July 2008 | September 2008 | January 2009 | April 2009 | July 2009

Based on general conversations with your friends, colleagues, or intuition what do you reckon the public mood towards the house market is?

So far, the graphs progression has been spot-on.

Fear with a foot into desperation.

Well, I just learned that a friend of a friend and his girlfriend just shelled out a princely sum for a four bed semi-d in south Dublin. Neither are in particularly stable jobs.I assume they would have consulted family and friends and received their blessing, and Im guessing in the case of family, financial support.People are still buying property.

Make of that what you will.

Still denial in Dunshaughlin. 4 beds at 400k plus, new addition this morning in excess of 400k…

+1 but only a tiptoe

is september not q3 ( cough)

Denial — touching fear…

Asking prices still too high…

Politician telling us the housing mkt is recovering.

Lenihan telling us NAMA is to put a floor under housing…

Except in Carrolls Developments. You cant have a floor in those. They cost xtra. :nin

Denial (=sure won’t it all be grand) is a national characteristic and so is (and will be) the stickiest phase of the cycle.

Yep, it’s going to be a Menolly Homes floor though.

Put in that context I think it’s denial with a touch of optimism. People would rather believe this (courtesy of finnegag over on another topic)

I’m just “following orders” boss!

The previous Q’s have set the template - I can but follow!

The 2 Brians have decided that we cant afford December this year so it , along with all of the joviality and extra spending that goes on have been cancelled.

Hence the goal posts on the q`s have changed.

Didnt you get the memo?

This sounds like exactly what the NAMA guy from la sang jones was saying.

if this is the basis nama will be making it’s valuation then it’s the japanese route for us.
They are making future predictions based upon the shape of a graph of previous market behaviour rather than on an examination of the actual market or the level of overvaluation at the peak or any external conditions.

the foolhardy faith based belief that because markets have always recovered in the past they will do so within 7 years in the future is laughable when you look at the value of irish homes in comparison to european ones, our lack of control over interest rates, unemployment, the oversupply.

The scale of this bubble goes way beyond what we have seen in this country or anywhere else other than japan. Nama is in effect an attempt to do a semi japan and have a write down lite which will in effect have the same impact as the japanese scenario but leave Irish taxpayers on the hook.

We need to take as much of the writedown as possible as quickly as possible to allow capital start flowing back in and to restore competitiveness for new firms.

these guys just aren’t looking at the problem realistically they are still in denial
which will lead to a massive flow of money from the tax payer to the bankers bondholders and property developers

exactly what FF want.

Also Weeks are now 8 days long thus reducing per week welfare payments per year. The new day is called Namasday.

Majority are firmly in denial.

I think FEAR is now predominant, much of this is of the silent variety as it should be until desperation kicks in, the current FEAR is that the house of cards is now apparent and the shaky false foundation of NAMA may not hold for long. The transition from fear to desperation is sudden and very fluid, just look at Mexico’s tequila crisis, Argentina’s currency board at the same time, The Aisa crisis, etc… All went from fear to desperation in weeks and the way NAMA is developing it is very possible to be a quick IMO.

I think that NAMA is an act of desperation, and that we are slowly entering that phase.

It enters me straight into the depression phase. :cry: