Q4 2010 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions

I’ve been voting denial the last couple of times. This time round, fear. I think people are beginning to wonder, and come out with phrases like “it can’t drop much further”. Ordinarily I’d class this as denial, but its the tone and how its said.

Its like that faint whiff of a shitty nappy… denial, no its not… then the realisation that the sucker is fully loaded.

Still denial I think. Out of the people I know, those who are relatively unscathed (including those who have taken pay cuts and lost jobs but are managing) by the current situation seem to fully accept just how fucked up things are. But those who are in trouble are still clinging to denial.

I think we’re out of denial of the property bubble bursting but still in denial as to its impact on the general economy. Too much talk of it all picking up again once the global scene improves.

When the majority realise that the housing bubble had become the economy, then things will change rapidly; double whammy.

My first vote for Fear. A few things:

Isabel Morton has turned
boards.ie has turned
I think finally the Anglo costs and consequences are a real national debate
As is the difficulty of getting a mortgage - there is now widespread knowledge about this
Time is passing. People are losing jobs and seeing there aren’t new ones. Those in arrears are getting more in arrears. I think the simple passage of time is squeezing Denial out of people.

I really notice that, bubblistas are really getting slapped down from all directions now.

Is it possible to add a new emotion? Where would “Staggeringly Unbelieveable Stupidity” fit into this graph? My brother just announced that he wants to buy a house. He has no savings but he is a new generation of Canny. He’s going to offer 5% below the asking price. Similar houses in our town are asking about 20-30% less. I went blue in the face trying to convince him otherwise and resorted to begging. Then my father piped in, saying “You’re not going to get a house for free!” At that point I stopped talking and left. I already have a brother who bought nearly at the top of the boom in 2005. His house has roughly halved in value, with probably more to go, and he is visibly traumatised by his decision to buy. Now brother No:2 can’t wait to get on the property ladder. This doesn’t qualify as denial and the only phrase I can think of is “Stupid beyond belief”. I’m not going to waste any more time or energy trying to talk brother No:2 out of this. But I will say “I told you so”, when it all goes pear-shaped. TBH, he won’t get a mortgage anyway. His only saving grace.

Good analysis cb. Good luck on Sunday.


Also, given the amount of properties that haven’t dropped, I can only assume that they are not really for sale but the owners just want to tell the world how much their houses are worth in a bizzare and expensive self-reaffirmation exercise.

Bloody Cats! C’mon Tipp.

I too voted Fear last time (I think) but have now gone back to Denial as the feeling of the most common affect.

It is one sad country that I live in. Really so.

Weve spent the year watching the Anglo situation get worse and worse and listened to all the gloom on the news but each time you hear these things you dont get a pay cut or a tax increase. So long as you are employed things stay roughly the same so theres no change to your emotion towards the housing market. If the budget brought cuts and tax increases on the scale they actually should be then there would be a swift and dramatic change.
Denial is a much more comfortable place than fear, Id say that stage would last longer than the others

Excellent summary !

I think that people can only take onboard a certain amount emotionally; & this results in the people who are most exposed, only being able to take on a small amount, because to fully admit their situation would be devastating. But people who aren’t badly exposed can be more honest with themselves.

Very much fear at this stage. We even had Jimbo on Drivetime this evening reacting to Clowens description of the bond markets this week as just the ebb and flow as total bullshit.
The ordinary punter now realises the country is in serious trouble and is dreading the upcoming budgets.

Fear has reared it’s ugly head, no doubt about it.

Nah, still an ocean of Denial out there. Had an argument with a dear friend from Dublin at the weekend who could have stood in for Joe Duffy - Lendahand is a lovely fella, it’s all the fault of Lehmans/the Blueshirts, if only them auld doomers would go and kill themselves, hard decisions, blah blah blah blah. Absolutely refused to believe that most of our problems were home grown, or even that there had been a property bubble in the first place. This from someone in their mid 20s whose family were ordinary people with just the one house in Tallaght, no reason to have to believe the hype. I can at least understand the mental processes behind someone up to their ears in a €800K mortgage who has lost their job being in complete denial, facing up to the truth must be a terrifying prospect, but really there’s no excuse for the attitude of people like my friend. But what can ye do, there’s no talking to them.

The only people I ever meet who actually see things as they really are, are the very same people who saw things as they were all through the bubble. Everyone else still has their heads firmly up their holes. They’ve learned nothing and are all still living in a fantasy world. Unbelievable the guff I hear from friends in Dublin and Galway.

Do any of the 30 people who voted Denial think things have changed since they voted? It was only a few weeks ago, but events are moving at breakneck pace.

I voted denial…but fear is here

Ditto. Morgan Kelly article has been the tipping point for many, and I for one welcome it. Reality time.

+1. MK article definitely a bolt up the backside for some.