Recession 2020/21


#1

So it’s looking increasingly likely that Coronavirus (and Brexit) will cause a recession in the coming year in Ireland and indeed many other countries.

Our double Irish scheme also closes in 2020 so CT may also be down partly for that.

It may be 2021 before we see it in the figures.

With our debt from the 2008 recession still unpaid (we’re paying the interest only) and ECB rates at 0% or negative, what exactly can be done to stimulate the Irish and EU economies going forward?


#2

QE that puts money into ordinary punters hands - let’s have some real inflation. I know this is just another type of wealth transfer but it’s the one we needed 10 years ago.

Cut VAT, PAYE and fund the shortfall with borrowing for 2-3 years.
Increase SW - anyone who knows me knows I would normally froth at the mouth if someone else suggested it.

The debt burden needs to be reduced by inflating everything else.


#3

Good idea, it’s better to use money as an economic lubricant instead of leaving it to pool in the sump of the elite.


#4

A company in a 5 storey building will quickly realise that they can operate fine when they bring their staff in one day a week. So they only need one storey.

All those cranes building offices look dumb to me now. Get those people building homes.


#5

My employer told everybody across the globe to take the hardware home if they have space if not, try to connect from home to their setups in the lab. No dates for return…

Polish govt introduced a state where they can prohibit people from leaving homes at any time in any region.

Stocks are diving… but there is no end to it.
Imgur


#6

Good luck mightyz


#7

100%


#8


Nose dive continues after FED emergency announcement on Sunday.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart


#9

Doesn’t look as bad if you use the log scale :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:
Anyway only back to 2017 levels, more likely not it will be back up to last month’s levels in about a years time.


#10

ye, plenty of space for correction.


#11

First major EU response to fend off the incoming recession


#12

Fuck… Hyperinflation and savings raid is coming this year.
Damn, just when I settle down in my first owned apartment :smiley:


#13

That’s when you want to have loads of debt to inflate away. It’s only if you have a ton of savings that you need to worry.


#14

I will stick my neck out and say I don’t see inflation.


#15

I could repay my mortgage in half today probably, but not sure about next 24 months, so I hoard cash for longer and observe ;).

I just saw polish PM on CNN, talking about polish budget stimulus, he said there is more coming from EU and he is happy about what was announced today! He is ex banker so, you know - friends first :wink:

btw… I was hoping for some tax reductions for business, but almost forgot to pay last month tax with deadline tomorrow :smiley:


#16

Totally agree. What has any government actually done so far? Most of the UK announcements to help businesses are repayable loans. The ECB announcement is just more of the same failed policy of bond and asset purchases, same as the US. That’s just a continued excuse to rob the poor to pay the already asset rich. None of it is inflationary. Most of it is posturing to calm investors’ nerves. If everybody is locked up at home there is nothing that can be done to boost either productivity or spending, and that is the deflationary elephant in the room. Assuming everything goes as well as can possibly be expected, it will take years to climb out of this hole.


#17

So Leo reckons we’re in a better place now than 2008 to handle the oncoming recession. But our national debt is way higher this time…


#18

With the rest of the world in the same boat, there are different issues this time around.

Globally, something will have to give!


If enough countries get together, they may tell the moneylenders to stick their debt where the sun don’t shine.


#19

Why do you not like moneylenders? I’ve lent money through linkedfinance which funds businesses throughout Ireland. Am I evil?
The people behind government bonds are regularly ordinary peoples pension funds looking for safety.

If they don’t want to pay the money back perhaps they shouldn’t borrow in the first place.


#20

“If they don’t want to pay the money back perhaps they shouldn’t borrow in the first place.”

If the money was issued into the economy debt free, the world would be a far better place, money should be a lubricant not a store of wealth & power. Property & precious metals are stores of wealth.

We would see the end to the boom-bust “business cycle” as the bankers couldn’t manipulate the money supply to “harvest” the gains of the previous boom, by buying up assets cheaply on the downside.

There is nothing wrong with personal & corporate borrowing to allow people & business to advance, but having entire states borrow to run countries is simply too much. These moneylenders are simply parasites.