Realistic chances of Ireland Inc defaulting ?

A number of people in various threads have mentioned the possibility of Ireland defaulting in the next few years.

What are the realistic chances of this occuring?
Will we be forced out of the Euro?
Will peoples savings be plundered and what can people do to prevent this?

My own opinion is that we are in dire straits and Nama will sink us. After that i aint got a clue, but i have a bad feeling in the pit of my stomach :frowning:

The British were propped up in the 70’s (to the tune of 6bn, I think) by the IMF. It wouldn’t be the end of the world. Won’t happen to us cos we’re in the EU and the EU will sort us out before anybody else.

i cant see the germans bailing us out especially when they have much bigger fish to worry about like Spain and Italy. and what do we mean by bailing us out anyway , lending us € that we cant repay?

Default is at this stage actually the least-worst option :open_mouth:

It’ll bring an end to this farce and offers some slight chance of a good flush out of the rotten clique of corrupt morons at the top of this failed society.

As to when: rationally it should probably already have happened, but the international money markets can’t quite bring themselves to believe that yeah, Cowen and Lenny really are the dumb inbred hick, incompetent, third-rate shysters and con-artists that they appear to be, or that such people really are in charge of an alleged first-world democracy.

When it sinks in, the credit will dry up overnight and the whole sorry trainwreck will hit the buffers hard.

There are two chances of Ireland defaulting - none and fuck all! We are a pimple on the arse of Europe. Nobody gives a shit about us except to consider us a nuisance. But they care about the Euro, and a default by Ireland would mean, at the very least, a two tier Euro - something that the Germans would not accept.

The problem is not with default, as far as I can see, the problem is with the government not being able to raise further money. That’s where the IMF come in. As long as the confidence of the bond markets is maintained all will be fine, but I can’t see that confidence being maintained. NAMA is already seen as a weight of debt on the national debt. Other strokes will come home to roost.

When interests rates start to go up our problems are going to get a lot worse as more people are gonna find it very difficult to repay debts.

As we can’t devalue to make ourselves competitive we could end up in a vicious circle of high unemployment and little control over our own destiny.During the boom we could have done with being able to increase interest rates as the low rates were fuelling the bubble. Now the reverse could happen. High rates fuelling our implosion.

Is it plausible that the EU will say to us “look lads leave the euro so you can devalue your currency and get yourselves back on yer feet and when you do you can rejoin” knowing full well we never will. Some commentators are already calling for this (McWilliams i believe). If that happens then we are truely in trouble as FF will be charge of our destiny (fianna fail literal translation is Soldiers of Destiny…scary aint it)

I don’t see it as likely. Our debts are denominated in euro. We would be as unable to pay our debts in a devalued currency as we would in euros. A currency change would be a de-facto default. It would be much simpler to just default.


At the current rate of borrowing (€20 Bn a year) we have, depending on who you talk to, around two years of oxygen left. Then it’s either IMF or, more likely in my opinion, some sort of EU bailout that will see the country become (fiscally at least) a satellite state of Brussels - time for some serious tax harmonisation. Ireland may well be a dry-run for Spain, which will cost the EU a lot more. But, politically at least, many Euro politicians will welcome this as it centralises power further and hastens the development of the United States of Europe, which we all know is the goal.

I hope so.

There will not be a ‘bailout’ as such. But they will, just like the IMF, lend us money on condition that we cut public sector pay, numbers, and social welfare by 25-30% as well as increase taxation, such as a property tax, cutting the tax free allowances and of course increasing Corporation Tax closer to a European average. Those will be the conditions attached to extending a line of credit.


Not the corporation tax! You can take everything but never touch our vaunted corporation tax rate!

Future last words of a diehard gobshite in 2012
“Ah sure say nuttin, we’ll be grand, wait n see sure they wouldnt do us over after us voting in de lisbon ting an all.
Or would they? Ah jaysus we’re fecked altogether now lads is there no way out, how about applying to the US to become the 53rd state or the vatican for a dig out, ah sure they would’nt give you band aid.
I know We’ll bring back the punt an allign it wit sterling. Wha dya mean its fecked as well… Ah shite” XX

I think the begger-thy-neighbour corporation tax wheeze is almost at an end. It was never going to be long term sustainable anyway, but it’s a crying shame we didn’t use the windfall to build something more durable than ghost estates in Leitrim.

What are the realistic chances of this occuring?
Either the banks default or we do IMHO.

Will we be forced out of the Euro?
Depends on the chances of default and who’s doing the forcing.
If we let the banks go and set up new ones then the government can concentrate on the budget deficit
and we might pull through. Not likely though. The Germans will only keep us going for so long.
When their politicians start losing seats because taxpayers are tired of paying for failed states in Europe
then out we go.

Will peoples savings be plundered and what can people do to prevent this?
Not plundered, devalued.

If the Govt want to preserve the CT rate (which has created a lot of employment in Ireland) then it would be better off dealing with the IMF as opposed to the EU/ECB. Would we have the choice?


What part of the words common market do you not understand?

The IMF is a complete non runner, as is defaulting, so can people stop throwing up this lazy canard!

This is completely new territory for the Euro, ffs and the fucking rules will be made up as they/we go along. Sure I accept/expect that the EU/ECB would be the more likely option. I’m not so sure the IMf is a non runner. We’re still a sovereign state, so surely we could (if we wanted) approach the IMF instead, no?

Of course.

But there is no need.

No need because everyting’s ok or no need because we have the ECB to look after us? Problem (if you view it as such) with the ECB/EU is that tax harmonisation will be a racing certainty.