review 2009 predictions + make 2010 auguries

This thread contained a myriad of 2009 predictions made by pinsters which was locked on 1st Jan 2009 (a virtual time capsule of forecasting wizardry by the geniuses of the Pin :wink: ) - are we approaching the date to unlock it?

Also, it must be almost time to prepare our 2010 predictions?

for what it’s worth (not much), these were my 2009 predictions:

4/9 serious predictions - not great I’m afraid (maybe I should apply for a job in the Department of Finance)

Not bad Whizzbang.

2010 Predictions

  1. Euro to touch parity with GBP
  2. Euro to break all time high of $1.60
  3. Every bank in Ireland will raise variable mortgage rates by at least 1%
  4. Fingers Fingleton will still not have paid back the €1 million to Nationwide.
  5. Bertie Ahole will continue to use a state car and chauffeur paid for by taxing low income families.

I’ll wait until after the budget and more importantly, the world cup draw.

Here where mine for 09 (per the thread):

Income Levy 1% on All : Yes and more
2% on Top Rate, 1% on lower rate, no increase in ceilings: Done via the levy
Low Increases in SW: No, an increase
Raid the NPRF: Done
Charge Banks 400m for bail out: Yes but will they pay
Raise PRSI ceiling by large amount: No
CAT to 30%, CGT to Stay at 20% :NO CGT went up
Vat Rates up by 1%: .5% idiots
Massive Hit on Capital and Descretionary Budgets (Arts, Foreign Aid etc): Yes, above all, protect the pay, even if no services delivered
Misc Charges to Increase (eg Court Fees, ) : Yes
Increase in Excise Duties (cigs and Booze): Yes
Children Allowance Frozen, not taxed. Early child scheme abolished for new mummies and daddies.: Yes
Redundacy Scheme in Public Sector, plus extenion of carreer breaks.: No & Yes
Some sort of cackhanded effort to get the property market off death row: Yes loads all failures

Sort of maybe 6-7 out of 12. Alright , a C/B I suppose.

Predictions for 2010 - I will provide before the budget, next week. Not expecting much.

Reviewing 2009 predictions Coles2 seems to have been the most accurate, a lot of the predictors seemed to have been drinking too much of the ‘sky is always falling in’ kool aid.

For 2010

Marginally positive growth in GNP over the year
ISEQ around 3000 (still)
DJIA 12000
Gold 1500
EUR/GBP 0.825

What makes you think the pound will strengthen by 10% against the euro? Sounds a bit contrarian to me.

Well, my 2009’s were

I was hoping that in 2010 we could have sold the state to a wealthy, benevolent Gulf investor, but that now looks like it’s not going to happen.

At least one general election is a given. What flavour of government we end up is the next question … will FF be crushed or scrape by and do a deal with SF and the Greens or maybe even Labour? Will we end up with a rainbow coalition who pass a revised and expanded civil partnership act?

Plenty more job losses; I’d expect the QNHS to show unemployment above 15% for at least two periods, possibly above 20% for at least one, with a return to significant emigration, in excess of 30,000 (excluding returning foreign nationals) nett for the year.

Once house repossessions start to kick in and as stories of evictions start to spread the market gets really spooked. Buying a house, with the prospect of having it just taken away from you after you handed over hundreds of thousands of Euro on it will make mortgaging to buy look like dead money. Squatting becomes the new buying. Property prices and rents continue down. More and more former “middle class” families are told they are too poor to qualify for local authority affordable housing schemes.

Tom Parlon sounds the “all clear” for home buyers and claims there is a new era of cost effective housing (again). Dan McLaughlin starts to appear on national media again to cheer us all up with his dulcet tones. Austin Hughes get’s in the spirit of Movember and ditches the beard, we’re all shocked to find he’s been a woman all along. Bertie falls down again, hits his head and in a moment of honesty, tells us where all the money came from, where it went and that he is sorry for being the cheerleader for screwing it all up. It turns out he has a few 100bn under the mattress in the spare room in St. Lukes and uses it to pay off the national debt. Everyone agrees he’s a reformed character and he is immediately moved into to the Aras, carried aloft on the shoulders of the masses.

Meanwhile, back in the real world, 2010, the final year of the first decade of the third millennium, which all started out with so much hope and confidence for the future, is a pretty bleak one for Mick and Biddly Public here in Ireland.

Blue Horseshoe

Woohoo! I’d forgotten about that! :slight_smile:

Will wait for budget for specific 2010 predictions, but I think it will be more of the same, with less dramatic changes as the country starts to stagnate.

This goes to show that any auld idiot can be an economist!

Team 33 FTW…

Not too bad domestically, completely off the wall internationally!

Here are two scenarios
The Government introduces its budget which contains mainly increases taxes while cutting pay by a net 3% in the public sector. The GRA calls for “industrial action” and the minister of Justice orders the Garda Commissioner to arrest the GRA leadership. The Garda refuse, the commissionaire is sacked, and the guards go on an all out strike. The army is called onto the street, and riots ensue. Leinster House burns. International money markets take fright, and the government can’t pay any wages. The army attempts a coup to put in place a national government, led by David eggs, which fails, because of arguments over allowances to be paid for this job. Government disintegrates riots and complete anarchy follows. Sales of canned food soar.

