Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions

mortgages

#4041

Asking €695K, after all that.

What happened to their “€900,000 Dublin home” ?


#4042

Article in Irish Times today titled ‘Banks face ‘hectic’ loan restructuring as payment breaks end, Goodbody warns’

“Goodbody estimates that an average of 9 per cent of mortgages across AIB and Bank of Ireland]will be categories as impaired by the end of next year, including loans that were already in trouble before the coronavirus crisis. Almost 14 per cent of SME loans will likely be in the same category, it said.”

“The European Banking Authority (EBA) said on Monday that a blanket offering of loan payment breaks by EU lenders since March should be phased out on schedule at the end of this month, and banks should return to offering relief on a “case-by-case” basis.”

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/banks-face-hectic-loan-restructuring-as-payment-breaks-end-goodbody-warns-1.4361387


#4043

The latest Central Bank arrears report covering Q2 is due any day now. Should make interesting reading.


#4044

I’m actually looking forward to reading your analysis. I’m assuming the arrears report won’t include the people on the Covid repayment breaks?

FYI - In the Irish Independent today, there’s an article titled: “Mortgage break deadline looms next week for 37,000 householders”.

"Tens of thousands of people on mortgage payment breaks will find themselves having to meet repayments or be declared in default from next week.

A rolled-over three-month moratorium ends on Wednesday, leaving borrowers at the mercy of the banks – unless Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe insists on an extended holiday.

Mr Donohoe meets the banks on Monday, amid signs he will insist on the extension, which also makes sense for the balance sheet of domestic banks."

Link to Irish Independent article here: https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/mortgage-break-deadline-looms-next-week-for-37000-householders-39559828.html


#4045

New figures show that just over 4,700 mortgage accounts were more than 10 years in arrears in June.

And close to 12,000 residential mortgage accounts were between five and 10 years behind on their payments, according to the Central Bank.

Close to 9,600 accounts were overdue by between two and five years, a new breakdown of the length of time those behind on their payments shows…

…Commenting on the figures, David Hall of the Irish Mortgage Holders Organisation said those in long-term arrears were in huge difficulties.

“Will they all get a free house? I don’t think so. There is big trouble ahead for these households. It is critical those affected get proper advice to explore all options,” he said.


#4046

Mickey Mouse housing market. Watch the foreign banks bugger off…


#4047

Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions Q2 2020 figures

(Note 1: BTL figures are discussed separately here http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=50546)

(Note 2: Analysis of Restructured Mortgages can be found here http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=19&t=63422)

Report Link

https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/statistics/data-and-analysis/credit-and-banking-statistics/mortgage-arrears/residential-mortgage-arrears-and-repossession-statistics-june-2020.pdf?sfvrsn=6

Arrears

Repossessions

Restructures

Where Green = highest since records began and Blue = Lowest since records began


#4048

So Central Bank are now publishing a breakdwon of arrears of
2-5 years: 9,591
5-10 years: 11,936
10+ years: 4,745

Crazy numbers. 10+ years must be a first for any country in the world. Anyone else would have reposessed that property by then!


#4049

Expect the 10 year figure to jump dramatically in the second half of next year - there was a big spike in defaults after the Dunne ruling in July 2011.


#4050

Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions Q3 2020 figures

(Note 1: BTL figures are discussed separately here http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=50546)

(Note 2: Analysis of Restructured Mortgages can be found here http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=19&t=63422)

Report Link

https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/statistics/data-and-analysis/credit-and-banking-statistics/mortgage-arrears/residential-mortgage-arrears-and-repossession-statistics-september-2020.pdf?sfvrsn=4

Arrears

Repossessions

Restructures

Where Green = highest since records began and Blue = Lowest since records began


#4051

Arrears over 5 years now account for 41.3% of all arrears over 90 days.

How are there 5,014 cases in arrears over 10 years!

