Wonder which insurer might be positioning for possible acquisition following the Irish operation uncoupling from the parent plc? European or US insurer?
Or is this Regulatory Arbitrage ???
Uncoupling from nasty UK regulators in favour of benign Irish ones??
Or subsidiary survival - set up a holding company with two subsidiaries. Transfer all the liquid good stuff into one of them and all the toxic in the other. Liquidate the bad one and continue the profitable business from the good one.
Tinfoil, yes. The Swissair/Crossair thing really scarred me!
Your guess is as good as mine. But my money is on potential acquisition. They (RSA) were being ‘eyed up’ recently, they are weak and a prime candidate for a purchase.
You got Hibernian (soon to rebrand as Aviva -it’s a long story and beyond the scope of this post) fighting to retain #1 slot. Quinn snapping on Hiberian’s heels for the #1 slot (though that plan is in shreds now). Zurich got their own set of internal problems and service is in very, very bad as a result. Allianz got cash and trigger happy (could be the left field entrant), FBD are also a possibility but would ‘farmer’ shareholders approve the spend, it could impact those valuable dividends? AIG up on blocks, will not be flashing cash. Chubb, ACE, Travelers (all US insurers, specialist, niche insurers of specific market sectors, generally buy select books of business than entire operations unless part of a global strategy form their US HQ), QBE (another left field possible, they got big growth plans and on the acquisition trail). Don’t forget Generali, they want back in (that’s the beat on the street).
2009 is going to be great, plenty of eye-balling, plenty of pressures to harden rates (as profits go south at incredible speed). Capacity contraints may become a considerable problem as capital markets squeeze hence treaty and fac re issues which rolls down into the insurers. Yeap, it’s going to be fun next year.