Report estimates there are almost 250,000 vacant properties

No, derelict is not counted as a home at census time.

ONLY in Dublin Cork and Galway CITIES. Elsewhere a long term void tax will reactivate sufficient supply to deal with any eventualities. :slight_smile:

I don’t think it’s true that there any many estate that will never have demand. It all depends on the price.

Also, we could easily use some of them as social housing or emergency accommodation. There’s quite some demand there and surely a new house in Longford is preferable to a room in a dodgy hostel in inner-city Dublin.

Total Housing Supply Requirement (2014 - 2018) Cork - 4,400
Complete & Vacant and Near Complete in 2012 - 512
Complete & Vacant and Near Complete in 2015 - 55

Total Housing Supply Requirement (2014 - 2018) Galway - 2,316
Complete & Vacant and Near Complete in 2012 - 282
Complete & Vacant and Near Complete in 2015 - 61

Total Housing Supply Requirement (2014 - 2018) Limerick City and County - 2,635
Complete & Vacant and Near Complete in 2012 - 447
Complete & Vacant and Near Complete in 2015 - 165

I looked at the report.

There are no estimates in it. There is a simply a reporting of the Census numbers which are now OVER FIVE YEARS OLD.

No one has any idea what the vacancy rate is in Ireland right now. Census 2016 will tell us, probably next year.

Next MONTH I would think ( late June)

Vacancy rate in the west and midlands ( west of Kildare Navan and Enfield) if anything, will have risen since 2016, east of that they will probably have dropped.

On average the Irish household in 2011 and 2006 contained 2.7 persons. Soooo if the population rose by 150k or so in estimates then we needs to.

  1. Build 60k units at least in the last 5 years…very nearly managed that.
  2. Retire nothing from the stock …around 1% of the stock derelicts every year which is 20k units

I’ll hazard a guess we dropped our vacancy rate by 40k to slightly north of 200k so. We’ll know soon… :slight_smile:

This is just an attempt to construct an empire. Skehan is looking to be appointed the housing Tsarina where he wll have the chance to spend other people’s money pushing his ideas.

Perhaps he sees himself as some Irish Eliot Ness, roaming the country with his band of housing untouchables seizing unoccupied houses and telling people where they should live.

Some of his previous contradictory statements include:

herald.ie/news/housing-boss- … 21900.html

irishtimes.com/opinion/new-a … -1.2475521

It will be interesting to see if Coveney falls for this distracting propaganda.

Kelly did, sure he was certain that houses would be delivered in time for the election where none actually were

I was driving to a meeting yesterday morning listening to the Radio. There was some idiot lecturer in some property-related discipline parroting the number of 250,000 unoccupied residential properties. This baseless and unsupported factoid has now got wings and is spreading to become some form of n-th hand received unquestioned wisdom.

These notes provide another perspective on the estimated number of unoccupied properties in Ireland.

DKM and GeoDirectory have been publishing reports on the numbers of residential properties (with some other analyses) since the middle of 2014. (They also produce reports on commercial properties:

The four reports available are:

GeoView Q4 2015 - Quarterly Residential Vacancy Rates Report - dkm.ie/uploads/downloads/GeoDire … e_4_V7.pdf

GeoView August 2015 - Residential Buildings Report - dkm.ie/uploads/downloads/GeoDire … t_2015.pdf

GeoView February 2015 - Residential Buildings Report - dkm.ie/uploads/downloads/L8442_- … tial_V5_(2.pdf

GeoView September 2014 - Residential Buildings Report - dkm.ie/uploads/downloads/K7972_- … tial_V7_(2_(3).pdf

In summary, their estimates of the numbers of residential properties at the time of these analyses were:

Q4 2015        2,009,896
Q3 2015        2,008,568
Q4 2014        2,023,273
Q2 2014        2,019,638

There will always be a background number of properties deemed to be unoccupied and habitable. This will include properties being renovated, not occupied to occupant illness, long-term living elsewhere, rental voids and those not being occupied while involved in a transaction.

I left a property unoccupied for more than two years because I knew prices were increasing and I could not be arsed being an amateur landlord dealing with the cost, unpleasantness and risk of renting. Similarly a couple I know have moved from their main house to a rented property while it is being renovated.

Let’s look at a scenario:

Take the baseline number of residential properties counted by the CSO in April 2015 and compare this with the number of properties counted by DKM/GeoDirectory and the change in the number of completed and unoccupied or nearly completed and unoccupied properties in unfinished estates in the interval.

