Rents down 17% in a year - Daft Rental Report 2009 Q2

What will the peak to trough fall in rents be on average (18.5% by Q2 2009)?

  • Less than 20%
  • 20% to 25%
  • 25% to 30%
  • 30% to 35%
  • 35% to 40%
  • 40% to 45%
  • 45% to 50%
  • More than 50%

0 voters

Hi all,

Latest daft report is out. Full PDF, some graphs and the press release, etc., are all up in the usual spot: daft.ie/report

My commentary, with some added text and even a graph, is up on my blog.

In my commentary, I speculate a little on forces in the rental market beyond the next 6-9 months or so. I think this topic has additional importance because of the impact it may have on the whole NAMA process. I’d be interested in hearing your thoughts on how much more rents may fall, and any reasoning why, hence the poll.

All the best,

R

That’s a pretty big “if” Ronan…

Fair point, and you may notice that no likelihoods were assigned to the events in question!
In defence of the scenario, most analysts in banks/stockbrokers expect GDP at least to turn by Q1/Q2 2010 and I’d be surprised if the Live Register continued to register significant increases beyond next summer…
Heck, NCB even upgraded their 2009 GDP forecast (albeit from -9% to -8%… but still, it’s a start!)

The Big variable is the ‘accidental’ landlord tendency . We have more empties than rentals as I said before . Putting these empties on the market will tank it completely .

In the cities where NAMA will own the most property the overhang is less than in towns and rural areas.

Furthermore the government will squeeze SW rent allowances a lot from now on and will set the market in certain areas by doing so .

I feel the peak to trough fall will eventually be double , ie 35% not 17% .

On a positive note Daft in Galway has serious traction with the Advertiser for the first time …August is a peak period with students coming back . Daft is now the dominant rental resource in the county overall too.

I commend ye look into holiday rentals for next year Ronan …1-2 week jobbies .

Their record is hardly stellar Ronan now is it? Even if what is mooted comes to pass I think we’re more likely to be L shaped then V wouldn’t you agree?

Agree with most of the points 2Pack has made, I think there will be a slight buffer affect on city centre rents eventually a la Japan as people move back into the city and away from ladder / rural madness.

We have 3 times more empties than private rentals and a lot of private rentals are students in cities where colleges are.

The governmant MAN strategy has led to a skewing of job creation towards towns where heavy fibre has been installed …and these correlate strongly to towns where students are as well …eg Unis and ITs .

This tendency has been well established for quite some time

eg archives.tcm.ie/roscommonherald/ … ry6990.asp

But only towns with 10k persons plus and widespread fibre and an IT have really benefitted . Anything smaller or less serviced was in atrophication …masked by the construction bubble .

The lack of serious fibre and an IT explains why Arklow Navan Naas Newbridge Mullingar and Portlaoise have seen horrendous unemployment post 2007 RELATIVE to similar towns like Athlone Dundalk and Carlow that have an IT and have fibre installed and TURNED ON .

PM me if you want more data Ronan but I feel that a certain critical infrastructural/service mass/mix is required …or else being big by Irish standards .

I also feel that these towns will pull away in any recovery .

Ronan,

I suggest you try to talk to some of the 3rd level “class of '09” and listen to their outlook on their future here. It’s evocative of the 1980’s.

This cohort and their fellow graduates in coming years, as potentially relatively high earners, should be the main stay of the housing market, rental and buyers, for the next ten or so years. Any I have spoken to, graduates in a range of subjects, are finding it nearly impossible to find work and all know individuals who have emigrated just to get a job, even outside the disciplines within which they graduated.

In short term, it would appear that net emigration is likely to return with a vengeance, not only due to a reversal of the recent immigration into the State but also due to ‘natives’ leaving.

IMHO, the outlook for the next number of years is for a continued shrinking of the potential rental and FTB population while at the same time significant oversupply of residential property in nearly every area and sector of the market.

While we will ultimately see credit conditions improve, demand is likely to remain … subdued.

Blue Horseshoe

Are these the same guys who back in 2008 were predicting a recovery in 2009?

From August 2008 …

Blue Horseshoe

Increasing taxes might have a say. A lot of people may look to cut down on luxuries like food, clothing and shelter. :frowning:

Income tax system reform could have a big effect. Lower paid Irish pay less tax than their european counterparts. It’s a potential source of revenue, so it can’t be ignored.

I negiotiated a 24% reduction (and a fresh kit out of the apartment) recently. The price from a year earlier was pretty good back then.

The landlord from next door also dropped his rent in line with what I’m paying

Great suggestion, BH, have talked in a scattered sense to people I know who’ve graduated this year, but perhaps something more structured might be interesting.
Will discuss with MortgageBroker, who’s been keen to try out vlogs!

Nice interview this mornin.
Fair play to daft
letting you go on the radio saying there’s never been a better time to rent.

Has Tom Parlon been on whinging yet?

I’m renting a 4 bed detacted in Mullingar for €800pm down from €1200pm 14 months previous. I really can’t see that rent falling any further as even though the overall supply remains high the amount of rentals of decent quality is still relatively low. I was looking for 4 months before getting this place.

Up to this there has been a quite narrow band of prices with little differance in price between good and poor quality houses and locations. I could see poorer quality houses and locations dropping further to attract tenants if supply remains this high or higher.

With the €200 2nd. property tax and interest rates likely to rise the pressure from the landlords side is the keep prices up or try to increase.

Sing that, there is a fibre cable running 20ft. from my front door, but with no access to it I’m stuck with Eircom’s shite copper getting about 3.5 meg from a 7 meg connection and I’m about a mile from the exchange.

I see house prices falling by about 60% in Dublin. Therefore I see no reason to not expect at least a 50% fall in rents. Still you might be able to maintain your yield :unamused:

On the topic of the rents I’m not sure people are yet experiencing increasing value relative to their take home pay. For me rents are down sure but my take home pay is down just as much thanks to taxes and a pay cut. I don’t think my situation is particularly unusual either. With more tax increases to come I think we have more rental drops yet to come just to track the reduction spending power.

I think the increase in supply is yet to find its way into prices.

Rent was high but never rose to the dizzying heights of buying.

Many people including myself were on rents set back in 2001
and managed to avoid an increase since.
Only now are rents coming back to where they have been for some of us all along.

Agreed, which Is why I allowed a 10% diff. Perhaps 50% is a tad high. Maybe say 40-50%.

So rents are down 20% from peak. Interest rates are down a lot more. Canny still hanging in there for now.

Canny interest rates aren’t down as much, the banks put the screws on BTL mortgages.