So the economy is sinking, and we are all buggered. There’s no hope for any of us so we might as well all just give up and die.
Well if you believe the country’s prophets of doom, that is where Ireland is this weekend. The only problem is, it isn’t the truth, nor is it the experience of industry leaders and businessmen to whom we spoke this weekend.
Naysayers like David McWilliams and that other prophet of doom, RTE’s George Lee, have been busy spreading the woe and creating fear, all the while hoping we watch their television shows and buy their books. They are no more than opportunistic cranks profiting handsomely from peddling their misery.
McWilliams, who has unleashed his latest bible, The Generation Game, upon our mortal souls has compared Ireland’s success to that of Uruguay’s at the beginning of the 20th century during the first era of globalisation.
Essentially, McWilliams is saying that we, like Uruguay, have put too many eggs in one basket and left ourselves exposed.
He said: “Let this [Uruguay] be a lesson to those of us who think this time it’s different. Everything goes in cycles and Uruguay is our warning sign. The writing’s on the wall, if we choose to read it”.
But why then do we listen to them? It is as if we need some one telling us off. The old Catholic guilt thing again. We need to be told in simple straightforward means how best to run our lives. God forbid we could think for ourselves.
But the simple truth of the matter is that the slow down in the construction market has not led to a wider recession. Despite RTE’s best attempts to signal the Northern Rock run as the first major signpost of recession, industry leaders and top business leaders have this weekend rubbished such claims of economic collapse, and are stating loudly that business is booming.
Ian Galvin is chairman of Mosaic, which owns many leading high street stores such as Karen Millen, Oasis, Coast, Warehouse and Principles. Galvin, much more than anyone, is a voice of authority when it comes to what is happening on the street and he has said that contrary to the doom and gloom, trade is brisk.
"We are making big plans for Christmas in terms of what stock we are planning to shift, and you don’t do that if things are going badly. But I look at it today, kids wouldn’t know what a recession is or was.
“I was listening to the radio to Marion Finucane two weeks ago and a guy rang in to tell her to shut up moaning about the economy. That’s my view.”
But it is not just on the high street that movement is as strong as ever. Ireland is enjoying one of its best years in history in terms of car sales, both old and new.
Cyril McHugh of the Society of the Irish Motoring Industry, the car dealers’ representative body, said that 2007 has been an “exceptional year” for sales, which is between 5 and 6 per cent up on 2006.
“So far, 2007 has been the second best year in history for car sales. It has been exceptionally good in terms of sales moving. It is clear that the SSIAs had some impact but even with all the negative talk there is no sign of a downturn.”
Another sector where activity is strong, is the fine art and antiques industry.
James Halloran of Adams Fine Art Antiques has said they have had a “very strong year” so far, with several record sales being recorded in their auction room.
He said: “Summer is our quiet time but we had a sale last Tuesday during which we shifted 85 per cent of the lots, which is incredible. Before the summer we have had a fantastic run. For example, in May, we sold a number of Paul Henry’s for over €1m. I think people also see art and antiques as a good investment, particularly at a time of uncertainty in the housing sector.”
This weekend, the Sunday Independent also spoke with a number of travel agents and airlines who are reporting brisk trade, with both Ryanair and Aer Lingus continuing to expand their respective operations.
So not only have various industries defied the gloom merchants but, unfortunately for them, so do the facts.
According to the Department of Finance last week, Ireland is officially still on course for 5.3 per cent growth. Now, the spokeswoman said that they only officially predict two times a year and their pre-budget estimate may come down.
We all know it will, but Brian Cowen has repeatedly said that the economy will grow in the region of 3.5 to 4.5 per cent, which is, by anybody’s standards, bloody good.
Also, housing experts and big builders have said that it is still very good news for the construction sector.
So, why don’t we start actually listening to the true voices of authority, the business owners, on how the economy is performing and not these jumped up so-called experts who are spreading the doom for their own financial benefit.