Q1 2011 Residential Properties CSO                                1,994,845
Q4 2015 Residential Properties DKM/GeoDirectory                   2,009,896
Difference                                                           15,051
New Residential Properties Connected To The Electricity Network      50,466
Nett Properties Lost From Q1 2011 To Q4 2015                         35,415
Unoccupied Properties in Q1 2011                                    230,056
Estimated Unoccupied Properties Q4 2015 Using CSO Baseline From     178,527

The simplistic approach I have taken here is:

• Calculate the difference between the number of residential properties counted in Q1 2011 and Q4 2015 = 15,051.

• Count the number of new residential properties connected to the electricity network = 50,466

• The difference between the number of new properties connected and the difference in the number of properties counted of 35,415 represents the nett number of properties lost. There is a turnover in properties annually. The Housing Agency themselves estimate that 0.5% of the population of residential properties are removed every year. (This seems slightly high to me.)

• Assume that a proportion of the nett number of properties lost were counted as unoccupied in 2011 – say 60%.

• Assume that a proportion of the number of new residential properties connected to the electricity network represent properties counted as unoccupied in 2011 – say 60%.

So the estimated number of unoccupied residential properties is 178,527.

The issues of:

• What exactly is counted as an unoccupied and habitable property

• How many of these properties are unoccupied and habitable rather than being validly unoccupied

• The location and thus the effective usability of these properties

remain unresolved.

So how many of the pool of properties counted as unoccupied are practically usable and can contribute to residential property shortage is unknown.

I would have thought organisations like the Housing Agency should be bringing more intelligence and realistic and practical analysis to this difficult situation. I am surprised they have not made any reference to the DKM/GeoDirectory analyses.

Thanks a lot Chicken. One interesting factoid.

The number of homes overall dropped. I think that was a technical adjustment to do with eircodes and eircode is a fucking mess where I live with a good few ‘uncoded’ but habitable premises that have no eircode.

Leaving aside the eircode fiasco the CER should force the ESB to regularly publish the number of domestic connections and the number of new domestic connections every month. That is the single best proxy rather than simply eircode counting.

After we see that one off adjustment between Q4 2014 and Q3 2015 which is eircode the rest of the data shows that NEW BUILDS are a netch more than Retirements on the aggregate but then again a lot of retirements are where an old person dies in a rural area and nobody wants the house.

So we are building at replacement level at least. I think. The increase in late 2015 could simply be people applying for missing eircodes.

Overall a static NATIONAL supply situation I think. We lose rural isolated homes to dereliction and decay (and the meter taken out) as older people die off and we replace them with urban homes and also rural homes NEAR towns with work like Galway…plenty of one off ranch building within 20 miles of Galway for the last 3 years that I can see.

So if the population expands and the housing stock is static then what of takeup. I noted that the long decline in average household sizes stopped in 2011. It was the first census where average household sizes was the same as the one before, 2.7. Also note that the CSO annual population estimates are actually quite good and no shocks appear at census time there. Allowing for a gentle resumption in decline to 2.6 persons per we simply take this estimate number.

cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … april2015/

4,635,400 / 2.6 = 1.78m occupied homes out of 2.01m occupIABLE homes or 223k empties and that’s why I a few days ago said it would be over 200k empty ( but not 250k or anything near) in the census next month.

Of course these empties are generally where there is no work, East Mayo, Donegal, Leitrim Longford Kerry and not in Stepaside where there is work, innit. :smiley:

Yes – the number of properties not connected to the electricity network that are habitable and inhabited is so small as to be irrelevant. It is why I suggested some time ago that ESB Network, who know everyone’s address and not Bord Gais who do not should have been given the Irish Water role.

So ESB Network property details would be useful and accurate. Regarding post codes, I know that up to the middle of 2015, post codes were only assigned to 70% of ESB Network addresses.

GeoDirectory has been around for years and because it is part of An Post who also have a knowledge of all addresses and so should be quite accurate. The drops are not explained but may have been part of a rationalisation.

The confusing information publically available just shows the lack of real information into which vacuum beardy twats like Skehan rush.

Coveney is losing control of the message and being made to appear foolish as the headline assertion of 250,000 empty properties gets translated into the assumption and simplistic message that these are all immediately available for habitation. This is not correct.

