Oh boy, they’re all in Ireland love!
Aw what a pain in the hole and how long your soon to be former home languish on the market empty?
That’s an interesting idea, and I suspect there is something to it. The pattern of migration to Ireland has completely changed. We are attracting relatively few migrants from the western Europe, and instead are seeing a steady (and growing) influx from further east. This is expectable becuase Ireland is still a wealthy country that offers good opportunities compared to their home countries. This can be seen particularly with the uptick in migration from the other PIGS.
The major wave of Poles/Lithuanians etc has probably passed, but still a healthy flow. Also interesting to see how migration can be controlled by government policy. This is done through the various visa schemes. In the case of Brazil, there has been a concerted government campaign to attract thousands and thousands of Brazilian students, and as you can see, it has been very successful, or at least until the language school scandals broke during Summer 2014. Was this done to support the language school industry? The rental market? To lower wages for the service industry? Who knows.
Anyways, it’s pretty grim all round. Can’t afford to rent, can’t afford to buy!!
What a country, etc, etc.
I sometimes wonder how a couple on low/minimum wage with a kid or two actually survive. I mean, how can they possibly pay rent, bills, childcare, health insurance, food etc? Just get the state to provide it all for you, together with bus pass, medical card and everything else
I could go one cognitive jump further and say that often you could be forgiven for gettin’ the feeling that Ireland is very often used as a live testbed for all kinds of ahem, “policies” and “stuff”.
Meanwhile the modest proposal roars on undeterred.
@mightyz, Good post. I completely agree.
Unfortunately it is hard to disagree with this comment mightyz… it’s both frightening and sobering…
in fact you could probably extrapolate and say that in general people in Ireland do not learn, or do not try to learn, from mistakes, either their own or others’… There are sooooo many things that we tried to do from scratch instead of just going to another country where it works and duplicating their systems… eg imagine how different accommodation would be if the developers were told to build apartment blocks according to blueprints from Italy/Finland/Denmark/???.. we’d have plenty of storage and decent sized rooms that might actually be suitable for families…
That’s been official policy for a long time. Mr Anderson is of the opinion culturally, “we don’t know how to fail” and if you don’t know how to fail you can’t participate in a learning process which leads to beneficial growth and novelty.
There appears to be a simple rule applied to every official institutional situation in Ireland.
Pain must be avoided at all costs.
Yet the true cost is simply pain delayed.
Which means no learning can happen, the lesson waits not always patiently but diligently it’s working away in the background and as the pain potential increases to level it becomes even more unfathomable to most.
I guess we could assume pain is perversely proptional to denial in Ireland.
So the rental area of accommodation always to my mind acts as the canary in the property gold mines, the buffer and dumping ground as well for others debts and thus a barometer for the real health of the property market can often be sought here.
Then there is the school of pass it on they’ll suck it up cause it’s socio-capitalistic karma baby! That’s for another day.
So when should we pencil in the net collapse or has it already begun?
When did repacious rents peak last time and did it overlap, pre-empt or post date said recent property collapse of 06/07?
From personal experience, I moved in September 2008. That was at or about the peak of rent. Rents started dropping rappidly after that; I negotiated a large drop in rent the following September. I moved again after six years there a few months ago. I’m now paying a bit less than I would have done in 2008.
Back then rents were rising because landlords were “passing on” their increase in costs (interest rates had gone up). They did this against the backdrop of supply increasing (8,000-9000 for Dublin IIRC) and void periods becoming enormous. It took about 6 months for this to collapse.
However now there is approx 1800-1900 for all of Dublin city and there’s no sign of that changing anytime soon. The only thing keeping rents in check is the inability of tenants to pay more.
Rents for city centre apartments are within 10% of their peak values.
Rents for 3 to 4 bed family homes in D4 remain approx 40% below peak values
Given the hits on gross incomes and added tax burden, the pain levels from these rent prices is even higher than peak I am sure.
I’d read that as a final sell signal if I had skin in the game, but it might be just a bit too late.
Rents 10% off peak and so many BTL mortgages in multi-annual default. It’s all a bit fishy.
So an “uneasing” of supply might undo all the short term gains. Causing more than mere unease in the ranks of those who hold property to rent.
Yes the relative health of the economy in 07 & 08 was much better than it is now. Collectively the population was 6 or so years younger with not so many losing their lives, jobs or ability to stay on this island. Why the mortgage defaults probably hadn’t even gotten goin’.
I remember '08 it was mental alright. I managed to buck the 1700pm trend for an ordinarily average 3bed-semi at the time in an area I ended up in being not so much out of choice but out of need. I was lucky enough to find same type accommodation for 1100pm (friends of family thank you!). This allowed me to end my 7 years of house sharing at the time (which was 1800pm for a fine family home, my cut was about 550pm) and I think the rent went up after I vacated). Though I coudl begin to move on with things it was indeed a very stressful period in Ireland. One where George Lee lost the run of himself. I had to give up watching de telly not long after that.
So to conclude I’ve now got my monthly rental outgoing down to an on paper €600pm, of course like many income has taken’ a hammering over those years so we won’t talk about that or all the ancillary cost you incur from all the moving which I don’t want to add up or I might melt. Well I’ve managed on average I reckon to stay well below the headline rental pm cost for what it’s worth. I’ll be soon sharing rental gaff for longer than not!
Had we a real genuine understanding of how to manage our shelter needs on this isle I’d probably have built a fine co-op facility somewhere and shared it with a half dozen or more people. It didn’t happen due to the runaway train soon to become train wreck of a property market we ended up with.
Some day Pin acres will be so and then we can start planning pinstervile to feed the needs of Pinopolis as she shoots toward the sky.