Q4 2010 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions

Public Emotional response to house market

  • Optimism
  • Excitement
  • Thrill
  • Euphoria
  • Anxiety
  • Denial
  • Fear
  • Desperation
  • Panic
  • Capitulation
  • Despondency
  • Depression
  • Hope
  • Relief

0 voters

Previous polls: September 2007 | January 2008 | April 2008 | July 2008 | September 2008 | January 2009 | April 2009 | July 2009 | September 2009 | January 2010 | April 2010 | July 2010

Based on general conversations with your friends, colleagues, or intuition what do you reckon the public mood towards the house market is?

Somewhere between denial and fear. I went for fear.

I think Denial is still there, though not so much in the “this actually isn’t happening”, as “yeah so it happened, but everything will be ok again soon now”.

You probably should have plumped for hope so!

We didn’t go through any of the other stages though…

Capitulation, panic, desperation… I have seen nothing to suggest this on a large scale.

Middle Class and retired…Denial
Middle Class and 40 something with two mortgages and childrem at school of college …Fear
Middle Class and as above plus just been handed redundancy …Desperation

Now to be honest it could be any class if there is such a thing nowadays but above is how I see it. Quite simply depending on your financial circumstances determines where you are on the cycle but from an overall perspective the more unemployment and the more bad news the further along the cycle we move, the problem will be if we get stuck at the bottom of it and for how long? :open_mouth:

Denial is undergoing a dead cat bounce…

edit: though I accept what spqr is saying.

Q4 already???
I must have slept through September

History states September is Q4.

So one must blindly follow!

Denial is undergoing a dead cat bounce…+1

Denial has been around far longer than most of us would have expected.
I think the very good summer we’ve had this year maybe added to this
but when the short dark(4:30) winter days start to close in we might finally move on to fear.
I remember thinking back in 2006 when the debt fueled psychosis was at it peek that the
six straight weeks of sunshine and best summer on record were adding to the elation.

They say people who suffer from S.A.D. (depression due to lack of sunlight, vitamin D)
should not make life changing decisions during the winter months,
there should be a similar warning when it comes to buying property during the long giddy
days of summer, though it is great for the VIs rounding up the last few suckers.

Denial. When you bring the subject up, people just don’t want to talk about. It doesn’t help that the Irish media are doing their best to distract everyone from what is going on. I don’t really care that Clowen is smoking in Croke Park but I do care that he has sold my future, and that of my children, down the swanee. IMHO, it’ll take a seismic shock to jolt the Irish out of Denial. We’re slow to face up to reality and very easily distracted by trivial nonsense. Long way to go for the market and even longer way to go for market emotion.

I think Ireland has managed to add another emotion to cycle; Confusion.

People don’t know what the fuck to do; so their sticking their heads in the sand, & praying to Jeebus

who’s in denial?? Everyone has well and truely accepted we’ve had a severe recession and things aren’t getting any better…things will turn around, but it will take some time. I think people have now acceptedd how screwed this country is and aren’t waiting on a miracle anymore

or am i in denial?? :slight_smile:

Have you looked at the Asking price of a modest 3-Bedroom house in Roscommon lately ?

Or .5 of an acre with a vague possibility of PP within 30 miles of O’Connell Street ?

Fear …Personally feel that joe public is beginning (and i mean just beginning) to look at property in terms of affordability …ie relative to actual income. Having a jumbo mortgage now is like carrying a sandwich board with I f**CKED UP BIG STYLE on it. Nobody wants them even if the banks would give them and the people who have been trying to sell for the last two years are starting to realise this. Roll on Desperation.

I voted for fear last time out.

I have reverted to denial this time.

We may pay for all this expensive dilly-dallying in denial with a white-knuckle ride through the rest of the cycle.

I think property prices are still nuts but I feel that’s a minority view amongst the folk I knock around with.

I therefore conclude that sellers are still in denial as are the broad mass of the Irish public. My own emotion is a mix of impatience, annoyance and frustration.

Looking at my last few votes, there’s been no consistency. I’ve vacilated from denial to fear and back again. Now I’m back to fear. I think the latest slew of bad news has put the frightners on a lot of people. Although their private fear is overtaken by their massive public denial.

I think that the definition of denial/ fear / desperation / panic needs to be made very clear.
After 3 years with drops of 35-50% how can anyone still be in denial?

I guess because while people understand that other people’s properties have dropped by 35-50%, theirs haven’t dropped at all. It’s really amazing. Don’t forget that it’s the market cycle of emotions, not where you think we should be on the market curve i.e. it could be that the emotions corresponding to different stages are wrong.


It is like the Heisenberg uncertainty principle of the property market
The price only drops if you try to sell