Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions


#3939

Roll-on the tsunami of reprocessions :unamused:


#3940

Slowest tsunami ever


#3941

Burgess giving it loads on Radio1 now
about mortgage-holders strategically defaulting
A whining mortgage owner saying he paid €6k pa in USC, then Burgess points out he earns €100k pa at least!
“We have the best protected mortgage-holders in he world”


#3942

I heard BB earlier. He put on a fine show but lacked compassion which is the main measurement in any debate these days in Ireland, especially on housing.


#3943

Did he elaborate in any way on how that was relevant?


#3944

He’s a good honest, hard working taxpayer. Always paid his dues etc etc That was the tenor of his béal bocht


#3945

AIB lines up record €3.4bn loan portfolio sale

irishtimes.com/business/fin … -1.3728002


#3946

Value at origination of €3.4bn.

Selling for less than half that now :open_mouth:


#3947

The AIB portfolio is of BTL and Commercial Mortgages. Their home loan portfolio was the best among the Irish Banks.


#3948

AIB are charging a whopping 6% BTL rate now - I presume this is for new customers.

I know this is down to risk weights imposed by the regulator due to the awful default rates on historical BTLs in Ireland. But that was from an era with interest-only periods, poor underwriting standards and 100% lending.

I know this is down to risk weights imposed by the regulator due to the awful default rates on historical BTLs in Ireland. But that was from an era with interest-only periods, poor underwriting standards and 100% lending.

Mortgage finance has tax advantages, but at double the rate prevailing for owner occupiers, I can’t see why anyone who wasn’t already up to their neck in cash getting into the BTL business.

How risky is a BTL which is 50% at origination today? I would say not very. It’s pretty robust to a drop in house prices and/or a long period of arrears. BTL apartments in particular are generally more liquid and easier to reposess too, none of your “de fambilee home” stuff.

New build needs a buyer at the far end, and not just owner occupiers. I just can’t see the sums stacking up for an investor.

No surprise we’re building so little.


#3949

Q3 2018

There be 730,000 Home Mortgages
500,000+ are fully performing and were not rescheduled etc. Maybe they had a bad month here and there but they sorted that out.
115,000 were reworked of which 87% are now compliant with whatever the arrangement is.
65,000 are in arrears of less than 90 days. (some included in the figure ante as the arrangement failed)
28,000 are in arrears of over 720 days, this figure is not really reducing like all the rest.

I would wager that fully 25,000 out of the 28,000 in arrears over 720 days are actually in arrears **over 2000 days ** by now. The forbearance instead of repossession regime started at least 8 years ago if not 9 :slight_smile:

rte.ie/news/2018/1219/10180 … e-arrears/


#3950

I’d agree with you. I’d say they left it at 720 days on purpose so as not to highlight those 3, 4, 5+ years in arrears - as this would reflect badly on Central Bank’s inability to get banks to sort those out


#3951

Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions Q3 2018 figures

(Note 1: BTL figures are discussed separately here thepropertypin.com/viewtopic … 10&t=50546)
(Note 2: Analysis of Restructured Mortgages can be found here thepropertypin.com/viewtopic … 19&t=63422)

Report Link
centralbank.ie/docs/default … ?sfvrsn=10

Arrears


Repossessions


Court Proceedings

Restructures

Where Green = highest since records began and Blue = Lowest since records began


#3952

@TheJackal, your excellent BTL data analysis also shows that 720+ days probably mainly means 2000+ days too. :slight_smile:

Combined with the same PPR cohort we have around 40k won’t pays …whether they can pay or not which is a separate discussion. :frowning:

I honestly think that will pays are accounted for in restructures now, we won’t speculate on the gap between will pay something and will fully perform given enough time and money, and luck.


#3953

When you lend money to the first citizen of our capital city, you can be assured of repayment in full. Eventually. After numerous court appearances. At least, that’s what the headline seems to say.

independent.ie/irish-news/c … 96201.html
I wish someone could translate what the legal eagles told the court

The Mayor’s barrister said

I suppose if you charge in guineas it’s hard to talk about money in crude numbers like headline writers with the Indo. There is clarity on one basic point. The Mayor and his wife had

Their barrister was really earning her fees when she told the court that

I thought the data protection act was, well, protecting our data but it seems to be a prison which locks our data away, even the Lord Mayor can’t share basic facts with a Circuit Court Judge! Who makes these laws that prevent the administration of justice in public, even when the creditworthiness of our highest public representative is at issue?

The bank’s lawyer was equally obscure. She

No one put a figure on the bank’s legal costs but that would be additional to the mortgage arrears of €527,000 and the judge poured cold water on the bank’s hopes for damages

The judge seemed reluctant to drop the case:


#3954

De banks and de vultures!

independent.ie/irish-news/c … 12872.html


#3955

I wonder if their kids are in private schools. I wouldn’t be surprised


#3956

No such thing as strategic defaulters in Ireland!
They’ve probably saved close to 300k in rent on a similar property to this over the past 10 years. Not bad


#3957

Didn’t pay a bob for 9 years. :smiley:

independent.ie/irish-news/c … 15361.html

but


#3958

The latest recipients of the of Canny McSavvy award. Fair dues to them on a number of fronts-

Socking it to those pesky banks
Not having to make any rental or mortgage payments the last few years
Indirectly constraining supply of much needed housing to those who would honour their obligations

I particularly love the line “we’ve never stopped agreeing to sell the house”.

Surley privately educated in the McSavvy school for Canniness where you excel by failing as many exams as possible and can only graduate by managing to get others to pass their exams. The unfortunates who continually pass their exams get expelled after 30 or so years.

I doff my cap.