Right time to buy apartment in Dublin?

To rent a one bed apartment in Dublin 2 costs €850ish per month or there is an apartment for sale or €150,000.
Whats the opinion on buying now? should I hold off in case the prices drop more?

I would hold off if I were you. 1 Bed apartments will definitely go down in price. I rent a 1 bed (not the best but its ok) for 495e per month so maybe 850 is too high. Lower rent, lower value.

Don’t buy anything you are not prepared to live in (or own) for at least the next 5-10 years.

This rule always applies in my view, but especially now!

You’re comparing a short term (rental) proposition with a long term (purchase) proposition.

On the surface you appear only to be making a comparison of the two headline figures.

Leaving aside the probability of further price falls, worst case presented by Morgan Kelly suggests a possible further fall of 50% from here, you have many other factors to consider.

Make your calculations on the “real” cost of ownership including management fees, maintenance, probable property taxes, increased interest rates etc. all those things you don’t have to account for when you are renting.

Do you see yourself living in a one-bed apartment for the next 20 years? IMO one beds will be the weakest section of the market for the considerable future. Most are not designed for long term occupation, with poor storage space and most will be comparitively expensive to run having been designed with electric storage heaters.

Talk to people 8 -10 years older than yourself who rushed into buying one-beds in the last few years to “get on the ladder” many are stuck now, their circumstances have changed and they cannot sell due to huge negative equity. The move that they saw as giving them independence has turned into a mill stone.

Think about the long term commitment of buying and really consider what that means for you.

OP, could you post a link to the €150k apartment in D2? Can’t say I’ve seen many of those around.

daft.ie/1482861

Just the one on Daft for 175k

Theres actually a thread here on this one somewhere, a pinster is selling it in fact

www.daft.ie/1487531

Missed that as I put 150k minimum!!

viewtopic.php?f=23&t=7849&p=334468&hilit=wintergarden#p334468

I’d only buy an appartment if it is big enough to live comfortable for 20 yrs with one kid or two. which therefore means, at least 3 bed) OR
if I have the cash (and I mean all of it) and buy it as an investment for renting out - and for this something small, studio, one or two bed - something that you can rent for a fair price to one person or a couple.
Target rent for a 1-bed: 400-600 Euro p mth
Target rent for a 2-bed: 600-800 Euro p mth
price difference depends on location, furnished/not etc.

Do not buy something to let with a mortgage.

At least this is how it’s usually done on the continent.

Never.

Blocks of apartments will increasingly be owned by fewer and fewer owner occupiers. They will be run for the benefit of landlords seeking to maximise rent (or minimise costs!). If you can find a location that has small blocks that are largely owner-occupied with a good mix of ages, you might be okay, but otherwise you are setting yourself up for years of heartache.

Spot on… people seem to have the view of apartments as houses in the sky.
I’m aware of one example in the Netherlands where an individual was told the collective had decided their apartments needed a face lift and landed a 10k bill on their doorstep. When purchasing apartments it’s imperative to understand that you are part of a group. This group may not act in you interests. In the example I gave the collective were looking to upgrade as they were mostly owner occupiers while my contacts were renters. The flip side can just as easily happen as yoganmahew pointed out.

Totally agree with this, also non-Nama associated banks have already begun the process of assessing and appraising apartment blocks, in various states of construction with a view to disposal, I have seen, in a professional capacity some of these, and the standard of construction is unbelievable, but that’s another story, it’s the quantity coming down the line that will have the greatest affect, especially when Nama gets going of course.In Dublin alone by this time next year I would predict perhaps 10,000+ extra apartments on the market, from well built eg Sisk 250 apartments in Sandyford to unbelievable dross
elsewhere. So for me, now is the time to sell apartments, before the rush, certainly not buy.

I am the seller of the apt listed above (the D2 one). Interested to hear the opinions above. I was going to do a “what’s it worth” on it, as we have an offer on it at the moment from an apparently serious buyer.

What do pinsters think it will be worth in another 2 years? Happy to provide more details on the property if anyone wants them (objectively if I can)

Its hard to say, 1 Beds have a bad rep on the pin certainly. I reckon they will be unpopular in the wider world in 2 years.

Who would buy a 1 Bed? A prosepctive landlord or a FTB. If a landlord buys it will be worth a function of the yearly rent eg x14 x15 etc. which in 2 years must surely be less than now. If a FTB will it be worth wasting your stamp duty exemption on something whose price is so low it barely generates stamp duty and is difficult to sell on.

In the words of TUG, Burn the money and run…

As for what it would be worth, I dunno but I wouldnt pay more than 50-60k for my 1 Bed (though yours is probably nicer)

Evilal, I would say €125k in two years’ time but I’d guess many Pinsters would say lower.

Even though your apartment is in D2, I think that you are going to be im competition with apartments around the quays and IFSC. I am sure you have seen how many blocks there are around the IFSC, completed, semi-completed and started. There is already a significant over-supply in the area and if more of the blocks are finished then it will turn into an absolute bloodbath.

In two years time I am not sure what it will be worth but if you investigate who you will be in competition with and the economic outlook I think that you will be able to get a good idea of what it might be worth yourself.

Its easy for me to say this but my advice would be sell now for whatever you can get.

Very good location and the price is competitive relative to what else is out there. If the offer is near to asking I would take it, for the reasons dicsussed in the posts above.

Just in case the offer does not materialise, I would tidy the place up and take new photos before relisting. The box of junk in the fireplace and the box of nappies beside the bed does not create a good impression. It draws attention to the fact that most apartments are built with zero storage space. Stick them in the hallway outside when you take the photos!

Best of luck with the sale.

I agree with Edge. That’s 3/4x an average single Dublin salary, which is in the ballpark of sensible give or take.

The only debate would be whether Wintergarden is “average”. I would say probably yes, meaning expensive 1-bed apartments (the nicer new ones in Docklands, maybe some in D4 and D6) should be 200k+/-, and cheap ones 100k+/-. That would feel “normal” to me.

I also disagree with those implying apartments aren’t “real” homes. That is an entirely subjective judgement based on your circumstances and lifestyle. People in cities all over the world consider apartments to be homes so it should be the same here (nothwithstanding the atrocious quality of ours of course). I live in a ground floor apartment with my own front door and driverway. It’s really a mini-house and perfectly fine for a single person ( :frowning: ) medium-long term.

Do you think that a salary multiple is still a relevant valuation metric if there is a significant over-supply?