REDC: Average opinion, 12 years for recovery

Taken from The Irish Independent, 4th December 2010

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](https://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/national-news/public-recovery-will-take-12-years-2448617.html)

That can’t be good for consumer confidence.

Blue Horseshoe

Has anyone done any work on migration cycles in Ireland over the past century?

There was an outward migration trend from post famine period to it’s low point in the 1950s.
I’m guessing it follows this 12/15 year pattern. (I have not looked at migration statistics, so these years are finger in the air)

195? -1965 outward migration
1966-1979 inward migration
1980-1992 outward migration
1993-2008 inward migration
2009-202? outward migration

I reckon it will be 2023 at least before people return if previous trends are any guide.

The first time that immigration exceeded emigration since probably the early 18th century was in the late 90’s. There was significant emigration from the early 19th century until the late 1990’s with peaks in the 20’s, 50’s and 80’s. We are now back to “normality”.

You do the hokey pokey
and you turn yourself around (by 2023)
and that’s what it’s all about.

A sign on my wall says ‘What if the Hokey Cokey really IS what it’s all about’.

If you believe in peak oil and terminal energy decline, then the answer is **never! **