The autumn seasonal dip in rental ads on Daft.ie is at a new low. Only 935 ads for houses and apartments in total for all of Dublin on October 1st (chart, more charts). The total number of houses for rent among 1.3 million people is less than a single decent sized housing estate!
I’m calling a second lost decade, back to back. For the win.
The number of 935 is astonishing.
According to daft the properties for rent number in Dublin peaked in Dublin in late 09 at 7,000 and close to 4,000 new properties were being advertised a month!
There are 479k dwellings in Dublin city and county. A microscopic 0.2% of them right now are currently advertised as being for rent. The private rental stock is 114k, and it’s still well under 1% of that too.
According to the RTB the average tenancy is a bit over three years. As such a lot of new tenancies mustn’t be going near daft at all these days, just let quietly to people already on EAs’ books, people coming to ends of tenancies finding friends to take over, etc.
I don’t believe there is any secret market - tenants are just staying put.
In the last three years I have had only two properties become vacant - one was due to immigration (tenant return to Canada), the other for non-payment of rent (vanished into the night after RTB adjuctication decided she owned €17k).
This compares with 2011, when I had 14 turnovers in a 12 month period.
I was talking to a Brazilian girl over the weekend who said she lives in a house in Fairview with 23 other Brazilian girls. Four to a room. When the powers that be talk about the benefits of ‘diversity’ etc etc this is what they really mean ie of benefit to their bank balances.
When the rent is capped by legislation at a level below what neighboring properties already charge at a time where there are huge numbers of people seeking accommodation, why would a landlord advertise on Daft? You will be inundated with calls and emails and most likely have to just take the add down after 20 minutes or even less. Word of mouth and a personal recommendation from someone you trust is the starting point for finding a tenant. Chances are the old tenants will know people, your friends, families, colleagues, etc… will know people. You can start with a short list, do one to one viewings and get to talk to prospective tenants properly rather than have crowds coming through the property.
Daft is redundant in the current market, their turnover of stock means nothing and the advertised rents are the top tail of the distribution and representative of landlords who got lucky with the timing of their last rent review and squeezed every last drop they could and of course the cohort who’re flat out ignoring the current legislation.
Dubliners spend 55% of take-home pay on rent
Rent-to-income ratio at new high in Dublin, with Limerick the cheapest urban area
irishtimes.com/business/per … -1.3267093
Rents now 16% higher than their 2008 peak. Now at highest ever.
thejournal.ie/rent-prices-ha … 7-Nov2017/
I heard Ronan Lyons on the radio this AM say rents in the likes of Cavan are up 40% in the past few years and are now nearly 8% above their Tiger peak
And just think how high they can be driven over next few years as employment figures are strong. It’ll be crazy - I think people will look back wistfully at the rents they were paying in 2017.
I look at what a lot of my late 20-something work colleagues are paid, and what they outlay on rent in Dublin… they have no real hope of buying OR saving. It’s a real double-edged sword.
rents were low during the tiger period though so that shouldnt be a shock
Post 2001 rents were relatively good value. Around 98-2001 there was a ‘rental crisis’ in Dublin
People have totally forgotten this.
Rents peaked in 2001/2002, then dropped for several years before peaking again in 2008.
The peak in 2008 was roughly the rents same as the peak in 2001/2002.
Dublin rents in 2002 were atrocious.
Appreciably higher in relation to average incomes than they are even today.
Eoghan Murphy has disputed the numbers in today’s daft report:
Minister for Housing Eoghan Murphy has disputed a report by property website Daft.ie showing an 11.2 per cent increase in rents in the last 12 months.
Mr Murphy said the Government was well aware of the acute pressures in the rental market driven by rising demand, the economic recovery, a lack of supply and by the high costs that indebted landlords face in servicing their mortgages.
He said the pressures were borne out by the upward trend highlighted in the data but that “ I would dispute the reported rate of increase”.
The Minister said the website measured asking prices which tended to be higher than the rents actually being paid by tenants.
“The low number of properties being advertised on Daft.ie means that the figures are based on a relatively small sample and may not be entirely representative,” he said.
I agree with him. Daft is showing year on year increases of about 11% in the first half of 2017. The RTB/ESRI index is showing only about 7%. This latter index is based on all registered tenancies, not just those advertised online. I need not remind pinsters that the stock on daft is at an all time low.
Typically these two series have barely diverged. But, now that they are, I would tend to trust the one with the more representative sample (in fact the population). And that is the RTB/ESRI one.
A lot of fuss over stock vs flow. They’re representative of different things.
Exactly, it’s utterly beside the point.
Yet what it tells us about the thinking and outlook at the top is far more valuable.
Welcome back mightyz, how has the move gone? Fully settled?
Is Wroclaw your home town?
@mightyz, Great to see you’re still posting.