The Government introduces its budget which contains mainly increased taxes while cutting pay by a net 3% in the public sector. Its two little, too late and the economy is set for years of stagnation. The public deficit hits 35bn.Deflation continues and property continues to fall, at a faster rate. Insolvencies and redundancies hit records, with the first quarter increasing by 200% over 2009. Unemployment hits 20%, emigration hits 50K per year. The public sector grumbles and has a few strikes. Everybody heads to the North shopping or to the pub. NTMA bond fails in 2nd quarter The ECB pulls the plug in the 3rd quarter, by refusing to recycle any more Govt bonds through the banking system, and an “advisory” committee, appointed by the ECB, and following a “request” from the government arrives in Dublin in September. This committee has many esteemed members on it from the ECB, the OECD, EU commission, and the IMF. The government accepts their “advice” to slash and burn, and promptly falls. Cue an election. The people of Ireland stay in the pub, watch sky sports, go shopping, and re-elect the same incompetents as before. Lowery tops the poll in Tipperary, Bertie in Drumcodra (he runs again for FF sake), Cowen in Offaly. Nothing happens and Ireland faces another lost decade.

  1. Unions roll over and accept PS pay cuts after some token shopping days of action.
  2. people accept they have to work harder for less
  3. Peak Oil occurs mid-year. No, not the fossil-fuel stupid, Peak Snake-Oil. This occurs when the Greens announce their Nitrogen Tax proposal.
  4. Global temperatures plummet, blamed on solar minimum. Bungaloid argues for orderly Nuremberg-style trials for eco-fascists. Nobody listens, Greens strung up from lamposts.
  5. All domestic banks nationalised except BOI.
  6. FG achieve overall majority by year end. New Era, economy recovers much more rapidly than foreseen.

2010 predictions

  1. EU steps in to shore up european countries with major economic problems, including Ireland. Introduces legislation that promises it will provide ireland with interest free loans in exchange for major cuts in budget expenditure.

  2. Harvey Normans closes down all irish stores.

  3. Unemployment climbs further to 18%.

  4. Government, realising that further cuts will be required, and things will get worse before they get better, will set a date for a general election.

  5. Globally economic growth remains low.

  6. Democrats lose majority in senate.

  7. Brazil wins world cup.

  8. Finally, more of a personal dream, FF to be wiped out as a mainstream political party. 8DD

2010

  • Ireland given soft draw in Euro championships qualifier using the hot ball draw trick. As a sop for Henry.
  • Woods goes on Trial. McIlroy finishes 2nd in 2 majors.
  • Munster crash and burn
  • Multinationals cut pay by 15%
  • No shouldering of the burden by the well paid or wealthy. Not until FF coffers are refilled for 2016 election.
  • Cost of government borrowing 200 bps above next highest western eu country.
  • International financiers do their sums on future liabilities due to pensions, debt, NAMA and banks. Label Ireland dead duck.
  • EU unoffically run our finances in return for loans. Impose spending and borrowing restrictions.
  • Zombie small businesses close in large numbers. Zombie developers and FF donors kept going.
  • Tax receipts fall by 20%
  • Commercial rents fall by so much that Lenihan can no longer say yields are one of the best in Europe (they become the worst)
  • Bertie and Keano blame everyone else for everything.
  • Ryanair has bumper year.
  • China 2009 miracle turns out to be one big inventory build up
  • Obama popularity 25%
  • Cowen mysteriously disappears from public eye. Lenihan takes over.
  • Public service realise their strikes are counter productive
  • Bankers, developers, politicians do not get their comeuppance.
  • Opposition so lame that no election needed.
  • Dollar weakens. Sterling strengthens on Tory victory.
  • Burgularies double.
  • Unemployment 15%. Only thanks to emigration and multinationals adding some jobs.
  • House prices fall only 12% according to PTSB/ESRI
  • Isobel calls bottom of property market 43 times.

2010 predictions:

  1. Unemployment; this will move past 500,000 quite rapidly (Apr\May) and will push the boundaries of 20% . Large emigration outflows fail to offset this sufficiently.

  2. Tax take will continue to erode and spending will be flat\slightly down due to increased SW commitments. GGD will be north of EUR 25,000,000,000 - and that’s before throwing away any more money into the banking cesspool and NAMA.

  3. House prices will fall another 20%+ according to the nonsense that is the PTSB\ESRI index.

  4. AIB and Bank of Ireland go into majority State ownership. EBS\ILP and the rump of INBS are shoved into a shotgun marriage.

  5. Nobody receives a criminal conviction for shenanigans at Anglo.

  6. Another year of deflation, 5% is my guess.

  7. No election. FF stagger on regardless.

  8. No meaningful PS strikes barring maybe a few token ‘days of action’ or work to rule childishness.

  9. We hit the second downswing of the W; large stock market falls worldwide. Dow goes below 7,000. Gold breaks towards\through $2000\oz.

  10. No default on Irish bonds as the EU continues to give us cover while setting our fiscal agenda. Our bonds spreads average 200 basis points above the krauts.

  11. Ireland do the Grand Slam again. Germany win the World Cup.

i think 2010 will be dominated by 2 events one inevitable and one signed off by a puppet in the White House to murder possibly millions

Ireland to default towards the end of 2010 as the economic collapse tears society apart

US/ Israel to attack iran leading to a fireball in the middle east and god knows what else XX

So next year with people queuing up to leave the country, unemployment nudging 20%, a crisis in the health service, Europe in control of our finances, Ireland with another grand slam under its belt do people think 2011 will be slightly better?