Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions


#3761

Q4 2016 CB Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions figures are out today

centralbank.ie/press-area/pr … 42016.aspx

My usual analysis to follow next week


#3762

Some analysis by Seamus Coffey on the latest CB mortgage figures

economic-incentives.blogspot.ie/ … uring.html
Arrears is a terrible way of measuring current mortgage distress

economic-incentives.blogspot.ie/ … tgage.html
Do we need another category in the mortgage arrears data?

He notes most arrears are in the 720+ days category and we need more info. I’ve long since said we need figures for 3, 4 and 5+ years arrears

Why is “arrears capitalisation” so difficult to understand?
economic-incentives.blogspot.ie/ … so_20.html


#3763

**Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions Q4 2016 figures **

(Note 1: BTL figures are discussed separately here viewtopic.php?f=10&t=50546)
(Note 2: Analysis of Restructured Mortgages can be found here viewtopic.php?f=19&t=63422)

Report Link
centralbank.ie/polstats/stat … istics.pdf

Arrears

Repossessions

Restructures
https://i.imgur.com/pBADM8l.png
Where Green = highest since records began and Blue = Lowest since records began


#3764

Some commentators?

Obligatory pic

independent.ie/business/pers … 09010.html

Repossessions granted by courts:1,072
Repossessions refused by courts: 1,826


#3765

#3766

Is this a new record?


#3767

These are the Courts figures per Central Bank to Q4 2016


#3768

Not quite matching up. Where are they getting their numbers from?


#3769

Dublin couple who lost €960k home after failing to pay mortgage for almost four years plan to appeal
independent.ie/irish-news/co … 57129.html

Some Freeman antics in this one by the looks of it.
Don’t k ow why how they managed to lose their home so quickly…4 years is a short period of non-payment in this country! And when you see only €200 paid in 4 years, think of that next time you hear someone say there is no such thing as strategic default in Ireland


#3770

It looks like about 7 years or so of arrears in total though.


#3771

SBP lead story today is that AIB poised to sell thousands of distressed mortgages.

To… David Hall.

Needless to say:

You’ve got to hand it to Hall; if he pulls this off, it could be very lucrative for him personally.


#3772

Let’s think this through. What’s Hall going to do with distressed mortgages? Service them? Like hell. Foreclose? Nope. He’s going to flog them on to a fund at a profit.

AIB will have “clean hands” and Hall makes a profit, at the expense of the taxpayer.


#3773

irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/new-mortgage-arrears-scheme-could-keep-people-in-homes-1.3067169

A scheme that would involve purchasing the houses of people who are deep in arrears with their mortgages while allowing the owners to stay in their homes could be launched within the next six weeks by a group led by high-profile debtor advocate David Hall.
I Care Housing, a not-for-profit approved housing body, is believed to be in advanced discussions with a number of banks about acquiring loans that are in arrears, with a view to allowing the borrowers to remain in their homes for the long term.
It is also in talks with pension funds and banks, both here and abroad, about securing funding for the project, which would allow the banks to reduce their stock of non-performing loans without having to seek repossessions.


#3774

If you can get past the fact Hall stands to profit from this scheme, it may have some wider merit, if (and it’s a big if!) it is arranged sensibly rather than just kicking the can en masse into David Hall’s lap.

I would like to see David Hall acquire only the real genuine hard luck cases - ie. low income, those who would qualify for social housing, living in lower value properties, cases who realistically might be homeless if repossessed - and then work his magic to ensure these people stay in their homes, arguing that the alternative will cost the state more.

The rest of the arrears cases: the jumbo mortgages, trophy homes, strategic defaulters etc could then be sold to ultra aggressive vulture funds who are free to do whatever takes to get their pound of flesh, and repossess as rapidly as possible if needs be. The PR problem is solved because realistically how much sympathy is out there for Brian O’Donnell and his ilk?


#3775

New Beginning - which I understand Hall has no involvement any more with - has a similar model.

There was already publicity about them sharing their customer details with an overseas fund.

A group set up to help homeowners in mortgage difficulties has apologised after the names and bank details of over 1,000 customers were passed to a commercial partner.
New Beginning emailed a database of names to Malta-based fund Arizun/Casa Mundi, with whom it planned to purchase 5,000 non-performing mortgages from the banks for some €720 million.
It is reported the €2 billion overseas investment fund aims to buy up to 15,000 distressed mortages here.
After securing the homes as assets, Arizun would rent them back to families for seven years or longer, after which residents could buy their house back.


#3776

This made me chuckle…

rte.ie/news/courts/2017/051 … ig-farmer/
A pig farmer who told two repossession men to strip naked and get into a pen with an agitated boar has been sent to jail following an unsuccessful appeal against conviction. On the day in question, Mr Mulvey and Mr Tighe arrived in a truck with a view to taking possession of the property or securing payment.
Mr Justice Birmingham said it was not really disputed that the two men were threatened in a very aggressive manner and told “their heads would be ripped off”. They were told to get on their knees and pray, which they did, and they were ordered to strip naked.


#3777

Ha ha threatening to murder someone is funny!


#3778

You haven’t seen Deliverance then? (Our own inbred hillbillies would give these guys a run for their money.)

youtube.com/watch?v=pRxUbv90lLI


#3779

Interesting post by Jim Stafford over on AAM about a Vulture fund and a bank cutting a deal to ‘save’ a family home worth 900k.
askaboutmoney.com/threads/h … me.203705/

This is from 1 of the posts on the thread which summarises the circumstances of the Debtor in question

Some people are doing all right, thats for sure


#3780

I read that one also. They managed to convince both the bank and the vulture fund that they would get more by accepting a fairly paltry settlement than by pursuing a judgement mortgage on the family home. They were relying on the fact that no Irish judge is going to allow the sale of the “de family home”, despite the fact in this case that the hubbies share was €450k, and that the wife’s half would have been enough to buy something else to downsize into.

It would also have been open to the creditors to pursue payments from the debtor’s income for five years after the DSA, but I presume that by finding sufficient funds in the wife’s “meagre savings” they were able to convince the debtors not to do this. All in all, yer man has a pretty handsome income and they get to keep an almost million quid house, debt free. You could argue the creditors got as much as they were ever going to. You could also say that Jim Stafford – in spite of distancing himself from the original statement – has been true to his word in keeping people in a home that “befits their standing in society”.