Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions

Probably be some “grassroots” organisation protesting and taking pictures when it gets auctioned.

I’ll keep an eye out for these figures today and do my usual analysis for both OO and BTL

Link is here but not live yet … istics.pdf

Stats up now.

By Joe Brennan
March 7 (Bloomberg) – Irish banks’ cases of 90+ days plus owner-occupier mortgage arrears rose to 11.9% at end-Dec. vs 11.5% end-Sept.

  • Buy-to-let arrears rose to 18.9% vs 17.9% on quarter,
    Dublin-based central bank says in statement
  • Irish banks’ had restructured 79,852 owner-occuper mortgages
    • 37.2% of restructured loans on interest only, 21.6% on
      reduced payments greater than interest only, 16.8% on
      term extensions
  • Banks had restructured 21,800 BTL loans at end-Dec.
  • Irish banks had 792,096 owner-occupier loan accounts, valued
    at EU110.8b at end-Dec
  • No. of early-case owner-occupier arrears fell in 4Q
  • Lenders had 903 repossessed owner-occupier homes end-Dec. vs
    947 start-Q4

NOTE: Bank of Ireland CEO Doesn’t Fear Says Tests as Arrears Stabilize {NSN MJ5BV90YHQ0X }

Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions Q4 2012 figures are out today
(note: analysis below includes a lot of restated Q3 figures) … istics.pdf

Total residential mortgage loan accounts outstanding - at end of Q4 2012 792,096 (Q3 2012 794,375)

Total mortgage arrears cases outstanding - at end of Q4 2012 which are:

  • In arrears up to 90 days 49,393 (Q3 2012 50,031)
  • In arrears 91 to 180 days 19,073 (Q3 2012 19,814)
  • In arrears over 180 days 75,415 (Q3 2012 71,544)
    of which
  • In arrears 181 to 360 days 24,063 (Q3 2012 24,469)
  • In arrears 261 to 720 days 27,829 (Q3 2012 26,453)
  • In arrears over 720 days 23,523 (Q3 2012 20,622)

Total arrears cases over 90 days outstanding 94,488 (Q3 2012 91,358)
% of loan accounts in arrears for more than 90 days 11.9% (Q3 2012 11.5%)

Residential properties in possession - at end of Q4 2012 903 (Q3 2012 944)

  • of which Residential properties repossessed on foot of an Order to date in 2012 194(Q1 65, Q2 44, Q3 47, Q4 38)

  • of which Residential properties repossessed on foot of an Order in 2011 196 (Q1 49, Q2 54, Q3, 43 Q4 50)

  • of which Residential properties voluntarily surrendered/abandoned to date in 2012 410(Q1 105, Q2 102, Q3 107, Q4 96)

  • of which Residential properties voluntarily surrendered/abandoned in 2011 412
    (Q1 91, Q2 119 , Q3 119, Q4 83)

Restructured Mortgages:
Total outstanding classified as restructured - at end of Q4 2012 79,852 (Q3 2012 81,634)

  • of which are not in arrears 42,031 or 52.6% (Q3 2012 43,600 or 53.4%)

So we can see:
% of arrears cases over 90 days (94,488) which is 11.9% of all residential mortgages outstanding, has resulted in repossessions of just 604 in the 12 months from Q1 2012 and Q4 2012 = 0.76%

And 2/3 of these were voluntarily surrendered.

Residential properties repossessed on foot of an Order between Q1 2012 and Q4 2012 was 194 or just 0.24%, meaning
just 1 in 400 residential mortgages in arrears over 90 days are repossessed by court order.

So if i’m reading right that’s a fall in the number of houses repossessed and surrendered in the year (fell by 2 each)? But arrears continues to mount :confused:

Maybe that should be in the signs of the impending recovery thread.

Is there overlap between these two? Or does “arrears” mean “arrears not restructured”?

It’s mad alright.

Repossession figures were stagnant in 2012. This despite going from 9.2% of arrears cases over 90 days (70,911) in Jan to 11.9% (94,488) in Dec 2012. XX

There will be an overlap for those restructures and in arrears. If you go off the figures, there’s a 37,821 overlap. We do not know how long they are in arrears for.

(79,852 restructured less 42,031 restructured but not in arrears)

Two sides of the reporting spectrum

Glass half full by IT - Pace of mortgage arrears slows … ing39.html

Glass half empty by Indo - Mortgage arrear figures climb again with more than 186,000 accounts behind … 15897.html

Love the bit where Indo says

Eh no… Figures clearly state under 90 days arrears went from 141K to 143K! Do IBF just make up replies or what?

And then IT totally lose the plot

So higher arrears but at a slower pace means optimism apparently. Yet, a sentence later they say arrears over 720 days (2 whole years) rose a whopping 14.1% to 23,500. That money (4.75bn) ain’t ever coming back

Can someone explain why the number only adds up to 75.6%?
What happend to the rest? Business as usual (not paying at all) or queued for reposssion?

Talk about not see the wood for the trees. Their key word is “early stage arrears” (read less than 90 days) i.e. it’s fallen from 50,031 to 49,363.

Basically the total number of arrears has increased but it’s okay there’s less in 90 days arrears but more in >180 days. But we don’t really care about long term arrears. Unbelievable :unamused:

Pie chart from the report. I’ve snipped it for you :wink:

And since I had to check myself: “Arrears capitalisation is an arrangement whereby some or all of the outstanding arrears are added to the remaining principal balance, to be repaid over the life of the mortgage.” Sounds like resetting the clock to me. I think this alone probably warrants further discussion and could be where the write-offs are disguised.

Thanks for that. I agree, that sounds kind of dubious…

RTE’s take: … n-arrears/

If the principal is increased by the accumulated unpaid interest then it’s not a write off.
“Capitalisation means that the arrears are added to the outstanding balance of the mortgage and a new monthly repayment is calculated. You then pay the new monthly payment for the remaining term.”

If the term stays the same and there is a long period of arrears then the repayments will increase, substantially. Not sure how that’s going to help someone who couldn’t pay the smaller amount.

Yes. But it states “some or all of the outstanding arrears are added to remaining principal balance”. So if some is added to the principal then what happens to the rest? In some case they may simply reduce the arrears and give the mortgage holder a chance to work out of it. But I expect if they’re restructuring this way they’d prefer to eliminate the arrears. Hence “some” is written off. You know it is happening on the qt?

Ah, right. I missed the “some or” bit.

According to Coffey “The banks set aside €16 billion in the last capitalisation round to cover bank loans in the residential market”.

I guess one way or another that’s going to have to trickle down to actual mortgage holders.

No he’s right it’s not unnaturally low it’s more supernatural, quite like ghosts you very rarely see one if ever in your life time.

According to NWL’s analysis, you are 27 times more likely to have your home repossessed in the UK than in Ireland, if you fall into arrears. … tatistics/