Q4 GDP down 7.5% year on year

[code]Ireland Fourth Quarter GDP: Summary (Table) Page 1/

By Mark Evans
March 26 (Bloomberg) – Following is a summary of the fourth quarter
GDP for Ireland from the Central Statistics Office in Dublin:
*T

                           4Q      3Q      2Q      1Q      4Q      3Q
                         2008    2008    2008    2008    2007    2007

==============================================================================
-------------- YoY Percentage Changes --------------
GDP -7.5% 0.3% -0.7% -1.2% 5.5% 4.0%
GNP -6.7% -4.6% -2.1% 1.2% 2.3% 5.5%
GDP at Constant
Factor Cost -6.8% 1.5% 0.3% -0.8% 6.5% 4.7%
------ Sector of Origin YoY Percentage Changes -----
Agriculture etc. -5.4% 0.1% 0.8% 4.3% 8.8% 1.2%
Industry -12.5% -1.8% 1.4% -4.3% 7.5% 6.9%
Transport etc. -8.3% -6.2% -4.7% -0.7% 3.9% 5.9%
Defense etc. 1.0% 1.6% 3.3% 2.8% 2.6% 2.7%
Other Services -2.2% 1.9% 1.5% 4.8% 4.8% 6.7%
Taxes less subsidies -12.5% -8.2% -8.1% -3.7% -1.2% -0.7%
Personal consumption -4.0% -1.1% -1.4% 3.6% 5.4% 7.0%
Net goods and services 0.5% 1.2% 3.3% 3.5% 4.9% 5.4%
Capital formation -30.6% -13.2% -19.3% -17.1% -7.2% -6.5%
Exports -4.9% 0.6% 2.5% 0.5% 8.2% 4.1%
Imports -10.4% -6.0% -1.2% 0.5% 3.7% 4.9%
------------- Level (Millions of Euros) ------------
GDP 43,786 46,204 46,767 46,959 47,327 46,053
GNP 37,633 37,555 38,460 40,241 40,333 39,381
GDP at Constant
Factor Cost 38,814 41,033 41,779 41,511 41,647 40,421
---- Sector of Origin Level (Millions of Euros) ----
Agriculture etc. 609 845 1,368 1,062 643 844
Industry 12,422 13,346 14,473 14,079 14,189 13,590
Transport etc. 6,216 6,347 6,235 6,593 6,782 6,766
Defense etc. 1,428 1,449 1,426 1,345 1,415 1,425
Other Services 18,482 19,058 18,599 19,155 18,890 18,699
Taxes less subsidies 4,971 5,172 4,987 5,448 5,681 5,632
Personal consumption 22,575 21,595 21,478 22,621 23,520 21,839
Net goods and services 6,609 6,588 6,540 6,573 6,573 6,509
Capital formation 7,860 9,662 9,476 11,601 11,331 11,133
Value of changes stocks -256 163 478 44 609 -444
Exports 37,321 37,106 39,163 37,124 39,249 36,873
Imports -30,666 -28,922 -30,690 -31,727 -34,227 -30,761
NFI from Rest of World -6,152 -8,649 -8,307 -6,718 -6,995 -6,672

Note: Data is chain linked.
Agriculture etc. consists of agriculture, forestry and fishing.
Transport etc. consists of distribution, transport and communications.
Defense etc. consists of defence and public administration.
Other services include rent.
NFI stands for Net Factor Income.
Source: Central Statistics Office
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So if you define a depression of a drop of GDP of 10% or more. We might allready have reached that point if you include the fall in the first 3 months of this year.

what the hell is ‘Defense etc’?

(our sole expanding sector)

Dem lads selling de choppers to the Iranians is it?!? :smiling_imp:

cso.ie/releasespublications/ … nt/qna.pdf
The seasonally adjusted QoQ figure is -7.1% for GDP.

Um, my methodological underpinning is, as you all know by now, extremely suspect, but if we were to express that QoQ figure the way the Americans and Japanese do as a SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) would that not mean Ireland’s SAAR is -28.4%?

Eh, um, er, please tell me I’m wrong…

It’s what most of the population are sitting on 8)

I think, although I am probably totally wrong here, that Ireland has a number of software companies that focus on missile guidance systems and that might be what the defence component is.

i think US stats would somehow contrive to show that as growth of 10% with 0% inflation :laughing:

And everything I see and observe around me says that the economy has still a long way to fall yet. The CSO figures are a seriously lagging indicator as to how bad things are about to get. It also looks as if the government have had a sneak preview of the March exchequer returns and they are bloody awful!

Govt. boosting armed forces in expectation of blood on the streets?

These are truly shocking figures.

I was forecasting a peak to trough fall in GDP of about 12% but we could be looking at something much worse. Is a 20% fall in GDP possible?

What was the 2008 GDP fall? -2.3%?

2009 is the real year. We’re going back to pre 2005, it’s just a question of how far back…

US GDP fell 6.3% in Q4 so Ireland is in good company with a fall of 7.5%

Um, but isn’t this the annualised rate for US GDP decline (i.e. the QoQ rate x4) - see my post above.

Wonder what this does to our “household debt-to-GDP” ratio, I know we were the highest in the euro area before in the Central Bank’s report, but just hope Latvia has not beaten us to first place.

nope look here:

independent.ie/national-news … 20350.html

Banque National de Paris comments

Should the seasonally adjusted figure be less than the basic figure? Q4 would be a busy time in economic terms what with christmas & end of year etc.

€46,204m was the GDP in Q3 08, €43,786m in Q4 08. So a drop of €2,148 from Q3 to Q4. Multiplied by 4 and taken as a percentage of Q3, it is 20.9%.

I’m not sure this is right either, but I think this is the non seasonally adjusted annual rate (i.e. how much GDP would contract if it did so at the same pace as it did between Q3 & Q4 2008). Taking a small adjustment down for seasonal variations, I’d say in the 18-20% area. However, this doesn’t take into account the bad news during this period. On the basis that while there is more bad news to come, it will not be as bad as the bad news last year, the actual drop by end of 2009 could well be a lot less but still in the region of 12-15%.

Then again, I could also be talking out my ass. I hope we’re both wrong.

Yup. The reported US GDP figure is nearly always an annualised rate, divide by 4 to get their Q4 GDP drop which is 1.575%.