Edit: The 2020 repos are on course to break the 2019 record for lowest ever total. What happened to the so called Tsunami? We can’t even repossess cases 10 years old it seems…


#4052

So we now have
11,489 5-10 years in arrears
+
5,014 10+ years in arrears

16,503 5+ years in arrears

If we just sorted these out, that is almost 1 year of our current supply of new builds into the market
(link to new builds data here)


#4053

image


#4054

I’m sure the dignity-injection-program going full tilt will soon release stock of good sized family homes in highly sought after leafy suburbs with no arrears to speak of, ready to be snapped up by county councils and local authorities to reduce their waiting list and house those larger non-irish families, it’s very exciting period ahead for some… :whistle:


#4055

Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions Q4 2020 figures

(Note 1: BTL figures are discussed separately here http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=50546)

(Note 2: Analysis of Restructured Mortgages can be found here http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=19&t=63422)

Report Link

https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/statistics/data-and-analysis/credit-and-banking-statistics/mortgage-arrears/residential-mortgage-arrears-and-repossession-statistics-december-2020.pdf?sfvrsn=4

Arrears

Repossessions

Restructures

Where Green = highest since records began and Blue = Lowest since records began


#4056

The tsunami of repos continues I see…

-lowest ever annual figures for respossessions
-despite 5,266 in arrears >10 years - up 5% in Q4 2020 alone


#4057

#4058

Almost 29,500 mortgages in arrears for over a year

Another report from the Central Bank finds that 29,429 mortgage accounts have been in arrears for over a year.

The bank describes these accounts as a “legacy of the pre-Covid era”. Most of the arrears began during the financial crisis.

This figure is down from a peak of 60,995 accounts in arrears in June 2014 and represent 4% of all principle dwelling home mortgages and just over €6 billion in loans. They represent 54% of all principal dwelling mortgages in arrears.

The Central Bank estimates these mortgages represent about 25,000 households as some people have more than one mortgage.

About half of these mortgages are classed as “non-cooperating”.

The Central Bank carried out an analysis of a sample of over 8,000 of these mortgage accounts. It found the average age of the mortgage holder was 48 and the average amount outstanding was just over €153,000.

Half of long-term mortgage arrears borrowers owe more than 43% of their monthly income on debt repayments, with the average owing 61%. Approximately a third are unemployed.

The Central Bank’s report finds that just over half of those in long-term mortgage arrears have no “adjustment capacity available whatsoever” to pay something on their loans. But it also finds that 37% do have the capacity to make full repayment of their loans.

Based on a sample of borrowers in long-term arrears who have engaged with lenders, the report finds that 57% have sufficient income to clear over 50% of their loans. 25% could clear between 0-50% of their balances and 18% do not have the income to make any repayments.

The majority of long-term arrears borrowers are between 40 and 60. Around 12% are over 60, while couples with children make up 58%.


#4059

Here is the Central Bank press release
https://www.centralbank.ie/news/article/press-release-action-needed-by-lenders-to-resolve-long-term-mortgage-arrears-ed-sibley-13-july-2021

and speech
https://www.centralbank.ie/news-media/press-releases/speech-the-need-for-continued-focus-on-resolving-long-term-mortgage-arrears-ed-sibley-13-july-2021

Here are the 4 CB reports

Mortgage borrowers facing end of term repayment shortfalls

David Duignan and Allan Kearns*
July 2021
https://www.centralbank.ie/statistics/statistical-publications/behind-the-data/mortgage-borrowers-facing-end-of-term-repayment-shortfalls

13/07/2021 No.6 The economics of mortgage debt relief during a pandemic (Gaffney, McCann and Stroebel)

13/07/2021 No.7 Irish Mortgage Payment Breaks - Extensions and Expirations (Kelly, Lyons, O’Brien and Rice)

13/07/2021 No.8 Long-term mortgage arrears: Analytical evidence for policy considerations (Kelly, Lyons, McCann and O’Brien)


#4060

How many strategic defaulters have done an Immobile on it now that prices have increased?
I can’t pay, I can’t pay…oh hang on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nM0DCllIqoE