Ratings agency predicts further 20% fall in Irish residentia

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But, but, but … pent up demand … South County Dublin … green shoots.

Fucking clueless Fitch fuckers, these people couldn’t…

…oh, wait. I agree with them.

Way to go Fitch!

Seriously though, their outlook rhymes with my own, amateur prognosis.

Look on the bright side, when you are valuing your property take 20% of the last available prices from the database, use the Fitch report to back you up for the audit.

:smiley:

Time frame?

I predict that prices will rise 400%*.

(*over the next 200 years)

I have to agree.

That does not mean I don’t see some value at the minute.

Having said that I am looking at 500-700k houses - I would not be too upset if I burned 100k now. It is not the bad old days of lossing 400k on an apartment or 700k on a house.

Effectively the bottom could be just old the stamp duty rate away…I would be happy with that.

It’s well for you not bothered about the 100k, but it’s not just that is it? It’s 100k + 5% APR over 25 (30?) years, which is more like 175k. And, even if you knock off the 20k you’d spend renting for another year it’s still a whole lot of cheddar.

I am just saying it is a number most people can afford to drop and not get too upset about (in the context of a long term property purchase). Compared to what others have dropped I would call that a small premium for the stability of getting into my home.

You can’t put any investment return on to the 100k. People have money in bank accounts and Bunds that are effectively losing money in real terms. People have higher returns in Irish banks and may find that they are turned into Celtic Banana Dollars in the near future.

You MAY get 5% APR but you can’t count on it

I’m not talking about 100k invested. I’m saying that if Cheeky Offer is happy to accept a potential drop of 100k (over the next year or so) in the price of a property to buy it now the he needs to consider that it’s not just that - he’ll also be paying mortgage interest on that 100k which will add another 75k or so over the lifetime of a mortgage.

You mean the banks home yeah? :smiley:

You are all assuming I need a mortgage…

I’m sure this point has been made before but here goes…

If anyone buys the exact house they want right at the bottom of the current cycle they will be very lucky indeed

If the right house comes up it might’ve worth buying even if you think prices have a bit further to fall because if you wait and indeed there are further falls the house you want may not be available at that time.

Sure prices may fall further (I’m certain nationally they will) but in certain areas they may not fall that much more and the percentages were talking about might be equal to those youd see due to variations in garden size or orientation or the local variation in stock and bidders at the time you purchase.

Of course.

Awww ‘the one’ … how romantic :unamused:

My view is more along the lines of the ‘plenty of fish’ philosophy. :stuck_out_tongue:

If you live anywhere between Kilcock and Oranmore then you are of course entirely correct. :slight_smile:

Try parts of scd and there’s fewer fish in the pond

Try parts of scd and there’s fewer fish in the pond/quote

I always thou ght that there is plenty of fish in the sea. Then i lived in a bungalow on land and loved it to bits, would have killed to buy it. I bid on a bungalow in foxrock on a bit of land in the summer and lost it… i was quite upset. Then i fell in love with another bungalow with nice garden in D4… lost it and i was quite upset. Then i moved into another rental, a 3 storey house… nicest and most comfortable place i’ve ever lived in. It is basking in the sun in the morninga even in the winter due to garden being in the perfect orientation… and i can’t even remember any of the other houses. Can’t see myself ever living anywhre else but i am certain that one day i’ll fnd a house that i like more than this one. So yes, there is always plenty of fish in the sea, this coming from someone looking to buy a 200sq m+ with a nice garden in a nice area of ScD.

These ‘parts of SCD’ are at most 10% of the national stock and are not nationally statistically significant. It is entirely possible for SCD prices to rise while National Prices drop 20% overall as posited by Fitch et al.

Furthermore most of the state is a cash only market, unsupported by lending from the banking system, and entirely vulnerable to a 20%+ fall to balance out SCD froth.

And don’t forget the little caveat Fitch have added under the very first graph in their report:

So what they’re actually saying is that they expect prices to fall but they might not

namawinelake.files.wordpress.com … /fitch.pdf