Recession over!!

rte.ie/business/2009/1221/economy.html

8DD

Sixty two thousand four hundred repetitions make one truth. Idiots!

Still talking utter horseshit eh Austin…

back in 07 he lead the last herd of lemmings off the cliff…I am sure there will be some more for the slaughter…

Seriously what is it with these guys, pure herd mentatility, cannot see 1-2 yrs out in advance…

Gaybo was on the Late Late last Friday night and he was saying that 2010 will be a bloodbath and worse than 2009. He really did not read the RTE ‘ramp the economy’ with optimism to generate consumer confidence script did he! I do not think Tubs was expecting that answer. I do not know how informed Gaybo’s view on these matters are, was he making the statement from talking to a range of people or is his opinion about as valid as any of us on here?

Also in contrast with the patent RTE ‘ramp the economy’ agenda was on their Saturday morning radio business show somebody from Retail Ireland (I tihnk) was saying that 15% of retailers will be gone in Q1 2010. He even remarked that the ‘bag’ indicator from watching shoppers in the Dundrum Centre that morning looked poor. Of course RTE are biased on the economy with advertising revenue being an essential element of their income.

To be fair, Dublin city centre has been very very busy over the past week or two.

It will be interesting to see what the new year has in store

I agree with him on this bit at least.

To a point. Friday was mainly the main rush in terms of bodies and it was all messy drinking end of year christmas parties/meetups etc. etc. from what I could see its always going to be busier but it will never be 2006 busy for a long long time maybe even never.

In fairness, Austin never said the recession was over rather the survey indicated that the bulk of the adjustment to the downturn may be over.

I do agree with this and think that business that will survive have made the necessary cost adjustments at this stage and following a year of that, conditions are easier than a year ago when no one really had any idea how 2009 was going to pan out.

Added to this the post you put up on examinership being permitted to break leases. This could lead the way to a lot of companies going into examinership as they have a prospect of surviving, while without the option of breaking a lease they don’t. So while retail ventures may continue to go into examinership, they will emerge at the end of the process rather than being refused it or dying in the process.

It may also encourage landlords to be flexible with existing rent terms…

ponders

Right, the current establishment have a huge amount of post-colonial cringe and general lack of national fibre, right? They’re always desperate to copy what they see as the Big Boys Club, primarily the UK and US for that particular generation in charge now, right?

Is this what causes them to seem completely incapable of understanding that little Ireland is a small open economy and that therefore tyhe appropriate policy prescriptions are different than for large closed economies?

Stimulating consumer spending on bling will only make the situation worse FFS! We don’t make any bling! All that spending will immediately leak out of the economy in imports! It’ll be the much-bemoaned “Newry shopping” times 1000!

We’re a small open economy with very few cash cow export resources (that we haven’t already given away), we need to attract money in from overseas, that’s the only way we can make money, and that means selling stuff to forreners or convincing forreners to come visit here and spend their forren cash on home-produced tourism goods and services. End. Of. Story.

Bloody hell, you’d think this was some sort of wildly complicated advanced quantum physics! It’s f***ing simple, why does nobody in this benighted idiotic crazy loonytunes country get it?!?!

I think your last point there is hugely important - the examinsership ruling is going to have a huge positive impact on retailers - at the cost of all kinds of landlords.

Having though about the sentiment earlier, last year I was really petrified about what would happen this year. Well, having totted up the numbers, deciding not to cut staff salaries (did lose a few instead) has turned the fairly moderate decline in sales to a 40% decline in income. Do I give a shit? No actually. I never thought happiness was an S320 so the income decline is not important. What is important is that I have way more confidence to face whatever else down and I am not as afraid of going bust (ask me this agian in March :stuck_out_tongue: ).

That is nto to say we are in for terrific pain as peoples balance sheets are sorted out. But that always had to happen. My biggest frustration is that NAMA will save us nothing and have a huge opportunity cost in delaying our return to proper international competitiveness. Like Larry noted on a graph I did on property prices recently - in it making sense as it looks like every other property bubble that ever happened - our adjustment is inevitable, like every bog standard economic collapse. The sooner we get to where we need to be the better.

The losses have been incurred, but the pain (or medicine) has not been taken. That will happen in 2010 when the banks cease rolling over loans, rolling up interest and move to collect on their loans and tighten up their balance sheets. Hence 2010 WILL be worse in terms of bankruptcies, liquidations and job losses. The government is looking for 30% deflation in order to regain competitiveness. We are just beginning. It will be 2011 at least before we see any improvement - and that depends on the banks injecting liquidity into the economy. Lending to SMEs doesn’t cut it. The property market needs to show signs of life before there can be any real recovery.

And then there’s interest rates. Even if they don’t rise till as late as 2012 that would still be a catastrophe for masses of the population on big mortgages (not to mention the exchequer).

Couldn’t have put it better. Rising interest rates are the accident waiting to happen. They will trigger the collapse of the commercial property investment market and set off massive residential mortgage defaults when people are just unable to make the repayments. As I said, the pieces are in place. The pain has yet to be felt and the medicine taken.

rte.ie/business/2009/1222/cso.html

labour €25.50 an hour? no wonder companies pulling out of ireland. Even if the yield of product was 99.999% we would still be un competitive

XX

rte.ie/business/2009/1223/esri.html

8DD