Q4 2011 survey of Irish Market - Market cycle of emotions

Public Emotional response to house market

  • Optimism
  • Excitement
  • Thrill
  • Euphoria
  • Anxiety
  • Denial
  • Fear
  • Desperation
  • Panic
  • Capitulation
  • Despondency
  • Depression
  • Hope
  • Relief

0 voters

Previous polls: September 2007 | January 2008 | April 2008 | July 2008 | September 2008 | January 2009 | April 2009 | July 2009 | September 2009 | January 2010 | April 2010 | July 2010 | September 2010 | January 2011 | April 2011 | July 2011

Based on general conversations with your friends, colleagues, or intuition what do you reckon the public mood towards the house market is?

Denial

I think I put Fear last time but after recent chats with family re execution of a will, a chat in the park with two parents and a chat with a work colligue I revise my opinion backwards to Denial.

Not denial that prices are falling that’s very much accepted but there is a feeling we are at the bottom now and " how could they get much lower. The relles want to keep the house rent it out and sell it for a profit in a few years time when the Market has recovered. There is disbelief when I suggested that we would not see the bottom until circa 2013.

Capitulation.

I find that an increasing number of people realize that prices are continuing to drop, and will do for some time. People have given up hope that it is only a glitch, or temporary. A feeling that ‘we are so deep in negative equity, sure what difference does a little more make’.

Maybe it is the surroundings that I’m in that have changed, but I just don’t hear too many people talking about it as much anymore. This is with people that I know and interact with personally, or on the Radio etc. The conversation seems to have changed. For most of the last decade the conversation everywhere was property: prices only ever go up, bought a brilliant place, yak yak… and then followed by sob, sob… for years. It seems to have changed.

With headlines like Fall in house prices accelerates it has to be capitulation. I don’t think there is much room for denial they see what the Allsop auctions are making and are pricing accordingly if they must sell. If you look at the trend in daftwatchit appears to be static, there really is no market for the property at the asking prices sought.

I guess I do agree with you BoyRacer it just feels like we skipped Desperation and Panic

I went for Denial not in the sence that people don’t beleve the market is falling but I think despite the headlines I think that there is a lot of denial that it’s going to fall further.

Certainly pockets of panic in Dublin. Denial prevails outside Dublin. You can see this also in the stock levels by county on the front page of Daft, but nothing new in this.

Defo think we are in capitulation. We seem to have skipped panic and desperation, no surprise though with Rent Allowance and NAMA propping things up.

Panic.

Wouldn’t capitulation involve actual events of people capitulating, and the resulting increase of reasonably priced property on daft? I’m still not seeing much of that. Panic I think, maybe, but the kind of panic that one has before anything is done. The headless chicken type of panic.

Somewhere between denial and fear. I picked denial.

Another budget or two may move it along.

Though I suspect in terms of the group of the population who are selling property the vast vast majority are in denial.

And why shouldn’t they be? Various state supports in place to prop everything up as best it can, and enough people out there with the means for a drip feed of sales means one can cling to the belief for a little longer. Of perhaps a lot longer.

when you don’t have bank repossessing houses and nama in place the market will take a long time to bottom out, everything from denial to depression out there.

Agree with Johnny’s point above. When you want to believe the house you are selling is still worth X and you look at Daft and find all of the Nama stuff asking X, why would you settle for Y. Granted your house would never sell for X but you don’t want to be that person who held on too long and may risk even worse than financial loss…loss of membership of the canny society.

I went for capitulation too and agree with the bit about skipping panic and desperation. I suppose the whole contrived nature of the unwinding might have something to do with that. I sense capitulation, but in resigned sort of way. A switch was flicked sometime this year with the general public. Not sure if it was Allsop or what, but something changed.

Wouldn’t surprise me if we skipped despondency and depression too and decided to linger in capitulation for a while then jump straight to hope in about 18 months time.

My last 6 votes:

Denial
Denial
Denial
Denial
Fear
Denial

This time, I’m moving on to Fear for keeps, having been forced to retreat back to Denial in Summer following a Trichetesque jumping of the gun on to Fear last Spring.

I see precious little Desperation or Panic with respect to property and property prices. When it comes to joblessness, emigration, falling incomes and so forth, plenty of desperation and panic. But gaffs? Not yet, but the Fear is definitely more palpable now.

I doubt I’ll move beyond Fear for several quarters.

I Selected denial - based on recent, multiple, contacts with EAs and challenging asking prices they were quoting.
Still being told " they won’t sell for less than X" even when no offers - and I’m thinking X minus 30 to 40%!!
Other common theme I’ve come accross is " it’s with the bank now but they won’t accept anything close to your offer"
So if fear and panic are part of a well recognised response, they have not been ’ skipped’ , as some suggest - they just haven’t happened yet.
I think the ’ powers that be’ continue to try to massage the notion that the next boom is just around the corner and this simply delays the inevitable. BD

Such a mix in seller emotions. One told me he took his house of the market because the estate agent told them it would only make X and they would not sell it for less than X+80k - going to wait it out until things improve. Another sold for 250k under asking and told me they would have taken 100k less. So not sure what to vote this time.

It’s mad, it has gone so far beyond property at this point. Now it’s not just a matter even of ‘Will I lose money if I buy now, and be in Neg Equity?’

It’s become more of a 'Will I want to emigrate and be anchored with a place here? Will I be unemployed or have such a reduced wage (public and private sectors) that I won’t be able to eat and meet the monthly repayments? Will we not buy and keep whatever cash we have in accounts and then find the Euro is gone and we have Irish Rubels and hey, a house would be better…"

It’s not surprising that the emotions end of it is so confused. It’s like trying to rate your emotions about one symptom when suffering from a horrendous illness that ravages your entire body

Excellent observation. I go through most of those questions once a week.

I have gone for Denial yet again. Based on the same conversations I’ve had with friends and work-mates for the last three years.

https://www.irvinehousingblog.com/images/uploads/01%202011%2009%20Posts/forsaken_housing.jpg
Society greatly benefits from the housing bust → irvinehousingblog.com/blog/c … sing-bust/

*HELOC = home equity line of credit (mortgage equity withdrawal on this side of the pond)