If I were Coveney, the first action I would take is to get an accurate view of what exactly the situation is across both supply and demand. I would call in beardy Skehan and tell him to either shut the fuck up or be sacked.

I do not agree that the current rate of building is at the required replacement rate.

From 2012 to 2015, 16,221 properties in unfinished estates classified as built and unoccupied or nearly complete became occupied. This is a once-off bump that cannot be repeated.

The building rate is low (GeoView Q4 2015 - Quarterly Residential Vacancy Rates Report - dkm.ie/uploads/downloads/GeoDire … e_4_V7.pdf):

and:

I still believe the number of unoccupied properties, whatever metric is used to classify a property as unoccupied, will be less than 200,000. But even that is meaningless.

I am not a betting person but in this case, I might.

I entirely agree with the ESB observation, that and their excellent GIS system which is years in place.

Have you as source for that number?? ( or by PM if necessary)

I am at least at 210k and possibly 220k (excluding the Temporarily Absents in column b or c) and counting empty houses flats and holiday homes…which are normally empty in April at census time. We agree they are generally in the ‘wrong place’ for activation as medium term homes for the homeless…who wants to be trapped in Roundstone in the winter after all. :slight_smile:

Can we at least forget about holiday homes as they are irrelevant
From the Last census
D Unoccupied - vacant house (Number) 168,427
E Unoccupied - vacant flat (Number) 61,629

Both are likely to have dropped

From 2006
There were 266,000 vacant dwellings in 2006 representing 15 per cent of the total housing stock. Of these, 175,000 were houses, 42,000 were flats and 50,000 were classified as holiday homes.

cso.ie/en/newsandevents/pres … 6-housing/

I cant find the figures for 2002

My guess is there will be much less flats (under 30k) and somewhat less houses (150k) in the latest census

Yes, I agree with your estimate.

The CSO did not count vacant dwellings before 2006.

The slight drop of 6,000 in the number of vacant residential units from 2006 - 236,000 to 2011 - 230,000 occurred in the context of:

• An increase in population of 348,000, largely comprised of immigrants needing homes rather than children being born into existing households

• The overhang of a building boom leading to large numbers of unfinished housing developments

during the interval.

From 2011 to 2016, there has been:

• A smaller increase in population – I would estimate the number at around 150,000

• Virtual cessation of residential building

• Conversion of previously unoccupied residential units in unfinished housing developments that might have been counted as unoccuplied in 2011 to completed and occupied

For these reasons, I feel the number of dwellings counted as unoccupied will drop by at least 50,000.

Of course, I could be entirely wrong.

Anyway, such attempts at rational unbiased analysis are just pissing in the gale of blowhard dogma.

What is simply appalling is that there is no analysis of what role, IF ANY, such unoccupied units can play in solving current housing problems.

VACANT HOUSES have been published back to 1861 in every single census somewhere, not always in the population bit like nowadays. Not sure if they are on the statbank though. :slight_smile:

CSO published the 2011 vacancy rates for every single townland only a year ago.

independent.ie/business/pers … 69108.html

No flies on you Simon.

One person per house there Ruth?

And given its seafront location you can call it the Glass Bottle Ghetteau.

It would be interesting to see an audit done of these land banks, if we had some joined up thinking, any revenues raised should be ring fenced for Dart Underground which could in turn add value to these sites. Being Irish Rail however, I expect the money to be appropriated by unions.

Coveney was on newstalk last week. It was unexceptional save for one point.

He was adamant (adamant!) that there would be no large-scale social-only dwellings built under his watch. He suggested these schemes of the past were a universal failure. I have pointed out several times that this is a myth. Many social-only schemes have very high levels of resident satisfaction. Only the failures (Limerick, north Dublin, etc) make the headlines.

He seems very comfortable with part V and local authorities current very small scale development. I have no idea how this will lead to the new build of thousands of social housing units every year.

Preliminary census figures out – 260k vacant properties of which 60k are holiday homes. I would say 2Pack called it right.

The majority don’t want the private housing supply problem fixed!
Most of the electorate have either bought or are going to buy at some stage and when they do they want the upward pressure on prices to continue.

Well assuming majority of these units are likely to be in PRIVATE ownership and could be vacant for all sorts of good reasons.
What do you propose? ripping up the constitution and seizing private property for public benefit??
No offence but that’s a slippery slope to hell, and not a new idea.

Another question you should ask yourself, unless there is a good reason why would anyone leave a property empty and NOT rent it out in the current day where rents gone insane?